The Iranian Time Bomb (Ledeen's new book)

The first salvo was the attack on the American Embassy in Tehran in the fall of 1979, leading to the seizure of American hostages, a crisis that lasted 444 days. The war continued with the assassination of American diplomats and military personnel in Europe and North Africa. The latest fronts in that war are in Afghanistan, Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq. Iran arms, funds, trains, and directs a variety of terror groups, numbering tens of thousands of terrorists, regardless of their religious or ethnic makeup.

It is a mistake to believe that Iranian mullah leaders think like those of traditional nation states. They are religious zealots. They openly welcome the end of the world, which would usher in the millennium, under the sway of the long-vanished 12th Imam. They say they intend to precipitate the millennium by using atomic bombs on Israel. That is a chiliastic vision that embraces the murder of millions of us.

The Iranian Time Bomb suggests that it's time for us to hold firm. It includes a final chapter that was written close to publication.

"Michael A. Ledeen has written a knowing book about Iran's ways. His is a book that lays bare the cruelties of the radical theocracy and its ambitions beyond its borders. After Ledeen's book, the illusions about Iran should finally be put to rest. A smart and unsentimental work."

--Fouad Ajami, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies

...but if we go in it’ll only get the Iranians allied behind the extremists and the Mullahs....

So maybe we shouldn't have bombed the Germans and Japanese because it would've allied the people with their Nazi/fascist leaders?

Look, this threat must be addressed, and sooner is better from our perspective. What the average person in the street thinks is largely irrelevent-they are controlled in Iran in largely the same manner as the German and Japanese citizenry was.

A quick and extremely strong series of strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and its military will cripple the regime without too much of an effect on its people - and that's what we should do before we wake up one day to either a city turned into a mushroom cloud, or the announcement that Iran or some terrorist group has nukes hidden in 10 of our cities.

Sure they maybe able to make a few lucky shots but they have no staying power. No endurance

A "few lucky shots" could result in several million Americans dead and an economy dealt a blow like its never seen. Imagine bombs in NYC's financial district, DC, Houston's harbor, LA and Chicago. Aside from the horrendous casualties, where's your economy now? And who else - who DOES have staying power, like the Russians or Chinese - decides to take advantage of things while we're on our knees for a time?

Is this a likely scenario? Not necessarily. But stranger things have happened in history, esp. the history of religious wars. No, thank you, I would not like even the possibility of the nutjob Iranian regime getting its hands on nukes. They've got 3,000 centrifuges, apparently enough to build 1 bomb per year...but they're talking about building up to 50,000. Do you really want to deal with that?

Iran’s got to be dealt with, but I don’t see how we have the reason or ability to do it right now beyond air support for a country that is actually threatened by Iran (Israel).

Reason - to stop these folks from achieving their long-sought goal of dominating the entire Mideast, with all of its oil resources. They've made no secret that they want us out of that region, because we are all that can stop them. This isn't just an Israel thing. But let's say that it is - what do you think will happen if Israel is nuked? They'll hit back - at ALL of their enemies. Aswan Dam-nuked. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran-nuked. What do you think that'll do to the world economy? And what do you think that a wrecked world economy will lead to (hint: look at the 1930's and 1940's).

Ability - we have the ability with air and naval assets to virtually completely destroy the Iranian military as an effective force in a matter of days. We can obliterate or blockade their oil production and oil refining capacity. Iran's nuclear facilities can likewise be utterly decimated. So what if we don't get every single facility - we'll get enough, and enough of their scientists, to throw their program back 10 or more years. When combined with the destruction of their military and oil revenue stream, the regime will fall quickly. Oh, and none of those actions need to produce large numbers of civilian casualties.

The Germany/Japanese comparison doesn’t wash, those were 1st world nations bent on expansion and global control (and had a realistic means to accomplish it). Iran doesn’t have nearly the economy or military to do that.

The comparison is very relevant. If Iran's leaders can get the US out of the area (and if a Dem is elected next year and they retain Congress, the troops will be coming home no matter the consequences), then they are free to either directly take over much of the Persian Gulf or intimidate the smaller states into concessions that basically strip them of most of their sovereignty. If Saudi Arabia falls - and it isn't the most stable regime on Earth - it will be a bigger disaster than when the Shah got kicked out, by a long shot.

Getting hold of the revenues and assets of a few other states will give them the means to acquire a very good and large military in fairly short order - remember, the Russians are already falling all over themselves to sell them anything, and that process would only accelerate. You know, Saddam tried it and nearly succeeded - but Iran has 3 times the population of Iraq, more wealth to begin with, and an educated populace (for that part of the world). I wouldn't underestimate them.

An Iran run by a US friendly government, while not an opressive totalitarian with a secret police like the Shah, would be ideal for our future and peace in the region. Is it possible? I don’t know. But the more I read about the pro-western youth in Iran and the general unpopularity of the Shia government, the more I think just “bombing them” isn’t the most intelligent thing to do.

That's an ideal long-term solution, and I think that we'll eventually get there - heck, if the Communists could be kicked out after 75 years in power, then so can these mullahs. However, "eventually" may not be soon enough. The mullahs and Achmadinijad (or however you spell his name) may be a bit crazy, but they aren't stupid. Unless we stop them soon, they'll have what Hussein never did - nukes. That, plus accurate missiles that can hit targets in Europe. Try dealing with that - we'll be far worse off than by wiping out their military and nuclear facilities.

We face no good scenarios here. The Iranians have lots of money and technology (or access to it via the use of their money), they hate our guts (the leaders, anyway), and they DO have a plan to dominate that part of the world. Sooner or later, we'll lose interest in that part of the world and essentially leave. Then they'll largely get what they want - who would stop them?

It isn't necessary that they have well-defined plans to "take over the world" - because the Persian Gulf region is a great treasure house...control it (esp. with nukes and long-range missiles), and you can blackmail everyone else. Remember the old saying: "grab them by the b@!!$ and their hearts and minds will follow." That's their plan.

We don’t need troops on the ground, except perhaps to seize their refinery (singular), and maybe some special ops (i.e. fast in, fast out) to make sure about the destruction of the nuke facilities.

I’m not sure that Israel can do as thorough of a job as we can on the nuke facilities - they don’t have the numbers of planes or missiles that we do, and they’ll be giving up a lot of payload capacity to gain range. We’re right next door, or a few dozen or a couple hundred miles out to sea, and Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia are not going to be the least bit suspicious about us putting planes in the air (though hundreds at one time will be noticed in Iran, if the F-117s haven’t poked their eyes out first).

Re: escalation and lone wolf status: if the French, English and Germans are with us in public, and most of the Arab states are (in private, of course) as well, then there’s no lone wolf status, and the possibility of escalation is significantly reduced. If done the right way, it’ll be more or less a fait accompli anyhow - it ought to be over in 2-3 days if we do a **real**shock & awe campaign (unlike the not so shocking and not so awe-inspiring first day or 2 of the Iraq II campaign).

Hugo Chavez is no threat to us now - he has no nukes, no missiles that can hit our territory, their air force and navy are complete jokes, and most of his own people hate him and would likely applaud if he caught a JDAM.

I agree that our borders are a big problem. However, straightening out that situation and the 12+million who are here illegally, is a multi-year program even if EVERYONE agrees that it should be done (don’t hold your breath). Iran’s threat is far more imminent, and the solution is not along the lines of Iraq or Afghanistan (i.e. no ground troops, no nation building). The envisioned campaign is air and missile attacks against hundreds of fixed and known targets.

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