Skip to comments.Draft report logs bleak outlook for Iran
Posted on 08/23/2007 7:54:00 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - A draft intelligence report on Iran suggests a change in the Tehran regime appears unlikely any time soon despite growing public anger over the country's economic woes, U.S. officials said Thursday.
The report also anticipates little progress in getting Iran to halt its nuclear program or stop supporting militant groups in the region, officials familiar with the draft said on condition of anonymity because the report has not been released.
The latest in a series of reports from the nation's 16 intelligence agencies, the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is nearly complete and could be shared with President Bush and other policymakers within weeks, said the officials. One said it is expected to be completed as soon as next week.
It is one of four reports the intelligence community is wrapping up on the Persian Gulf. Two others look at Iran's nuclear program and its military and conventional threat.
And an update on the situation in Iraq was released Thursday.
The report on Iran's political situation looks at issues ranging from the economy to its weapons programs, the officials said.
It says that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will continue in power despite rising discontent with the worsening economy, the officials said.
With the backing of the unelected clerical leadership that controls Iran, hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected on a populist agenda in 2005, promising to bring oil revenues to every family, eradicate poverty and tackle unemployment. His failure to keep those promises has provoked increasingly fierce criticism over recent months from both conservatives and reformists, who point to rising housing, food and oil prices, including the recent decision to ration fuel.
The new intelligence report also says Iran will continue to pursue a nuclear program that the United States and others believe is aimed at developing nuclear weapons, the officials said. Tehran denies that and says the program is for power generation.
Addressing another dispute between Washington and Tehran, the report also says Iran will continue to cause problems in Iraq, the officials said.
The U.S. government alleges that elements of Tehran's military are equipping and training militias involved in sectarian killings, roadside bombings of U.S. troops and other violence in Iraq allegations that Iran denies.
U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker met in Baghdad early this month with his counterpart from Iran, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, on the subject. Though it was the third round of U.S.-Iranian security talks in just over two months, officials have reported no progress.
U.S. officials and others also have criticized Iran for supplying money and weapons to the Shiite Muslim extremist group Hezbollah, which is on the U.S. government list of terrorist organizations.
The new intelligence estimate foresees that Iran will continue as a main backer of the group, along with Syria, the officials said.
The U.S. broke diplomatic relations with Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.
The lingering poor relations have been exacerbated in recent years by rising tensions over Iran's nuclear program and U.S. allegations that Tehran is supporting armed groups in Iraq.
Iran said it had uncovered spy rings organized by the U.S. and its Western allies and has detained a number of Iranian-Americans.
The United States in recent months warned U.S. citizens against traveling to Iran, accusing Islamic authorities there of a "disturbing pattern" of harassment after the detention of a fourth Iranian-American for alleged espionage.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, center, and his visiting Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, right, pass by Azerbaijani honor guard during official welcome ceremony in Baku, Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2007. The leaders of Azerbaijan and Iran met Tuesday and stressed solidarity, saying the neighboring nations share converging views and should increase cooperation. The warm words mask tension in Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim former Soviet republic that is a secular state, about influence from its larger southern neighbor, an Islamic republic. Azerbaijanis are also concerned about Iran's treatment of its large ethnic Azeri minority.(AP Photo/Oqtay Mamedov)
It’s not a question of if we go into Iran but When.
I could have told them all this
It will never happen unless we win Iraq.
We won? Did we? Hussein’s been gone for a while now, have we won ???
If we won why are we still losing men and women.
If the US does not take out Iran’s known and suspected nuclear facilities, Israel almost assuredly will. But I would rather the US do the deed. For one thing, we are more capable of doing so effectively. And to demur—and leave it all up to tiny Israel to clean up this mess—would be a huge cop-out, I believe.
winning in Iraq would be 70 percent easier without Iranian/syrian intervention.
“If we won why are we still losing men and women.”
Because of Iran.
But we have yet to defeat sectarianism. And until we do we have not won in Iraq. We are defeating Al-Quadia, but not the sectarianism that is Islam and Iraq and the Middle East in general. Sunnis, Kurds, and Shia will never get along despite the potential for prosperity under democracy.
I recommend sending my husband over there to uncover the truth...
Last I heard we are letting the French negotiate our surrender.
Are these the same people that put out the memo that said it would take weeks/months for us to take Baghdad? Just wondering.
Dang. This thread sure pulled in a bunch of happy positive posters!
We might not be HAPPY posters,but we’re kinda realistic !!!
LOL. Mmmmmkay. Whatever you call it.
You need to get on SandRat’s good news pinglist and maybe you’ll quit being so pessimistic. There’s a heck of a lot of good stuff going on - the media just won’t report it.
SandRats a good guy, a little naive but a good guy !!!
“I like the idea of 100% control before we move up the food chain.”
I don’t see 100% control happening with Iran backing the “Insurgents” through alliance with Syria and factions in other ME Nations we aren’t supposed to know about.
Iran has to be stopped to effectively control the ME situation with or without Saudi Arabia.
Can I just ask where you get your inside information?
I wonder if this nifty intel report was compiled by a protege of Valerie Plame perhaps with an on scene visit by some former diplomat with special knowledge of the area.
“But we have yet to defeat sectarianism.”
Well, did the U.S. gubmint ever come up with a way to make the Hatfields and the McCoy’s join up to form a knitting group?
Do you notice that everything in this report and in the previous report on Iraq is reported as fact EXCEPT for the issue of Iran equipping terrorists in Iraq, which is reported as merely an "allegation?"
You mean "realistic" like the New York Times and CNN?
LOL!! Somehow I knew you’d say something like that. ;-)
We went into Iraq to get the terrorist. The enemy has not changed just their tactics.
Actually, we went to Iraq to get Saddam Huessain and to resolve the issues raised in the war that had been continuing since 1991.
The war was to eliminate Saddam and to stabilize the Gulf.
The current war results from alliances developed after the invasion and is in fact a different enemy related to Al Qeada and the forces defeated in Afghanistan.
2. Stabilize the Gulf - you got to be kidding. The middle east has been at war long before America was born. Bush Sr made the right call.
You continue to misunderstand. The elimination of Iraq as a continued threat will and has stabalized the Gulf. Iran is not trying to slip into the vacuum left when Saddam/Iraq is gone.
When it all gets sorted out, Iraq will join the Gulf community.
The stabilazation of the Gulf is a completely seperate issue from the “mideast”,Palestinian/Lebanon’Syria/Israel ongoing war.
Iran will not achieve lasting reform unless an internal revolt has mullahs strung up from every street light. Otherwise they will just get one set replacing another set
We are trying to make Iraq a democracy. "Gulf Community" Name a neighbor who will accept a democracy.
The stabilazation of the Gulf is a completely seperate issue from the mideast,Palestinian/LebanonSyria/Israel ongoing war.
Really??? If you think Iran threatening Israel of extinction in the near future a separate issue.
Naive? I'd wager that SandRat knows more about what's going on in Iraq than you do, my dear. :-)
Welcome home, even if it is for only a little while. Hope you’re enjoying your R&R.
CGSC Graduate, Successful Command, BN - Theater level Staff assignments around the world, Joint Staff assignment supporting J-6Z, Retired Army, working for the MI Branch supporting Software Systems used by the Army MI/Army/Navy/AirForce/Marine Corps world-wide, in daily contact with returning/currently serving troops either face to face or via email, and we won’t even get into Security Clearnce levels with caveats. That could well be a fairly safe bet to cover.