Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Stop the insanity now!
1980 Presidential Election Results
You can mouse over the states to see the state totals. The link is to the 1980 election, but they have all the elections in U.S. history.
Rudy and his murdering bitches of Planned Parenthood can go straight to hell as far as I’m concerned. And they can take Hillary with them..
Seems like I heard this song before. Since I've been old enough to exercise my right to vote, my choices have been: Reagan, Bush, Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush. So we can discount the incomparable President Reagan. 2008 may well end up being more of the same.
The only thing I have to show for 24 years of compromise was the Contract for America. So you'll excuse me if I resist signing up for another round.
Had there been any content to your vapid post, I would have addressed it.
"Thanks for your inspiring advice."
You're more than welcome, although I'm certain that it's wasted on you.
I graduated from a very prestigious law school long ago and am now retired from that tiresome profession. That was when women seldom applied and almost never were accepted into law schools. As a matter of fact, I was the only woman in my class.
Care to explain what any of that proves other than you were a stay-at-home mother and I was a professional woman? You seem to have a serious problem as per your most recent post. Let's make a deal: Since FR has no ignore button, I propose that I will pretend you do not exist should I see you posting anywhere, and I do hope you will have the courtesy to do the same for me.
does anyone have verifiable proof about RonPauls links the hillary camp or guiliani camp?
It seems pretty clear we have candidates whose only function is to be a spoiler.
then say hello to President Clinton,
Ummm, pro-life third party?
Is there such a thing?
Hard to fear something that doesn’t exist.
No we lost because of people like you, who are a single issue voter, and don’t know when to plug their nose and do the right thing. Now we will have president Hildabeast, who will destroy the health care system in this country. Thanks, to people like you.
Rudophiles are going to have to face the simple fact that the GOP will endure a split if they are successful in shoving him down our throats.
There are too many folks, like myself, who will work tirelessly to see to it we have a non-Liberal alternative in the General Election.
take your hard line conservative stand, and we will have Hildabeast as president. If Rudy gets the nomination which I doubt, he will not be as socialistic as the beast. the choice is clear since no 3rd party canidate stands a chance.
Why do people ignore the fact that the GOP has not nominated a pro-abortion candidate in most of our lifetimes. And us pro-lifers are the ones who are shown to be the ones out of the norm.
Whatever.
FR hates the GOP, their concern of a split is feigned, most here no longer even fund them, and campaign against the Republican party daily.
The goal is a new Party to rise from the ashes and save us, after a few more terms of Bill and Hill.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.