Durable goods orders below forecasts

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/26/news/economy/bc.economy.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007092608 ^ | 9-26-07

[Hydroshock]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Demand for big-ticket manufactured goods plunged in August by the largest amount in seven months, with widespread weakness signaling a slowdown in the nation's industrial sector.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durable goods, everything from commercial jetliners to home appliances, fell by 4.9 percent in August, the biggest decline since a 6.1 percent fall in January.

It was far larger than the 3.5 percent drop that economists had been expecting and resulted from across-the-board decreases in a number of categories. The concern is that the steep downturn in housing and turbulence in financial markets could start to affect the economy more broadly, raising the risks of a full-blown recession.

[Hydroshock]

The hits just keep on coming.

[vietvet67]

And Greenspan is very happy about this retirement timing..

[Old Retired Army Guy]

The Fed. will most likely lower rates again.

[Toddsterpatriot]

The Fed. will most likely lower rates again.

That would be like treating cancer with a bandaid, right hydro?

[Hydroshock]

Yes. And debt is a cancer on the American people.

[Toddsterpatriot]

And debt is a cancer on the American people.

And your cure is to raise rates. Got it.

[live+let_live]

September's numbers will be bad too if the (below identified) trend continues. The flow of junk faxes to my office are still almost non-existent.

This from August:

To: Hydroshock

I’ll be very interested to see the August numbers.

I’ve been watching the flow of junk faxes to my office. They seem to be correlated to the general flow of the economy.

In August the junk faxes all but stopped.

It will be interesting to see if there is any validity to my theory.

11 posted on 08/25/2007 8:41:44 AM PDT by live+let_live

[Hydroshock]

No, the cure is to live below ones means, save, and invest wisely. Not cheaper money. This is what makes the majority of 1st gen millionairs in this country.

[Toddsterpatriot]

No, the cure is to live below ones means, save, and invest wisely. Not cheaper money.

And raising rates and slowing the economy is the best way to encourage that. Got it.

[Hydroshock]

No it is the best wayt to fight inflation and keep the value of the dollar at a reasonable level.

[Toddsterpatriot]

No it is the best wayt to fight inflation and keep the value of the dollar at a reasonable level.

Because cutting rates always raises inflation and weakens the dollar?

[Eagles Talon IV]

After the huge drop in the markets in August, caused by the liquidity crises brought on by the sub prime debacle, this should be no surprise to anyone. One month does not a trend make.

[Eagles Talon IV]

LOL, geez, show some mercy, will ya?

[Eagles Talon IV]

Better check your armament. I think you may have mistakenly brought a knife to this gun fight.

[HamiltonJay]

Lowering Rates will do ZERO in the short term.... other than stop some ARM readjustments.. it takes about 18 months for a rate cut to flow through the economy.

Japan had their rates at 0% and was in a recession for over a decade....

Rate cuts are no panacea, not even close.

[Toddsterpatriot]

He brought a rubber knife.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Lowering Rates will do ZERO in the short term.... other than stop some ARM readjustments

They didn't lower rates to stop ARM readjustments.

Rate cuts are no panacea, not even close.

Who said they were a panacea?

[Eagles Talon IV]

Yeah, really.

[Hydroshock]

I honest do not care what the re shrills and the money changers say. I am prepared for the coming recession, my debt is low my savings are high. And my work situation is very tight. I work for as a contractor for a state agency and the a contract through 2011, my wife is a teacher.

[Toddsterpatriot]

I am prepared for the coming recession, my debt is low my savings are high.

Same here.

I work for as a contractor for a state agency and the a contract through 2011, my wife is a teacher.

So the guy with the recession proof job thinks a recession is best for the rest of us? That's funny!

[Hydroshock]

Nothing will stop the recession now, the train is to far down the track. Just don’t take down the rest of the economy to keep wall Street afloat for a few more months.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Nothing will stop the recession now, the train is to far down the track.

What if you're wrong?

Just don’t take down the rest of the economy to keep wall Street afloat for a few more months.

Cutting 50 basis points equals "taking down the rest of the economy"?

[Hydroshock]

They could cut it down to 0% and it will not stop the coming recession. It will increase inflationa nd wreck the value of teh dollar though.

[Toddsterpatriot]

They could cut it down to 0% and it will not stop the coming recession.

If you say so.

It will increase inflation and wreck the value of teh dollar though.

Then I'm glad they won't cut to 0%.

[Mase]

Nothing will stop the recession now, the train is to far down the track. Just don’t take down the rest of the economy to keep wall Street afloat for a few more months.

Our economy has expanded 93 out of the past 98 quarters and you're hunkered down in your bunker? You've been predicting recession along with financial doom ever since you joined the forum. Good thing you're compensated by the taxpayers otherwise your incredible fear might get the better of you.

Whether or not we experience a recession in the near future won't stop you from purveying your doomed world view. Someday, you may even be proven right. Hang in there.

[Hydroshock]

In times of uncertainty being prepared for adversity is prudent.

[Mase]

Given the manner (and extent) with which you worry there is no doubt in my mind that you labor every day with fear of uncertainty and the expectation of adversity. That's why you only see black clouds.

I'm sure you found nothing but uncertainty throughout the 80's, 90's, and right up till today. Ninety-three of the past ninety-eight quarters have seen an expanding economy. My guess is you see us mired in economic Armageddon for ninety-three out of the next ninety-eight quarters.

[PayNoAttentionManBehindCurtain]

In times of uncertainty being prepared for adversity is prudent.

BigMack

[Hydroshock]

Actually I am pretty much at peace, I have low debt, a good amount in savings (with more being added every month), my and my wifes jobs are reasonabley secure. As is the majority of my family. The majority of my family has for generatins tried to lieve below our means and save. My father was a carpenter and my mother was a teacher. They ahve a net worth of $900K+.

[Moonman62]

Lowering Rates will do ZERO in the short term.... other than stop some ARM readjustments.. it takes about 18 months for a rate cut to flow through the economy.

So you're saying the Fed should have lowered rates 18 months ago. Better late than never, though.

Japan had their rates at 0% and was in a recession for over a decade....

Banks had no money to lend because they never wrote off bad loans. That's not the case here.

[Eagles Talon IV]

We are either coming out of a recession or heading towards one. That is simply an economic fact of life. That said, keeping your debt low is something no one will or should ever fault you for. High savings is also a commendable thing. It depends where you are keeping your savings that will determine whether or not your retirement years, when they arrive will be worry free or merely a day to day existence as you wait for your next SS check.

Remember, the stock market advances on average 2 of every 3 days and the historical gains from 1926-1999 averaged 11% (less inflation, puts this number at about 8%). From 1999-present those gains have been even higher.

You may find this interesting

http://www.finfacts.com/stockperf.htm

[BurbankKarl]

I just take a look at the railyards in Los Angeles...empty on the weekends, whereas last year they were booming with overtime. It is a ghost town.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Money changer! LOL!

[Hydroshock]

There is no denigning that the economy is cooling.

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

As if it was a coincidence. He retired KNOWING this mess was about to blow up. The day Greenspan retired, I said to myself, “uh, oh...”

Yes, he was elderly, but after 18 years wielding the Fed scepter, the day he bowed out I knew he was getting out while the going was good. I just had no clue as to why he was getting out. I had not yet heard the words “subprime” or “Alt A” and had no clue what they were.

He built a nice mess and then dumped it on Bernanke’s back. What a sweetheart.

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

Hello, inflation. Sure, house assets are deflating, but the economy seems to be pointing toward inflation in just about every other sector, even on the brink of recession. Incredible! You would think inflation couldn’t occur, but then why all the signals?

The Feds will cut rates. Scary stuff.

Are they planning to inflate us out of he housing mess? Massive inflation would lower the real cost of housing debt.

[jeffy]

Those keywords are funny!

[Toddsterpatriot]

Yes, he was elderly, but after 18 years wielding the Fed scepter, the day he bowed out I knew he was getting out while the going was good. I just had no clue as to why he was getting out.

It might have something to do with the end of his term on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

I thought FreeRepublic now offers an “ignore” feature to put people on an ignore list, but I can’t seem to find it. Does FR have an ignore feature, or am I mistaken?

[mysterio]

Don’t worry, we’ll just borrow our way to prosperity!

[Toddsterpatriot]

There is an ignorant list, you’re on it! LOL!