Posted on 09/30/2007 6:17:48 PM PDT by Spiff
| South Carolina | ||||||||
| Likely Republican Primary Voters |
Dec 06 |
Feb 07 | Apr 07 | May 07 | Jun 07 | Jul 07 | Aug 07 | Sep 07 |
| Brownback | - | - | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | 2% | 1% |
| Gilmore | - | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ni | ni | ni |
| Gingrich | 15% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% |
| Giuliani | 28% | 29% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 28% | 26% | 23% |
| Hagel | - | - | 1% | - | - | ni | ni | ni |
| Huckabee | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 1% |
| Hunter | - | 1% | - | 1% | 2% | 1% | - | 1% |
| Keyes | ni | ni | ni | ni | ni | ni | ni | - |
| McCain | 35% | 35% | 36% | 32% | 23% | 10% | 12% | 15% |
| Pataki | - | - | - | - | - | ni | ni | ni |
| Paul | ni | - | - | - | - | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Romney | 5% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 26% |
| Tancredo | ni | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| F Thompson | ni | ni | 10% | 13% | 19% | 27% | 21% | 10% |
| T Thompson | - | - | 1% | 1% | - | - | ni | ni |
| Undecided | 16% | 18% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 13% |
=====================================================
About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.
The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (524 Republicans and 76 independent voters).
Sample Dates: September 26-29, 2007
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Question Wording:
If the 2008 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Sam Brownback, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote?
* Mitt Romney 26% (+19)
* Rudy Giuliani 23% (-5)
* John McCain 15% (+5)
* Fred Thompson 10% (-17)
Two month trend in parens.
• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •
• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •
Uh huh.
Like I said from the beginning... Thompson made a big mistake in waiting so long to get in. Unfortunately, we are confronted with a lackluster slate of candidates. We’ve just got to choose the one who has the best chance of beating Hillary—for the good of the country. Otherwise we might as well kiss the American dream goodbye.
I wonder if the question was “regardless of which one you plan to vote for..which candidate is the best looking?”
Yeah, Slick Willard’s got the big MO, dontchaknow? He’s WAY more popular in SC than Fred. This poll could never be an outlier. How could you think such a thing? LOL
Sorry, but Mitt almost TRIPLES his support in SC?
I doubt it.
Good. Romney would be an excellent candidate. Well spoken, highly successful, religious, and espousing conservative social and economic positions. Sounds like a winner to me.
If you look at the 2 month trend, Fred Thompson has dropped 17 points.
Good stuff! Notice the usual sore losers are out and about on the thread!
Agreed. The Fred heads will scream conspiracy, MSM RNC bias etc.
I'm looking forward to a few debates with the big three and then the voters will decide.
Governors win the Presidency. Senators don’t.
At least not in the past 47 years, they haven’t.
Not surprised Romney is doing well, he’s a real candidate unlike the other new southern candidate.
If one poll was to be believed, it looks like he didn’t wait long enough, because his highest numbers were right after announcing.
I don’t put much credence in one poll though.
Still, I’m happy to see Romney polling well in this and several other states. I wish Thompson’s and Giuliani’s numbers were reversed though.
Guiliani is the only consistent one, and will likely win South Carolina without much trouble.
Mitt and Julie Anne at the top. Yuck.
I’m not familiar with this polling outfit, but frankly those figures just are not credible.
Even when Giuliani stood up and announced that he never saw an abortion he didn’t like and that women had a constitutional right to have the taxpayers pay for it, he didn’t drop that much.
It looks bogus to me.
Polling mental patients and pet canaries doesn’t count, dude. Come back with an authentic poll that joshes with reality. You Mittwitts are pathetic putting out this baloney with a straight face.
It helps when you can write a big fat check to get votes as Romney can.
But, not to fear. One state does not determine the election.
This is amazing. I had to check the source because I didn’t believe it. I honestly thought SC was a write off for Mitt.
That said, it makes sense. The NH race has tightened up for this reason - Mitt has maintained his conservative support but the liberals and some of the moderates supporting him are afraid he is too conservative to win (imagine that) and it might be safer to go with Guiliani or McCain. SC is reliably conservative.
Amazing.
I guess we'll know that next month, won't we?
If Thompson’s going to make a move let him make a move. How long do conservatives continue to prop this guy up without some help from the candidate himself. HEY Thompson,GET in some debates and show the base what you’ve got,otherwise get the hell out !!!
So maybe Thompson should have waited until just before the election? The sad fact is that we are forced to choose between pathetic and unbelievably pathetic.
Personally, I choose pathetic... Which is Giuliani. I think Giuliani has the best chance of beating the Beast. Though even his chance is at best 50-50.
Um, Fred has, and Precious Willard is still in 4th place.
Ah, but will Dobson endorse him or form a third party if he's nominated. (end/sarc)
Dobson's come out against Thompson, Guiliani, but I haven't heard what he has to say about Romney...has Dobson made a statement concerning him? If he's also against Romney, then the plan for a third party was the idea from the start for Dobson. Doesn't he remember what happened when Ross Perot ran?
Actually, if there had been a debate or something else significant, I WOULD believe it. I just don’t think anything has been going on that would indicate Mitt has really tripled his support.
Perhaps our SC folks can explain - but without an explanation, I’m very suspicious of this poll.
See here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_primary-233.html
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
Pretty fishy. They provide no details on their company, history, or purpose. A real communications firm would have a much better web page.
bookmark
He has the least chance. Two liberal nominees from each party with a Conservative 3rd party choice popping up means Hillary wins with a plurality. Fred is the only choice.
“Well spoken, ..., religious, and espousing conservative social and economic positions.”
Yes, ever since 2006 he has been.
Come on,Fred hasn’t done crap and you know it. Precious Willard might just beat this guy if he doesn’t get going !!!
I don’t believe this.
I don’t put much stock in polls, even the ones which show my favorite candidate ahead, especially one which purports to have polled “likely” voters. Even at this stage in the race, I’m betting lots of folk aren’t really paying too much attention yet. No sore loser here, I’m willing to wait and see how it all plays out.
Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are tied for the lead among Republicans.
National Primary
Republicans Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Brownback 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Gingrich 12% 10% 13% 12% 10% 7% 6%
Giuliani 34% 27% 28% 24% 30% 27% 24%
Huckabee 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 4%
Hunter - - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
McCain 30% 23% 24% 20% 14% 13% 14%
Paul 1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Romney 7% 12% 8% 10% 10% 16% 9%
Tancredo 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
F Thompson ni 9% 6% 15% 17% 16% 23%
Undecided 9% 14% 13% 11% 11% 14% 15%
Question wording:
Don’t count on Fred being in any of those debates. He ducked the two that came after he announced. He ducked those that came before. The GOP has made grievous errors in this process. I’m afraid that the end result will be four years of Hillary.
But the likelihood is that Hillary will screw up so badly that the conservatives will take a majority in 2010, though maybe not under the banner of the GOP. So maybe not all is lost.
I agree with you about the polls....there are just too many of them. If you follow Romney threads you might know some who I was directing my comments to.
Swapped Thompson and Romney data.
***Christian sect of Mormonism***
Mormonism is not a “sect” of Christianity.
Christians do not believe that the Lord Jesus Christ is nothing but a big brother.
On the other hand, H. Clinton is not a member of any sect of Christianity that I recognize.
I will vote for Romney if he is the nominee, but only because the alternative is unthinkable.
The national polls don’t mean much now, it’s too early. It’s the individual State polls that count, and that’s why the real story is that Mitt is leading the pack.
Romney is for big government, Romney Care, anti Second Amendment,signed for the Mass AWB just for starters. He is a full blown RINO
Mormons are not Christians. They do not believe in Christ Jesus as the Son of God. They do not believe in Salvation or any of the other Christian beliefs. You are right, many of us have a big problem with Mormons.
Our Sinator is a Mormon and he changed his mind on our Troops to get re-elected. I voted for him but will not vote for him again.
Pray for W and Our Troops
Here’s what I found on ARG:
[quote]It is important to note that what ARG does, as explained above, is very different from the way other pollsters ask about party ID. ARG asks about party registration on some states, party identification in others and then combines the two results into a single variable. Whatever the merits of this approach, the will results not be comparable to those of other polling organizations.
Party registration is not the same as party identification - respondents will sometimes provide a different answer when asked how they are registered as compared to which party the feel closer to. In states that require it, some voters may choose a party affiliation in order to cast a ballot in a contested primary when they “consider themselves” independent or even closer to the other party. In southern states, this phenomenon has a name - the Dixiecrat - which describes those who register as Democrats in order to vote in local primaries in areas where Democrats almost always win local general elections.
My own firm often asks about both party registration and party ID, often in the same survey (e.g. Are you registered? [If yes] are you registered as a Republican, Democrat or independent? Now regardless of how you are registered, do you consider yourself...?]. The results are often quite different. Those tempted to weight by party identification to match statistics for party registration provided by election officials risk introducing serious bias [/quote]
http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/03/disclosing_part_4.html
That would make it more consistant with national polls and I see that as a possibility. Would be a major error by a polling company to report results like that.
If this is true it worries me because I’m a Fred supporter. However, I’d vote for Mitt w/o holding my nose. In fact, I’d vote for anyone running against whatshername.
Just keep telling yourself that and repeating media talking points. A good useful idiot for the cause of Hillary and the RINO midgets.
Thompson is rapidly squandering the bump he got from announcing.
I’m beginning to wonder if he has the energy for the race and for the job.
I don’t have that same fear with Romney.
You are EXACTLY right. The polls as well as the voting is based on INDIVIDUAL states,NOT national voting.And the Presidency is determined the same way,because if it wasn’t George Bush would have gone home in 2000 !!!
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