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The Contest For the Republican Presidential Nomination [Why Fred Thompson has a real chance to win]
Rasmussen Reports ^ | September 19, 2007 | Douglas Schoen

Posted on 09/21/2007 1:10:26 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Recent Rasmussen polling provides important insights into why Fred Thompson has a real chance to win the Republican nomination for President.

The most recent Rasmussen polling shows Thompson leading the field with 28% of likely primary voters followed by Rudy Guiliani (19%) and John McCain (13%). Mitt Romney is in 4th position with 11%.

Thompson is doing so well with likely Republican primary voters because he is perceived as the most conservative candidate in the race. The Republican primary electorate is made up predominantly of ideological conservatives, with better than half of likely voters characterizing themselves in this way.

So with 48% calling Thompson a conservative and only 25% viewing Giuliani this way, the Tennessee Senator would seem to have a decided advantage.

By contrast, 42% called Romney a conservative and 33% called McCain a conservative.

Also, Thompson's favorability at 64% is almost the equal of Giuliani (68%) and is virtually identical to McCain's and Romney’s (63% each).

Complicating Thompson's advance is Romney's early state strategy. Despite his relatively low national numbers, Romney leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada, according to the Real Clear Politics averages. The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in New Hampshire shows Romney’s lead declining, but he is still on top.

Given that Romney is already seen as the 2nd most conservative candidate in the race, any momentum that he generates by dint of success in early state primaries will only make Thompson's job more difficult. The former Tennessee Senator now only leads in one state, South Carolina, which is now slated to hold its nominating contest after the first three or four ballots are conducted.

Rasmussen Reports releases a daily Presidential Tracking Poll to provide the latest updates on Election 2008.

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Douglas Schoen is a founding and former partner of Penn Schoen & Berland, and a Fox News Contributor.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Philosophy; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Iowa; US: New Hampshire; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: conservatism; conservatives; election; electionpresident; elections; firstprinciples; fred; fredthompson; gop; mittromney; nh2008; polls; republicans; rudygiuliani; sc2008; thompson
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

A liberal friend says he’s voting for Thompson because he can’t stand hillary. This is anecdotal, so make of it what you wish.


21 posted on 09/21/2007 4:23:59 AM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: dajeeps
the media makes this a kind of popularity contest that has little to do with policy, leadership ability, management style or intellect. It’s about who can sling the most mud and make it stick. It’s entertainment, not seriousness. I doubt people are really thinking about what they’re going to get with their vote, otherwise we wouldn’t have had to suffer though the last Clinton administration.
The newspaper deadline is simply a version of "The show must go on." And the editor's rules, "If it bleeds, it leads," and "Man Bites Dog, not 'Dog Bites Man'" are also entertainment rules having no justification in respect to public policy issues. In fact the best way I've found to summarize what journalism is is by reference to what it is not. And what it is not, is an encyclopedia or a bible. Nor even a nonfiction book.

And that is the way to characterize the perspective of journalism - in comparison to the things that journalism systematically avoids, journalism is superficial. And to claim superior objectivity when you are actually systematically and for self-interested reasons purposefully superficial is also to be arrogant.

Half the truth is often a great lie. - Benjamin Franklin
Consequently, even proof that journalism was always accurate (snort!) would not constitute proof of objectivity.
The wisest and most cautious of us all frequently gives credit to stories which he himself is afterwards both ashamed and astonished that he could possibly think of believing . . .

It is acquired wisdom and experience only that teach incredulity,
and they very seldom teach it enough.
- Adam Smith

Why Broadcast Journalism is
Unnecessary and Illegitimate

22 posted on 09/21/2007 4:28:44 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which liberalism coheres is that NOTHING actually matters except PR.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I think that you underestimate people's inability to remember things.

For example: no one seems to recall our reasons for toppling the Iraq regime any longer. Most people, depending on their political ideology, believe that the reason for invading Iraq was because we wanted to promote democracy or they'll believe that we wanted to exercize imperialism and protect oil interests. Neither is true. The progression to the recent Iraq war was: Iraq invasion of Kuwait in Aug. 1990 => cease fire agreements/UN resolutions => violations of agreements => 1998 weapons inspectors punted => threat of war then faux cooperation => 2002-2003 further games played with weapon inspector leading to resolution 1441.

Another long forgotten factoid regarding a devastating 2001 event that people don't seem to recall that caused America to look really bad...perhaps even emboldened terrorists to try what they did in September of the same year because of our percieved weakness. Do you, yourself, recall the 2001 event that I'm refering to [hint: happened within first third of that year]?

23 posted on 09/21/2007 5:02:15 AM PDT by LowCountryJoe (I'm a Paleo-liberal: I believe in freedom; am socially independent and a borderline fiscal anarchist)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"The most recent Rasmussen polling shows Thompson leading the field with 28% of likely primary voters followed by Rudy Guiliani (19%) and John McCain (13%). Mitt Romney is in 4th position with 11%."

"Now that's what I'm talking about!!"

FRED VETS, SIGN UP TODAY AT:

24 posted on 09/21/2007 5:04:44 AM PDT by W04Man (I'm Now With Fred http://Vets4Fred.net)
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To: counterpunch

You’re showing your true colors here.

Lukewarm “conservative” and MSM plant Thompson along with liberal Giuliani. The dream RINO ticket!


25 posted on 09/21/2007 5:51:41 AM PDT by jmyrlefuller ("a steady drumbeat of clever, witty, observant posts throughout the morning" - Bahbah)
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To: jmyrlefuller

Wow! you’re a nut.
Here I try to give some sober and realistic political analysis and you can’t deal with it because you would rather live in a fantasy world.

Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo aren’t even in this race. Face the facts.
I didn’t say that Giuliani is my preference for the VP pick.
I merely said he is the only candidate in the GOP field who would make any sense from an electoral point of view, and even then, the odds are very much against it, historically speaking.
But you just see “Giuliani” and start foaming at the mouth.
You didn’t even read my entire post, did you?

How about this:
ONLY HUNTER/TANCREDO CAN STOP HITLERY FROM DESTROYING AMERICA!!!! ALL OTHERS WILL LOSE BECAUSE THEY ARE RINOS!!!!
Is that more to your liking?
Do you feel all warm and fuzzy now?


26 posted on 09/21/2007 6:23:58 AM PDT by counterpunch (“I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush.” —Mitt Romney)
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To: counterpunch; Dustbunny
Expect Fred’s choice of running mate to be based on political analysis of which battleground state could be flipped to the GOP by choosing the right popular politician from the state. Here’s a hint: it will not be California and Duncan Hunter.

I will throw out one caveat, however. Since we're assuming Thompson wins the nomination here... if his long-term health becomes too much of an issue, the choice of VP will quite likely be focused more on who will be a "capable backup" as opposed to geographical or demographical issues.

Quite likely is that whomever is selected will hit on multiple areas -- at least two of geographic, demographic, and/or "capable backup".

27 posted on 09/21/2007 6:31:02 AM PDT by kevkrom (The religion of global warming: "There is no goddess but Gaia and Al Gore is her profit.")
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To: kevkrom

There is no reason why Thompson’s health would be an issue, though I’m sure the left will try to make it one.


28 posted on 09/21/2007 6:54:20 AM PDT by counterpunch (“I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush.” —Mitt Romney)
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To: Darkwolf377; 2ndDivisionVet
I fear nothing will stop HRC from becoming our next president...

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

29 posted on 09/21/2007 6:57:10 AM PDT by Doofer (Fred Dalton Thompson For President)
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To: counterpunch

“But suddenly, a new contender has emerged.”

LOL- 3 Time looser trying for #4


30 posted on 09/21/2007 7:07:32 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: sergeantdave
“A liberal friend says he’s voting for Thompson because he can’t stand hillary.”

As one of the original Reagan Democrats (read my FR profile) I can see that happening.

31 posted on 09/21/2007 7:10:29 AM PDT by NavyCanDo
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To: NavyCanDo

Fred Thompson has issued this stern statement regarding Iranian Leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his upcoming visit to the United Nations, and what we must do regarding the threat Iran poses:

Dallas, TX - Senator Fred Thompson issued the following statement today from Dallas, Texas regarding Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s upcoming visit to the United States and further called upon the UN Security Council to impose economic sanctions on the terrorist state:

“Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of the world’s premier terrorist state, is speaking before the United Nations next week. He has also asked to visit Ground Zero. If I were President of the United States none of this would have been an issue—I wouldn’t have let him into the country in the first place.

“It’s time for the world to finally send a stern message to Iran. Ahmadinejad has called for the destruction of Israel, is supporting terrorist groups throughout the Middle East, and is responsible for supplying weapons to extremists who are killing US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. And with Iran’s ongoing pursuit of nuclear weapons and development of long-range missiles, that country is a threat not only to the region and our allies, but to the entire free world. It’s time for the United Nations to take more serious action against this terror regime.

“The Security Council needs to begin placing comprehensive, multilateral sanctions on Iran’s economy, to include banning foreign investment, stopping export credits to companies doing business there, and prohibiting any business dealings with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Iranian banks should be denied access to international banking and financial institutions, and World Bank loans should be suspended. All arms sales to Iran need to be halted. And travel by Iranian officials should be stopped and their assets frozen. Cutting off Iranian access to refined gas imports will certainly get Tehran’s attention and cause them to reconsider their priorities. If the UN can’t reach agreement on these measures due to continued Russian, Chinese or others’ intransigence, then we need to work directly with our allies and go around the UN roadblock.

“The international community has been negotiating with Iran for more than four years to no avail in seeking to halt the mullahs’ nuclear program. I believe strongly in diplomacy, but it has its limits, especially when the other side is made up of extremists. If we don’t get serious and act now—before they build atomic weapons—the stakes will be even higher, and our hand much weaker. The United States and its allies cannot afford to let that happen. As president, I certainly will not.”


32 posted on 09/21/2007 7:12:37 AM PDT by seekthetruth
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To: Dustbunny

What about John Cornyn as VP.

Smart guy, very conservative.

Of course, he doesn’t get us anywhere being from Texas.


33 posted on 09/21/2007 7:14:33 AM PDT by MeanWestTexan (Kol Hakavod Fred Thompson)
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Comment #34 Removed by Moderator

To: MeanWestTexan

Duncan Hunter is our first choice for President and he is whom we will vote for in the primary.

We do like Thompson who would be our second choice.

We would not vote for Romney period and yes part of it is his religion, plus we think he is a RINO.


35 posted on 09/21/2007 8:57:13 AM PDT by Dustbunny (The BIBLE - Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth)
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To: counterpunch

That was a good post on reasons for choosing a VP.

To add to that, if I may. A couple of people were pulled because of corruption investigations.

Truman was a senator investigating spending during wartime on armaments. Businesses overbilling the government. Truman didn’t want to be president, Roosevelt was very sick, but Truman was perceived as honest. Minimal in management experience.

Nixon was a congressman with a corruption/communism? investigation. I don’t know how legit this was, it was before my time. Did Eisenhower want him?

Truman was drafted by the guys in the smoky back room, Nixon I don’t know about.

Just mention this as historically a reason why some were chosen.

It is very interesting that so many people who support a number of different candidates are talking so soon about a VP. Fred was also asked about it in an interview in Texas this week. His answer was it should be someone who could step in and take over if there was a need IIRC.


36 posted on 09/21/2007 10:23:37 AM PDT by daylilly
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To: daylilly

Yeah, good history there.
Sort of reminiscent of why Joe Lieberman was chosen, don’t you think?


37 posted on 09/21/2007 10:26:59 AM PDT by counterpunch (“I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush.” —Mitt Romney)
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To: jellybean; girlangler; KoRn; Shortstop7; Lunatic Fringe; Darnright; babygene; pitbully; granite; ...
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference

WARNING: If you wish to join, be aware that this ping list is EXTREMELY active.

38 posted on 09/21/2007 10:54:46 AM PDT by Politicalmom (Of the potential GOP front runners, FT has one of the better records on immigration.- NumbersUSA)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
KEYES/PAUL '08!!!!

When you want to go OVER the edge!!!!!

39 posted on 09/21/2007 11:01:02 AM PDT by Pistolshot (Keyes/Paul '08 - When you can't get crazy enough.)
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To: counterpunch
HAHAHAHA!

Right....

Glad you had the /sarc, I was worried for a second. Too much exposure to the Paulinati, second hand smoke and all...

40 posted on 09/21/2007 11:01:30 AM PDT by ejonesie22 (I don't use a sarcasm tag, it kills the effect...)
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