Skip to comments.27% of Republicans Would Vote for Pro-Life Third Party Instead of Giuliani (Proof Rudy CAN'T Win)
Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say theyd vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe its Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say its Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. Thats down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, In election campaigns, Ive learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
“Its proof that a Pro-Life third party would be idiotic, not proof that Rudy cant win.”
Do that math. 46 is still greater than 44.
Arguing that people who loathe the man should turn out in force and vote for him anyway merely to avoid a Clinton restoration is like standing on the beach and cajoling the tide to refrain from coming in. It is a waste of breath, or in this case bandwidth.
Conservatives need to stop squabbling about how best to deal with the catastrophe of a Guiliani nomination and start working together to avoid that catastrophe.
I have two words for you - WAKE UP! Sorry if I frighten you, but maybe that’s what you need to come out of your deep slumber and see what is going on and where we’re headed.
I no longer listen and take direction from the phony Republican elites like Blankley, Barnes, Krauthammer, etc. If you want to march to their tune instead of thinking for yourself, that’s up to you.
We played that game out here in California with Arnold and have been sorely disappointed. In hindsight, I wished I’d voted my heart for McClintock and risked the valley that Cruz Bustamante would have given us. Now it’s a slow death and the GOP in California will never survive. I will not vote for Rudy. More babies will be saved in the long term if the people are so sickened by a Hillary presidency that they will never vote Democrat or a RINO again.
That's touching. Really. He's running anyway.
I'll ping you when it happens.
“Rudy Derangement Syndrome” = Voters who Refuse to Vote for Liberals of any Party!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! That was funny, you made laugh!
The only way to get conservative judges on the court is to nomination a conservative President that has a desire to appoint conservative justices to the courts.
Are you sure you addressed your reply to the right poster? I didn't intend to argue with anyone, and I thought I made it quite clear where I stand on Rudy being nominated.
If I didn't let me try again. In short, I think it would mean Hillary as our next president, and that would be an unmitigated disaster for both the Republican party and the nation. Furthermore, if by some miracle Rudy were to win the general election it would be a somewhat less complete but still significant disaster for the US, all conservative Americans, and the future viability of the GOP. Is that clear enough?
The lack of principle and stupidity of the pro-Rudy people makes me sick.
Liberal Republicans do far more harm then liberal Democrats.
Well simple reality is the next president will be from one of the two parties. This is the real world, so not voting for either means you end up with the greater of two evils.
another 50% won’t vote for Giulianni because he wants open borders and doesn’t think an ILLEGAL ALIEN broke the law by crossing the border.
Only a 'looney' would toss the traditional conservative base 'under the bus' to support a liberal. Go figure.
Actually, I'd like to see both Ronnie and Rudy out of the race.
I agree with you. A third party is a waste of money, and a spoiler for the Republican party."
Anyway there is no such thing as a perfect candidate.... I wish Dr. Dobson and other religious conservatives would come to their senses....If not, they'll only help get Hillary elected. And that would certainly be worse than if either Guliani or Thompson is elected.