Steve McIntyre Finds new NASA Hansen World temp errors

Climateaudit.org ^ | 9/4/07 | Steve McIntyre

[Freep EE]

Steve McIntyre says: September 4th, 2007 at 6:08 pm

I’ve posted an update to the post, setting out what I believe to be the most plausible answers. Thanks to everyone who participated and particularly to John Goetz for framing the problem and then solving the calculation of the delta.

The next puzzle, as John G articulated, is to figure out how Hansen calculated seasonal and annual averages when there is missing data. However, even without solving this puzzle, the present evidence is sufficient to establish that Hansen’s method of combining different scribal versions is erroneous and has corrupted his entire data set. At this point, we do not know whether the errors introduce a bias into the trend results or whether the corruption is equally distributed up and down. At the same stage of the Hansen Y2K error, there was a similar question: the error was sometimes up and sometimes down, but, overall it introduced a 0.15 increase in U.S. data. This particular Hansen error affects data worldwide, not just in the U.S. My impression is that it will not be random overall but will cause the reported trend to be somewhat higher than the trend calculated without this particular error; however, this is just an impression right now.

My impression is that there is an overall bias

[Freep EE]

Steve and team on his Weblog may have very well found a global mistake on Hansen's GISS temperature calculations. Steve as you may or may not remember proved the "Hockey Stick" by Mann was a farse as well as he justy recently found the NASA USA GISS temps were wrong and the US has not warmed since 1934---developing---keep looking to see when this story breaks!!

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Go Steve McIntyre! Get a FOIA request and force Hansen to release the code!

[TenthAmendmentChampion]

Ping

[muawiyah]

Hansen calculated seasonal and annual averages the old fashioned way ~ he "proxied them in".

That's how they get temperature data for most of Africa, the Sahara and Gobi deserts, the atmosphere of the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, and all the other large ocean basins ~ just "proxy them in" and you got your answers to everything!!

[sageb1]

bttt!

[SierraWasp]

Too hot to handle, PING!!! Hey Ernest! I goofed up and this big red message said to me:"Could not find anybody named 'Ernest at the Breach'"

[donna]

Interesting column:

The Year the Global Warming Hoax Died
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1890611/posts

[xcamel]

FReepmail me to get on or off

Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown

New!!: Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH

Ping me if you find one I've missed.

---

updating the story so far...

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

GIGO

[rfp1234]

Woo hoo! The term "Hansen Error" is destined to enter the lexicon of all statisticians, for generations to come.

[M203M4]

Has there ever been a case of the errors being of a nature unfavorable to the “humans and capitalism are bad” hypothesis?

[fanfan]

Thanks for the ping.

This one man, Steve McIntyre, is going to save the world billions of dollars by exposing the GW scam.

[Mikey_1962]

When are we going back to the Coming Ice Age???

[rellimpank]

—here’s hoping Hansen achieves the same sort of ignominy in “climate change” research as Micheal Bellisles has in Colonial firearms research—

[SouthTexas]

The term "Hansen Error Fraud" is destined to enter the lexicon of all statisticians, for generations to come.

[sergeantdave]

“Hansen’s method of combining different scribal versions is erroneous and has corrupted his entire data set...”

The two key words in the story:

Hansen + corrupt.

[secretagent]

Steve as you may or may not remember proved the "Hockey Stick" by Mann was a farse as well as he justy recently found the NASA USA GISS temps were wrong and the US has not warmed since 1934---developing---keep looking to see when this story breaks!!

I don't know if Steve McIntyre would claim the US trend overall has not warmed since 1934.

Yes, 1934 just barely edges out 1998 and 2005, but individual yearly temperatures don't make a trend.

[LiteKeeper]

read later

[Freep EE]

Trend or not-the US has not hit a temperature as high as 1934& and addition Hansen et al has not addressed the divergence problem. I suspect the satellite temps are correct and Hansen surface temps are corrupt and have errors due to UHI effects

[cinives]

Precisely. There is no warming trend like the GW high priests are claiming.

[#1CTYankee]

Huh? here is an official station not only are the calculations considered correct but this is at University Of Arizona. It is suppose to be located at least 100ft. from pavement so it can't influence temperature readings.

[olezip]

My impression is that there is an overall bias

It is with great sadness that I have to agree with your statement. Yet, I have always believed that NASA scientists are above reproach because they are apolitical in their work. Yes, we all have prejudices, but even so, a genuine scientist looks and reports the data and lets the chips fall where they may. Even the appearance of corruption should be nonexistent at NASA. I still believe that nearly all NASA scientists are genuine, including those at the GISS.

Perhaps the manned space program has maintained its integrity; there is zero room for error there.

[Ole Okie]

Hansen calculated seasonal and annual averages the old fashioned way ~ he "proxied them in".

Proxy = WAG?

Man, that's what's called "data enrichment".

[muawiyah]

Data Enrichment is one term they use, but you will find the “proxied in” expression in official reports submited to peer reviewed journals.

[SteamShovel]

Yes, we all have prejudices, but even so, a genuine scientist looks and reports the data and lets the chips fall where they may.

Hansen acts as if he has something to hide.

I think it is fraud driven by a political agenda while being paid by the taxpayers.

Manipulating data for a political outcome during NASA business hours and payroll should be just as illegal as doing political work using government financed office equipment.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Breach....?

Computers just can’t tell the difference...between a breach and a Beach/.....

Poor things are just high Speed Idiots....

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Hannity was saying that he has a video that he will show on his Foxnews Sunday show that will totally expose the Global Warming Alarmists....

[Fred Nerks]

It’s a bit late for me to fly over so I can catch the show LOL...let me know how it goes?

[olezip]

I think it is fraud driven by a political agenda while being paid by the taxpayers.

You have a point there. Many scientists, including Jim Hansen, have a vested interest in human caused global warming. They should let other scientists, with no vested interest, interpret the data and report the results. These folks should point out salient assumptions, strengths and weaknesses in the data used, and highlights of the methodology, all in plain English.

NASA must have a few empty suits and skirts to let Hansen run amuck and besmirch the NASA image for such a long time. Perhaps the managers want to avoid the risk of being called into Oversight Hearings by a Marxist controlled Congress. Oops, I meant to say a Democrat controlled Congress.

[Smokin' Joe]

This one man, Steve McIntyre, is going to save the world billions of dollars by exposing the GW scam.

It goes beyond billions of dollars, so far as to be unimaginable. Think of the regulations against the 'free' world which the other parts, many of whom are developing enemies would be immune.

Dear God, the man may have saved freedom as a concept from the minions of statist oblivion.

[Grampa Dave]

I wonder when trial lawyers will start decimating these Gorebull warming frauds.

If I had a business that was damaged by these Gorebull Warming BS/lies, I would go after some of these bastards in civil court.

[SteamShovel]

Dear God, the man may have saved freedom as a concept from the minions of statist oblivion.

I'd like to think so, but these socialists are not going to give up so easily. Now is the time they will get more irrational, loud, obnoxious, and even militant (after all, they have said the "deniers" are the greatest threat to the world and it's people).

They have the hardcore leftists and most of the world in the dark with a willing press, endless propaganda, and refusal to show the other side and do real investigative reporting.

RINO's are too timid to pull us away from the UN who are pushing this issue to gain power and redistribute wealth in the world.

The only way we will pull away from this is for a real conservative to win the WH in 2008 and a Congress/Senate that is no longer in control of the Dim socialists.

[Publius6961]

just "proxy them in" and you got your answers to everything!!

I much prefer the old label for "proxy":

SWAG

[RightWhale]

• When are we going back to the Coming Ice Age???

  We're there now as will become clear once we run out of Cheap Oil.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks E.

[muawiyah]

Even earlier there was the "Egyptian Variable". That's the number you use to multiply or add to your result to get the right answer.

Think about it ~ there are about 1200 of these temperature measurement stations in the United States. They are scattered around the country. In no way do they provide universal coverage of the temperature in all places at all elevations at all times.

Even here using the very best stuff it is still necessary to "proxy" data to estimate the average national temperature.

[Marine_Uncle]

I hope the video is well done and short on politics and long on verifiable facts.

[Ditto]

Yet, I have always believed that NASA scientists are above reproach because they are apolitical in their work.

ROTFLMAO.