Election 2008: South Carolina Republican Primary Thompson 24% Giuliani 20% Mitt 15% McCain 11%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | September 30, 2007 | Scott Rasmussen

[2ndDivisionVet]

In South Carolina’s Republican Presidential Primary, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Fred Thompson leading Rudy Giuliani 24% to 20%. That’s little changed from a month ago when Thompson held a 23% to 21% advantage. Mitt Romney has moved into third place and is now supported by 15% of South Carolina’s Likely Primary Voters while John McCain is barely in double digits at 11% support.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee earns 3% of the South Carolina vote while four other candidates split 5% and 22% are undecided.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of the state’s Republican Primary voters say that Giuliani is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if he becomes the Republican nominee. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the same about Thompson. Just 48% think Romney is at least somewhat likely to win it all and only 39% have such confidence in McCain. Nationally, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican and Thompson as the most conservative.

Just 19% of South Carolina’s Republican Primary voters believe Thompson waited too long to enter the race. Three times as many, 57%, believe that the other candidates started campaigning too soon. A recent Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 56% of voters say the campaign so far has been annoying and a waste of time.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 71% of the state’s likely primary voters, Thompson by 70%. A month ago, Giuliani was viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 68%. Twenty-six percent (26%) have an unfavorable opinion of the former New York City Mayor while 20% offer a negative assessment of Thompson.

Romney is viewed favorably by 62%, unfavorably by 29%. The perceptions of McCain are more harsh—56% favorable and 40% unfavorable.

While Thompson holds a slight lead in South Carolina, Romney leads in New Hampshire, and Giuliani in Florida. The “leads” in all three states are in mid-single digits meaning that the race remains amazingly fluid and competitive. Thompson and Giuliani lead in national polling but there is no clear frontrunner.

In South Carolina, Thompson leads by ten among men but Giuliani has a two-point advantage among women. Thompson leads by ten among conservatives while Giuliani leads among the smaller number of moderates and liberal Republicans. These patterns are similar to what is found in national polling on the race.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

This telephone survey of 863 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on September 26-27, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Seems much more accurate than the ARG poll out of South Carolina that showed Willard "Mitt" Romney in the lead in South Carolina, IMO. Is there anyone here that's EVER been South of the Mason-Dixon line that thinks Rudy or Romney beats Fred in a Southern or border state?

[PAR35]

I could come up with some scenarios for Mitt, but not for Rudy.

I agree about that other poll that was put up tonight. There were too many month to month jumps on it. Absent a scandal, the gradual movements shown on this one look more realistic.

[AmericanInTokyo]

At least we can agree that we want any one of the trio of Romney and Rudy and McCain knocked out of the first position.

[Uriah_lost]

Rasmussen tends to screen respondents more rigorously for the elusive “likely voter”. That is why they tend to differ(and are usually more accurate)

[JMack]

Thanks for taking the time to hunt down and post all the Fred news. And props on your service.

[Caipirabob]

"20%? What's a girl to do?"

[2ndDivisionVet]

You’re welcome, I’m glad it’s helping.

[stevem]

Such early polls don’t mean a great deal. Still, it’s at least as usefull as a poll showingt Romney’s stock valued tripling in the blink of an eye.

[David In Staten Island]

It’s nice to see Romney starting to gain the traction that he deserves.

[johnny7]

Is there anyone here that's EVER been South of the Mason-Dixon line that thinks Rudy or Romney beats Fred in a Southern or border state?

I don't see it... especially Giuliani. On guns, gays and illegals... this nut-case is a disaster. Voting for Romney, on the other hand, would be a gamble at best. So much of his campaign is based on how he feels now... and little about what he's actually accomplished as Governor(next-to-nothing).

Why McCain is even a blip on the radar is an anathema to me.

Thompson should win comfortably in SC... and pick up the Romney/McCain voters as the primary moves on.

[Always Right]

Seems much more accurate than the ARG poll out of South Carolina that showed Willard "Mitt" Romney in the lead in South Carolina, IMO.

They knew it was BS, but pretended to believe it. I was really surprised not one Romney supporter wanted to bet me Thompson would kick Romney's butt in SC. Romney supporters are as disingenuous as their candidate.

[Nextrush]

Rudy will have to be stopped in SC by a vote for Thompson if I were tactically voting against more liberal candidates.

I wish all the big names would go away and we could find a better candidate.

[Condor51]

*** "20%? What's a girl to do?" ****

Well, like any typical 'female' when bad news hits ....

You Go Shopping!!

"Thank You Sir, I'll Take Three of These."

[Brices Crossroads]

Sending Rudy/Romney into the south to defeat Fred is roughly equivalent to sending George B. McClellan and Ambrose Burnside to take care of Nathan Bedford Forrest. The result “won’t be pretty.”

[GregH]

The way Fred has been conducting his campaign recently, if he somehow manages to win the nomination then Hillary would win in a landslide.

Fred needs to sharpen and quit being so lazy, this is a Presidential election and not a election for a small town mayor.

[GregH]

The way Fred has been conducting his campaign recently, if he somehow manages to win the nomination then Hillary would likely win in a landslide.

Fred needs to sharpen and quit being so lazy, this is a Presidential election and not a election for a small town mayor.

[Doofer]

The way Fred has been conducting his campaign recently, if he somehow manages to win the nomination then Hillary would win in a landslide.

Fred needs to sharpen and quit being so lazy, this is a Presidential election and not a election for a small town mayor.

My goodness you're kidding right!!!

[kevkrom]

Seems much more accurate than the ARG poll out of South Carolina that showed Willard "Mitt" Romney in the lead in South Carolina, IMO

ARG is consistently bullish on Romney... I'm not sure what in their methodology does that, but ARG results are generall out of line with everyone else for that reason.

Is there anyone here that's EVER been South of the Mason-Dixon line that thinks Rudy or Romney beats Fred in a Southern or border state?

I've been saying that the only states east of, and including, Texas and south of the Mason-Dixon line that aren't "slam dunks" for Thompson unless something goes badly wrong for him, are Virgina and Florida (I should probably add Maryland, too).

[Preachin']

It’s nice to see Romney starting to gain the traction that he deserves.

Why does he “deserve” it?

[Owen]

The advance of Romney in this poll suggests the ARG poll was not completely absurd. There clearly has been an improvement in Romney’s numbers in SC, probably due to a media buy of whatever size. He may have visited there recently.

I will say that folks need to keep their minds wrapped around Iraq. Iraq is rapidly unfolding as a victory. The climate next year is going to be a great deal different than now with victory parades on TV. All the presumptions about loss of seats and Hillary’s inevitability will be undone.

It ALL DEPENDS on getting funding out of Congress. Unfortunately the Democrats are rapidly seeing the box they are in . . . that they have to vote to fund their own defeat.

If Iraq victory is funded, any of these GOP candidates will do well — assuming Thompson can stay healthy. I will remind everyone that winning states does not take all the delegates. Close contests . . . consistently close . . . does not generate delegate momentum. Romney winning Iowa and NH will generate a few delegates but not outright victory. Thompson winning SC by a few % will do the same thing, a handful of delegates with Guilliani and Romney picking up a few too.

The key state is unfolding to be Michigan. Michigan is huge. It is the replacement Electoral Votes for Ohio if the enormous Dem effort to take Ohio’s EVs is successful (and likely will be). Romney was born in Michigan.

[Prokopton]

I will say that folks need to keep their minds wrapped around Iraq. Iraq is rapidly unfolding as a victory. The climate next year is going to be a great deal different than now with victory parades on TV

Do you have some information that no one else has?

[greyfoxx39]

It’s nice to see Romney starting to gain the traction that he deserves.

Not with Gallup! Gallup seems to see Guiliani ahead on most everything...BUT if you look further on page two of the article, you find this: Giuliani's current frontrunner status is no doubt aided by the fact that he is among the best known Republican candidates. Thompson and Romney remain unfamiliar figures to more than one-third of Republicans, and it is certainly possible that as they become better known their support could increase nationally. Indeed, among Republicans who have an opinion of the four leading candidates -- less than half the party base -- the ballot looks very different, with Thompson at 33% support, Giuliani at 26%, Romney at 15%, and McCain at 10%.

Additionally, from the article:Thompson appears to be the greatest threat to Giuliani's winning the nomination at this stage of the campaign, particularly since he is already competitive with Giuliani among some of the most important Republican subgroups. Though, he remains unknown to a large segment of the population. However, the actor and former Tennessee senator has yet to make any significant gains in the national polls since he officially entered the race earlier this month. If he can become better known over the next few months, he may well pass Giuliani.

Polling methods:"These results are based on of 1,690 combined telephone interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, from randomly selected national samples conducted in August and September 2007. (Note the poll dates.) For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Margins of error for subgroups of Republicans will be larger, in most cases between ±4 percentage points and ±6 percentage points.

Republican Nomination Preference by Ideological Self-Identification
	Moderate/Liberal Republicans N=544
	%
Giuliani	38
Thompson	17
McCain	16
Romney	9
	Conservative Republicans N=1,131
	%
Giuliani	30
Thompson	23
McCain	15
Romney	10

Religion

For more than two decades, the Republican Party has been closely aligned with conservative religious individuals and groups. There has been considerable media speculation that religious Republicans are not overly enthusiastic about any of the leading Republican candidates for the 2008 nomination, given some of their past positions on moral values issues. While their ballot choice cannot speak to that directly, the data do show that Giuliani does not fare as well among religious Republicans as he does among other constituencies within the party. Specifically, Giuliani (27%) and Thompson (24%) are running about neck-and-neck among the most religious Republicans -- those who attend church on a weekly basis. McCain is third among this key group, while Romney and former Arkansas Gov. and ordained minister Mike Huckabee essentially tie for fourth.

Among less religious Republicans, Giuliani is the clear leader, with double-digit leads.

Republican Nomination Preference by Frequency of Church Attendance

	Attend Church Weekly N=689
	%
Giuliani	27
Thompson	24
McCain	17
Romney	9
Huckabee	7
	Attend Monthly N=396
	%
Giuliani	33
Thompson	18
McCain	16
Romney	14
	Seldom/Never Attend N=577
	%
Giuliani	39
Thompson	20
McCain	13
Romney	8

Historically, every Republican nominee for president to this point has been of a Protestant faith. So it is notable that the group of leading contenders for next year's nomination includes a Catholic (Giuliani) and a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints (Romney). Giuliani leads the field by a wide 26-point margin among Republican Catholics. But he has a much smaller 5-point lead among Republican Protestants (including those who identify as "Christian" but do not mention a specific Christian denomination).

Romney is supported by 8% of Republican Protestants, not appreciably worse than his showing among Republicans more generally. That is notable because Gallup research has shown that a majority of Protestants have a negative view of the Mormon religion.

Republican Nomination Preference by Religious Affiliation

	Protestant/"Christian" N=765
	%
Giuliani	28
Thompson	23
McCain	17
Romney	8
	Catholic N=273
	%
Giuliani	44
Thompson	18
McCain	13
Romney	13

Region

Much of the Republican Party's success in electoral politics can be attributed to its strength in the South. Thus, it is important for a Republican presidential candidate to demonstrate an appeal to Southerners. Giuliani and Thompson have been running even among Republicans living in the South, with McCain and in particular Romney trailing by significant margins there.

As is usually the case in nomination campaigns, there is a strong element of a "native son" effect in support for the various candidates. Thompson (the South), Giuliani (the Northeast), and McCain (the West) all have the greatest support in their home regions. Romney's best showings are in the Northeast -- the home region for the former Massachusetts governor -- and in the West, which has a large population of Mormons and where he is known for his leadership of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Republican Nomination Preference by Region of the Country

	Northeast N=327
	%
Giuliani	43
McCain	14
Thompson	14
Romney	13
	Midwest N=365
	%
Giuliani	34
Thompson	17
McCain	16
Romney	9
	South N=616
	%
Thompson	28
Giuliani	28
McCain	12
Romney	6
	West N=382
	%
Giuliani	28
McCain	19
Thompson	18
Romney	14

Page:   1,

 Gallup

[Reagan Man]

More good news for Fred and conservatives. Rooty`s been battered down, but there is still more work to do.

Go Fred08!

[Reagan Man]

>>>>>Gallup seems to see Guiliani ahead on most everything...BUT ----- .....among Republicans who have an opinion of the four leading candidates -- less than half the party base -- the ballot looks very different, with Thompson at 33% support, Giuliani at 26%, Romney at 15%, and McCain at 10%.

Fred has continually changed the primary dynamics since he first announced a possible run for POTUS. His support has been steadily increasing and voters are getting more familiar with Fred the candidate. This trend will only get more positive for Fred as we move closer to the early primaries.

[Little Ray]

I could come up with a win scenario for Rudy, south of the Mason/Dixon:
“Yeah, I’m liberal, but so what? I’m mean, vindictive SOB and they hit MY city. I KNOW how to deal with that. Elect me, and I’ll bring our boys home. But first, I’ll make sure our enemies die, and die screaming.”

Unfortunately that would make him unelectable, just about every where else...

[Tennessean4Bush]

now with victory parades on TV

While I consider myself an optimist and am predicting victory in Iraq in the next 6-9 months, I doubt we will ever be treated to parades. Hope I am wrong.

[2ndDivisionVet]

We truly are two different countries in many ways, aren’t we?

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Not to refight the war, but if the generals you mentioned fought with the actual number of troops they commanded, Forest would have had a hard time beating the entire Army of the Potomac.

[Little Ray]

Yup. And frankly, there are times when I’m ready to see it split up.

[Edit35]

I’d rather support a Mormon with the same conservative values as myself than a back-slidden ‘mainstream’ Christian who still has the same values as looney Democrats.

[Edit35]

Romney is the best GOP candidate, hands down.

I am saddened, almost ashamed, that many FREEpers have such hatred for him.

Like I’ve said before...

Do these Romney-hating Freepers also have the same hatred for Jews, which are not Christian.

Do they also hate Jehovah’s Witnesses?

Or Japanese non-religious type monks?

Ironically, it wasn’t too long ago that fundamental southern Baptists (of which I belonged) thought Catholics were NOT Christian.

Bottom line: I’d rather support a Mormon (Romney) with the same values as myself than a back-slidden Christian with NONE of my values.