Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
It's not just one issue. Giuliani is a liberal, period. Voting for him is turning the country over liberals and assure both parties are left-of-center.
Political rhetoric stated via a POTUS runner previously, "A giant sucking sound" has been given new meaning via a 3rd party in this millennium.
Important Post Bump.
If Mr. Giuliani is the Republican nominee and Mrs. Clinton the Democrat nominee, then a liberal Democrat will be the next president, no matter which nominee wins the election.
>>Rino Rudy is a globalist, statist, socialist liberal.<<
Following below is a news release summarizing the findings of the pro-free market Club for Growth regarding the record of RG. Suffice it to say that he is none of things you allege.
Rudy Giuliani Enacted Pro-Growth Policies Despite Liberal New York Environment
Washington - Today, the Club for Growth released its presidential white paper on Republican presidential candidate New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. The fourth in a series of white papers on presidential candidates, the report (reprinted below and as a PDF file) provides an extensive summary of Rudy Giuliani’s economic policies during his eight years as the mayor of America’s largest city.
“Mayor Giuliani’s economic record is not perfect, but he deserves credit for the remarkable nature of his accomplishments,” Club for Growth President Pat Toomey said. “In a city long accustomed to high taxes and ballooning budgets, Rudy Giuliani successfully cut taxes; kept spending below the growth of inflation and population; instituted sweeping welfare reform; privatized and deregulated many aspects of the city’s bulky bureaucracy; and fought aggressively for school choice.”
The white paper emphasizes the liberal context in which Giuliani was forced to govern. Although the Mayor took a number of anti-growth positions-such as his opposition to NAFTA, his support for McCain Feingold, and his opposition to several tax cuts-he used free-market, limited-government values to turn around a faltering economy in a political environment dominated by a left-wing City Council; public sector labor unions; social welfare activists; and an unfriendly media.
“Rudy Giuliani will still need to flesh out his positions on a number of federal issues, and we hope he will reconsider his few anti-growth positions,” Mr. Toomey said. “But it is impossible to ignore Giuliani’s overall commitment to a pro-growth philosophy and his executive talent for implementing that philosophy in a hostile political environment.”
You're certainly not basing that comment on his record, which is more liberal than Bill Clinton's was in Arkansas.
Sorta reminds one of the democRATS who are so blinded by their hatred of Pres. Bush that they'd rather see us defeated by our enemies.
There are 2 liberals appointed by Clinton on the court. All the past and present liberals with the exception of Breyer and Ginzburg going back to Ford have been appointed by Republican presidents, and including two “moderate” Justices appointed by Reagan, Kennedy and O’Connor who voted more with the liberals than the conservatives. Your chances of getting conservatives from a Republican President are not good to start with; from a liberal Republican President, virtually none.
In order to get the socialist elected, the media will plumb the possibilities of fear and conflict to bring about whatever scenario damages the opposition the most. This means damage to any opposition. They want Fred declared dead, with characterization of asleep and detanched. They want Mitt shown as a waffling poligamist, they want Rudy in drag to scare Pubbie base outside New York, they want the McCain to channel Nixon and the others to be invisible.
Rasmussen is trying to sell product and so he devises a one time poll and if the media buys it and re-commissions it for payment and tweaking they will run it until it is one of the many stumbling blocks being thrown in the path of all who oppose Chairman Hillary.
On this site of long standing where debate should be reasoned and spirited together, we can watch the media's manipulation play out as we fight with each other in accordance with their plan.
The country will be moving far more to the left if Giuliani becomes President.
There is no stopping liberalism when it is advanced by a Republican, especially one that will presiding over a shrinking Republican minority.
Hillary's election, at least, sets the stage for Republicans to take back Congress.
Then you already have been rebutted. Completely. And I haven't barely begun to list all the betrayals by the phoneys. Which are more than W, of course. Lugar, Spectre, McCain, Martinez, Coleman etc.
And you need to also be aware that I was quoting Steven Sabin...about the RNC, whom I concurred with, in his feelings, to wit:
I am also increasingly feeling as though there is nothing conservative about the RNC in terms of actual practice.Tell me how conservative the 2000 convention was. Friends of mine, revered elder statesmen and women in the Reagan movement, were horrified by the back-of-the-bus treatment they received. All for the "Diversity Train" package...that no one even televised or watched. And let's not talk about the damage he did to the Platform often disengenuously...i.e., duplicitously.
Presidential Election of 1980:
Ronald Wilson Reagan: 50.7%
James Earl Carter, Jr.: 41.0%
John Bayard Anderson: 6.6%
Ed Clark: 1.1%
Barry Commoner: 0.3%
Even if you add all of the other candidates together, you get less than Reagan's total (obviously, since he won a majority of the vote).
So, your statement is incorrect.
So he is also a free traitor, another reason not to vote for his worthless hide.
You are wrong about '92: Perot was not conservative. This time, the blame would go to the RINO's who voted for Rudy in the primaries.
Reagan won California and Florida by 17 points. Try again.
>>So he is also a free traitor [sic-trader], another reason not to vote for his worthless hide.<<
As am I. As was Reagan.
Just the opposite is true. You're FAR more likely to get what you don't want under Giuliani, who has a far better chance of getting liberal legislation passed than Hillary Clinton does.
Meanwhile, electing Giuliani assures Democrats gain seats and control Congress for, probably, a decade. While Hillary would set the stage for Republicans gaining back Congress.
I see little to gain favoring a sure thing that I won’t like versus a possibility I won’t like. Hannity is on the radio now making this exact point.
Blaming the GOP loss on the grass-roots makes no sense to me. I place all the blame squarely upon the GOP "leadership".
That is where the blame belongs.
The voters will vote for a candidate or they will vote against a candidate, depending on the choices offered.
Just who the heck are these "swing voters" anyway?
Why do you think they will swing either direction?
The GOP does not own over 50% of the vote, and probably never has.
We depend on swing voters to make up the majority.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.