Skip to comments.Experts warn of attack clues in Bin Laden video
Posted on 09/08/2007 11:48:23 AM PDT by MaestroLC
WASHINGTON - Intelligence experts scouring the latest video of Osama bin Laden for clues warned on Saturday that his message offers hints that Al-Qaeda is planning another attack on US interests.
In his first video appearance in three years, the elusive Al-Qaeda chief mocks the United States as "weak" and vows to escalate fighting in Iraq, all the while using language similar to the kind used ahead of other past attacks.
At times, bin Laden speaks directly to Americans, using plain language that "appears to be crafted in a way as to be understood by the average person on the street in Europe or in the US," said intelligence analyst Ben Venzke.
The latest video "contains phrases ... which serve as indicators that OBL's message is part of Al-Qaeda's efforts to fulfill its requirements to provide warning and a chance for the enemy to change its ways before executing an attack," Venzke said.
However, the message, delivered days ahead of the sixth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States in which 3,000 people were killed, gives no clues "to indicate when an attack ... would be attempted," he said.
The language, saying peace will befall "he who follows the guidance," mirrors that used in bin Laden's "European truce offer" of April 2004 in which he said: "Peace upon those who followed the right path."
The similarity in terms is important because the 2004 message appealing to Europeans to change their ways was the final message aimed specifically at Europeans before the July 2005 bombings in London which killed 52 people, said Venzke of the Virginia-based Intel Center.
In the video, bin Laden also discusses current events but issues no direct threats, and offers two ways of ending the Iraq war, according to a transcript released by the US-based SITE Intelligence Group which monitors Islamic militant websites.
"The first is from our side, and it is to continue to escalate the killing and fighting against you," he says.
The second is to do away with the US democratic system of government, which he says merely serves the interests of major corporations.
"Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn't play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security," he says, adding: Allah is our Guardian and helper, while you have no guardian or helper."
Bin Laden appears in the video with a trimmed beard that is apparently dyed black, hiding the streaks of gray seen in previous footage, and wears a beige cloak over a white robe.
According to Azzam Tamimi, head of the London-based Institute of Islamic Political Thought, the beard dye is a "sign of war."
The rigorous Salafi Islamic school to which bin Laden belongs "condones this dye only in preparation for war," he said.
A US intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity said agencies believe the video is authentic and was produced as recently as August because of a reference to the 62nd anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima on August 6.
"I think people are pretty confident it is his voice," the official said.
Prior to this release, the last video message from bin Laden, who has a 25-million-dollar US bounty on his head, came in October 2004, while a CIA-authenticated audio clip was posted on the Internet in May 2006.
CIA Director Michael Hayden on Friday also warned that Al-Qaeda was planning new, large-scale attacks on US targets.
"Our analysts assess with high confidence that Al-Qaeda's central leadership is planning high impact plots against the American homeland," Hayden said.
In the rambling message, bin Laden mocks the United States for its troubles in Iraq and the effect of the September 11, 2001 attacks.
"Despite America being the greatest economic power and possessing the most powerful and up-to-date military arsenal as well ... 19 young men were able -- by the grace of Allah, the most high -- to change the direction of its compass," he said in a reference to the September 11 hijackers.
"America is weak despite its apparent strength," he says.
Believed to be hiding in the remote tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, bin Laden verbally attacks US President George W. Bush as well as the US Democratic Party, which he says has done little to halt the Iraq war.
Bush, in turn, used the video to support the US military presence in Iraq.
"If Al-Qaeda bothers to mention Iraq, it's because they want to achieve their objectives in Iraq, which is to drive attacks and develop a safe haven," Bush said.
Addressing the American people directly, bin Laden refers to domestic opposition to the Iraq war.
"The world is following your news in regards to your invasion of Iraq, for people have recently come to know that, after several years of tragedies of this war, the vast majority of you want it stopped."
He says the Democrats who now control the US Congress have failed to stop the war, and even "continue to agree to the spending of tens of billions to continue the killing and war there."
Bin Laden also refers to recent US headline stories, referring to "the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgages; global warming and its woes."
"To conclude," he says, "I invite you to embrace Islam."
Bin Laden subscribes to the New York Times?
Which is the biggest clue of all.
LOL - chiding his Democrat friends for their failure at getting a surrender bill through. That's rich.
I'm not sure that the guy on the video is bin Laden.
Whaddya mean reads? He does more than that!
This is the chatter on the al-Queda in Iraq forums.
Is the New York Times printed in Arabic?
If he subscribes maybe intelligence should track him down via his delivery address. /sarc.
Old Bin Laden needs to lay off of that hubbly bubbly after dinner bong.
Check out some of the other threads on this - a Freeper tracked down a video made by Binnie in 2004 and put stills from the 2004 video and this supposedly new one side by side: they’re identical. It’s not just that Binnie is wearing the same outfit, his beard is black, etc., in the 2004 video - but that the stills are simply identical in every respect. I’ll try to find the post.
The terrorists could just about be members of the NYT’s editorial staff.
I’m not an “expert” but I’d be willing to bet a dollar to a donut that they wouldn’t dare attack before the November 2008 elections. They want their friends down at the DNC to take total control of the House and Senate and they also want Slick Willie’s wife in the Oval Office. That would really help simplify things for them.
It's offical. BL is a commie.
And of the DNC's platform committee! I like the way the Dems got b-slapped.
Translation: Ru Paul and the DemoncRats running for the U.S. presidency will weakens the U.S. and help our cause.
They invite you to convert to their death cult. If you don’t, your head will be in one room and your body in another. What “religion of peace”?
Here we go: two threads on the authenticity of Binnie.
This one shows the two clips I mentioned above:
This is a discussion of the 2004 and 2007 videos and the general issue of the authenticity of either or both of them:
That statement is probably more true as to localities which have torn down the Ten Commandments from their public buildings than those communities which still revere God.
15 months warning? We better get worried, it's about to hit...
you have to know that there is an Arabic equivalence of Rich Little
The military guys I work with and I were discussing this at the chow hall this evening as the news on TV in there showed clips from the video.
I'm going to show this to the guys tomorrow.
We all pretty much believe that OBL is dead.
I'm not arguing that point.
NEWSFLASH: The war's been on for years now, binny... Oh, wait... That's right, he hasn't been in it, has he? He's been hiding in a hole somewhere a thousand miles away. LOL, what a jerk***.
“America is weak despite its apparent strength,” he says.
Isn’t that just like a liberal to get it ass backwards.
“America is strong despite it’s apparent weakness,” says
Go ahead foolish man, kill thousands more Americans, give us a bloody nose, then brother get ready cause our blood will be up and your tribe will decrease.
This statement is so silly.
On the left is an image from the 2004 video. 2007 on the right.
It is possible but unlikely that the new video is a heavily processed version of the same video.
Sounds like the sign of vanity of a demented old man.
Anyone looking for signs of logic and rationality from a Muslim are going to be sorely disappointed.
These are the people who have placed a black rock in the middle of a huge square (at 5 feet high so it is ideal for kissing), and they circle this rock trying to get close to it to kiss it because they believe it "absorbs sins."
They also think Abraham actually built the first altar (kaba) for the rock! Yea right! Abraham, who followed God's prescription for blood sacrifice to the letter of the law and who abhorred idol worship was going to build this abomination.
Thanks. I think the poster on the other thread that I reffered to had probably gotten hold of two clips from the same video. Or possibly someone had edited the 2004 video to show how it would be possible to do so. I’m sure the gang at AQ Photolabs is getting a bit more sophisticated.
If you look at the noses and the brow linesin each still shot you can see that they are two different people.
Binnie was saying that we Westerners caused the Holocaust, not Muslims, and was bragging that Islam does not allow burning people alive. Ahem, Binnie, is this thing on?? Do we remember 9/11/01???? Oh yes, great humanitarian, you.
Hubbly Bubbly. I haven’t heard that phrase since I was in Egypt in the ‘70s!
His tribe has decreased. Al Qaeda is wounded. They're hurting. They have received a particular thrashing in Iraq, but in other places as well.
That may be the reason for the video.
However, it is true that people's faces change with age and weight gain/loss, almost to the point of unrecognisability.
i agree. old ben (bin) is dead.
Even the shape of the eyes is different.
You still hear that phrase in the Middle East. Regularly. ;-)
Anyone else have doubts that the person on the video tape is not Bin Laden? The guy had different eyes and a much broader nose than I remember Bin Laden having. His skin color appeared somewhat different too, a bit darker and more olive than tan. I haven’t heard the audio tape, so I can’t speak to that.
Nah, he's just actually very good at playing the liberals like a violin.
I invite islam to bite me
They dye their beards black, we dye our MOABs orange, with racing stripes.
See the sag? Looks like he’s had a stroke.
Anyone know his dailykos screen name? Maybe I'll look for a screen name that never uses four-letter words. That'll narrow it down to a couple, maybe. Wonder if OBL takes part in the conference calls with the Congressional Rat Party (formerly the traditional, patriotic Democratic Party)?
Ron Paul’s got his white flag ready......