Posted on 09/13/2007 7:44:54 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 15, 2007
It has been a challenge locating the low-level circulation of Ingrid early this morning. Belligerent southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Ingrid and the remaining deep convection is confined to the southeastern quadrant from the estimated center. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt and so will the initial intensity. Another NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft will be back investigating the cyclone around 12z...and a more accurate measurement will be taken. Ingrid is expected to remain in a strongly sheared environment at least for the next 48 hours. These upper-level winds should inhibit any strengthening and could possibly cause dissipation of the cyclone. However...after 3 days or so the shear is forecast to relax and if Ingrid survives that long some of the intensity guidance indicates that restrengthening could occur. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and maintains Ingrid as a minimal tropical cyclone through five days. The initial motion is estimated at 295/9. A general motion to the west-northwest to northwest should continue for the next 24-48 hours. Thereafter...a turn more toward the north-northwest with a slight decrease in forward motion is anticipated as Ingrid...or the remnant low of Ingrid...responds to a mid-level trough to its north. The model guidance is in close agreement...but has shifted a bit more to the east than the previous cycle. The official track forecast follows this reasoning and is just east of the previous forecast. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 15/0900z 16.5n 52.7w 35 kt 12hr VT 15/1800z 17.2n 54.0w 30 kt 24hr VT 16/0600z 18.3n 55.6w 30 kt 36hr VT 16/1800z 19.1n 56.9w 30 kt 48hr VT 17/0600z 19.9n 58.2w 30 kt 72hr VT 18/0600z 21.5n 59.5w 30 kt 96hr VT 19/0600z 23.5n 60.5w 30 kt 120hr VT 20/0600z 25.5n 61.5w 30 kt $$ forecaster Mainelli
Sounds like it’s fighting to keep it’s TS rating.
Good news for us.
Oh, by the way.
We had a right good line of thunderstorms move through the Central NC area last night. My rain gage said we got 3.7” last night.
We're 60 miles inland and got half an inch of rain and no wind.
Rita left a tree on our house and without electricity for a month. I have a bedridden mother and pay attention but this one slipped by me.
Well it appears Ingrid got her butt kicked by higher winds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/151431.shtml
Now just a tropical depression with some squalls
Yeah, the ones further out can get to 4-5 but it’s slow. The storms in the Gulf “usually” are weaker but can be here before you know it though.
bttt
I’ve decided that we have been getting a very slow moving hurricane, one rain cloud and gust at a time:’) As long as we don’t flood, I’m enjoying the summer thunderstorms we are having though. Maybe this is the way the south is supposed to really be. I was transfered here about 15 years ago. I was expecting a Miami scene. Instead I moved to a desert.
It’s official; Ingrid got her butt kicked. The last advisory was at 5 am this morning.
I can’t get the model to copy but do yall see the new “interest”? We might have one pop up fast.
The four reliable computer models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis all predict that once this area of disturbed weather crosses Florida and emerges into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, wind shear will drop enough to allow a tropical depression to form. The path such a storm might take is highly uncertain, and the models have diverged significantly since yesterday's runs. A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in place for at least ten days. This is the type of steering pattern we experienced during the Hurricane Season of 2005, and favors westward-moving storms. This ridge will act to steer any developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico towards the west, to the Texas coast, or even west-southwest, to the northeastern mainland Mexico. However, this steering pattern will be complicated by the presence of an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level low is currently forming over northern Florida, and is expected to drift southwestward or westward over the Gulf later this week, and gradually weaken.Depending on the strength and movement of this low, a storm that forms in the eastern Gulf could be steered anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico. One model, the NOGAPS, predicts that the storm will move west-southwest into the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico), and stall out for many days. The UKMET, GFS, and ECMFW models foresee that the storm will make landfall in Texas or Louisiana Sunday or Monday. The intensity such a storm may reach is also highly uncertain. The NOGAPS model predicts 93L will eventually dissipate over the southwestern Gulf, while the SHIPS intensity model brings 93L to Category 1 hurricane strength by Saturday.
All residents along the Gulf of Mexico coast need to consider what actions they might need to take if a hurricane develops in the Gulf this weekend. The highest danger region is from New Orleans westward to Brownsville, Texas. A hurricane hunter airplane is on call for Thursday afternoon.
We had thunder last night, not much water, then rain this afternoon (with not as much thunder). Didn't see it coming, did ya'll get anything?
Meanwhile, I'm debating whether to sound an early heads up for the system off the SE FL coast.
Still a toss up I'd say.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.