Tropical or sub-tropical cyclone formation possible within 48 hours (Atlantic 30N 70W)

NOAA ^ | 2007-09-07 | (mariners 1-2-3 rule chart)

[Clive]

Accuweather report 0745 EDT 2007-09-07:

Tropical Development Still Expected off Southeast Coast

An area of low pressure located near 28 north and 70 west continues to encounter upper-level wind shear and drier-than-normal air on the western and northwestern sides. The dry air is being entrained into the circulation, which is limiting thunderstorm development near the center of the system. The upper-level trough which has sheared the system will break apart into two separate pieces Friday. One of which will lift off to the northeast, while the other one drifts southwestward. The low pressure near the surface is expected to remain nearly stationary for the next 12-24 hours, before a ridge of high pressure north of the system steers this low to the west. As the low pressure system tracks westward, there is an opportunity for tropical development to occur. We are projecting that this system will become a tropical depression either late on Friday or early Saturday, and it is also possible that further intensification to a tropical storm can occur by Saturday. Our projected path takes this storm system westward into the Carolinas on Sunday. Outer rain bands will affect the Outer Banks as early as Saturday night into Sunday morning. This storm system is expected to turn northward on Sunday and eventually to the northeast. The exact track remains to be seen, but areas from the Outer Banks to the Delmarva should monitor this system closely for development, and prepare accordingly. The latest intensity computer model forecasts show less intensification than previous runs have indicated, which suggests that hurricane status is less likely. However, we are near the climatological peak of hurricane season, and sea surface temperatures are very warm in this part of the Atlantic Basin, so this system should be closely monitored.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, we are keeping a close eye on tropical waves along 46 west and a new wave that has recently moved off the coast of Africa, roughly along 19 west. Both waves remain disorganized and do not show signs of development within the next few days. However, the wave along 19 west has a large thunderstorm complex trailing it, and some of the global computer models suggest this system has potential for development next week.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak

[poobear]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Looks like that High pressure is moving east like they predicted and steering it more SW or W. Carolina hit maybe?

[NautiNurse]

This is the same system that everyone was getting excited about last weekend.

[Clive]

This potential cyclone formation has been almost stationary on the chart for several days.

Accuweather thinks that it has potential to become a tropical depression by Friday with potential to become a tropical storm by Saturday, moving into the Outer Banks by Saturday and the Carolinas by Sunday.

[Brakeman]

It may not become a Category 5, but expect Category 5 reporting.

[Old Professer]

Around here we’d root for this thunderstorm to head our way; it so dry here the grass squeaks when the wind blows.

[Thermalseeker]

Around here we’d root for this thunderstorm to head our way; it so dry here the grass squeaks when the wind blows.

What's left of our grass crunches when the wind blows......

[Clive]

d'accord

I wasn't too concerned then.

Last week I had thought that it would go away but Accuweather thinks it could come ashore as a tropical storm this weekend.

Admittedly Accuweather seems to be generally a bit more pessimistic than NOAA.

[mewzilla]

Admittedly Accuweather seems to be generally a bit more pessimistic than NOAA.

Due to the fact that the folks at Accuweather, God bless 'em, don't have a political axe to grind?

[Shyla]

ping

[golfisnr1]

My son in Raleigh NC says bring it on. Dry as a bone for months. Reservoirs way down. Water use restrictions.

[Clive]

Special tropical disturbance statement from NOAA:

000 WONT41 KNHC 071242
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Clive]

The mariner's 1-2-3 rule chart was calling this disturbance a possible tropical or sub-tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

It is now showing it as a possible tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

[RaggedyAnn]

Here in the upstate of SC, the tree’s are whistling for dogs.

[Clive]

This disturbance is now sub tropical storm Gabrielle

NautiNurse has started a live thread here:

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle

Please make all further comments on this system to NautiNurse's thread.