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Does Government Weather Forecasting Endanger Lives?
Fox News ^ | 8/22/07 | John Lott

Posted on 08/22/2007 7:05:42 AM PDT by NY.SS-Bar9

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1 posted on 08/22/2007 7:05:43 AM PDT by NY.SS-Bar9
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

No. What a stupid article.


2 posted on 08/22/2007 7:06:08 AM PDT by r9etb
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

I don’t know but the weather channel is pretty pathetic about predicting local weather. I was 10 minutes into a strong storm this morning before the warning for my area was given.


3 posted on 08/22/2007 7:08:08 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Greed is NOT a conservative ideal.)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

No, wreckless reporting from the eye of the hurricane endangers lives.


4 posted on 08/22/2007 7:08:36 AM PDT by Yo-Yo (USAF, TAC, 12th AF, 366 TFW, 366 MG, 366 CRS, Mtn Home AFB, 1978-81)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

Maybe they need to get out of the prediction service business and just report the weather.

Why do we want a private business to get blame and liability for this.

Besides, didn’t the farmers almanac already do this?


5 posted on 08/22/2007 7:10:42 AM PDT by edcoil (Reality doesn't say much - doesn't need too)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
I have noticed that weather alerts here are usually hysterical for no reason. For example, several times we have a SEVERE WEATHER ALERT posted and when you read it, a 10 degree drop in temperatures is all that is predicted. Once this summer, the entire state of Iowa was under a STAGNATION ALERT. It ended at the borders of the state in each direction. I guess the wind was not blowing.

In my opinion, severe weather alerts should only be issued if there is a real danger. The frequency of these alerts caused them to be ignore.

6 posted on 08/22/2007 7:15:19 AM PDT by w1andsodidwe
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

The hype comes from privately owned weather services (e.g. TWC) hawking for advertising. The more they stir doom, the more people will tune in.


7 posted on 08/22/2007 7:16:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse (McClatchy News report: Half the nation's families earn below the median family income)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
It is one of the few federal agencies that is cost effective and does a fairly good job!
8 posted on 08/22/2007 7:19:59 AM PDT by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (Remember the Alamo, Goliad and WACO, It is Time for a new San Jacinto)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
At one point Google News had Dean as a ‘catastrophic’ level 5 hurricane. I hit refresh and it was a category 1.
9 posted on 08/22/2007 7:26:12 AM PDT by kinoxi
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

Yes,and
no.


10 posted on 08/22/2007 7:26:35 AM PDT by larryjohnson (USAF(Ret))
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
Lott's usually on target, but he misses here.

Despite dire predictions from the National Hurricane Center, no hurricanes hit the U.S. last year. This year they are again predicting as many as 10 hurricanes, up to five of them hitting the U.S.

First of all, I don't see ANY seasonal hurricane forecast predicting the number of hits - instead, they usually predict a statistical chance of a given part of the coast getting hit.

Second, you can have a very active hurricane season and have no hits on the US, and vice versa - Andrew happened during an otherwise slow year.

Third, forecasts are just that - forecasts. Last year, there was an unexpected early el Nino.

And all I see from Accuweather is hype.

11 posted on 08/22/2007 7:29:35 AM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: kinoxi
At one point Google News had Dean as a ‘catastrophic’ level 5 hurricane. I hit refresh and it was a category 1.

Going over the Yucatan will do that to a hurricane.

12 posted on 08/22/2007 7:30:07 AM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

The private weather services (Accu-Weather and TWC) get all their data from NOAA/NWS. They simply do not have the resources to gather the data (satellites, Cray computers etc); they just put their own predictions together. TWC is mainly entertainment now. IMHO, the data gathering and forecast probality should be left to NOAA/NWS. Ever notice that they never say it WILL rain, rather that it MIGHT rain ....

Another note - Ole ex-Senator Ric Santorum wanted to privatize (Accu Weather is in State College PA). Groups like BOAT US were vehemently opposed to this and contributed to his opponent. Lots of boaters could give a rat’s a!! about abortion but wanted to keep the free non-commercial weather radio.


13 posted on 08/22/2007 7:36:46 AM PDT by Seajay (Ordem e Progresso)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
Yeah sure, the media sells hype, but as more and more people move the coastal areas, it is necessary.

Those of us that grew up on the coast understand hurricane prep starts June 1st.

14 posted on 08/22/2007 7:37:47 AM PDT by SouthTexas
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

I followed the entire history of Dean from a disturbance off the coast of Africa to it’s current status. The predictions, both government and private, had Dean going just about everywhere except where it eventually went, from out to sea in the Atlantic, up the East Coast, into the Carolinas, Miami, the Keys, Hispanola, and the Gulf Coast. Predicting the course of a hurricane is not easy, and if this writer thinks he can do better, then let’s see him make his own predictions and see how accurate he is. If he prefers only to bitch about other people’s predictions, he can just STFU.


15 posted on 08/22/2007 7:37:47 AM PDT by Fresh Wind
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To: NY.SS-Bar9

John Lott should stick to things he knows about.


16 posted on 08/22/2007 7:44:39 AM PDT by Redbob (WWJBD - "What would Jack Bauer Do?")
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To: dirtboy

The question is:

Does the government lower the quality of forecasts by competing in a market better served by private enterprise?


17 posted on 08/22/2007 7:46:47 AM PDT by NY.SS-Bar9 (DR #1692)
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To: NY.SS-Bar9
Does the government lower the quality of forecasts by competing in a market better served by private enterprise?

I don't see how this can be proven, given that weather forecasting itself is highly error-prone, so how do you discern poor quality due to government forecast from poor quality due to the inherent nature of the field itself? I've seen nothing from Accuweather that makes me think they are a marked improvement over the NWS.

18 posted on 08/22/2007 7:53:56 AM PDT by dirtboy (Impeach Chertoff and Gonzales. We can't wait until 2009 for them to be gone.)
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To: cripplecreek
I don’t know but the weather channel is pretty pathetic about predicting local weather. I was 10 minutes into a strong storm this morning before the warning for my area was given.

The weather channel gets the local forecast from the National Weather Service. Any alerts/warnings are put out by NWS. The Weather Channel only delivers the message - they don't create the alert/warning.

19 posted on 08/22/2007 7:54:43 AM PDT by bkwells (Liberals=Hypocrites)
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To: NautiNurse
The hype comes from privately owned weather services (e.g. TWC) hawking for advertising. The more they stir doom, the more people will tune in.

Is it possible that NOAA, with 800+ million in tax dollars, forces TWC and others to rely on a more sensational style to compete?

20 posted on 08/22/2007 7:55:39 AM PDT by NY.SS-Bar9 (DR #1692)
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