Skip to comments.27% of Republicans Would Vote for Pro-Life Third Party Instead of Giuliani (Proof Rudy CAN'T Win)
Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say theyd vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe its Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say its Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. Thats down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, In election campaigns, Ive learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
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If GOP nominates Guiliani, don’t waste your vote, vote your principles VOTE THIRD. It’s the only way your vote will be counted. Don’t be part of a RINO ‘mandate’. Abort RINOs, return the ELEPHANT if not 2008 then 2012.
So because of the purists,we get a generation of real socialist pacifist Dems running the Congress, the Executive, and far worse, SCOTUS. All because, we just cannot live with our guy being left of center who has told the world, he wants to support Scalia and Thomas like jurists who in the long run have the only power to deal with abortion. OK, so lose. Lose for a generation and wonder why the nation goes even more secular, more Third World than if we had a Rudy, Mitt vis a vis a Clintonista Presidency for 8 years. Cutting off our noses to be HOLY? And doing this will not help cut abortions , it will indeed solidify the abortion Dem caucus for a generation or more. Hillary will make mincemeat out of Fred or whoever the Lamb to slaugter we finally send up. And worse, the Congress will be even more liberal Dem. What political geniuses !
Possibly. The GOP purists are constantly trying to rid the party of its Social/Cultural/Morel/Gun issues in pursuit of a more Rokefeller-eques GOP. They have been purists for years, and gave us Ford, Dole, and possibly Rudy911.
But we’re fighting the purists to avoid a Dem Presidency - the inevitable result of forcing Rudy911 down the throats of Conservatives who find him an anathema and then demanding that they abandon all values they hold dear in favor of the only value the Rudophiles seem to have: stopping Clinton.
But those Rudophiles who keep complaining that Freepers are exaggerating Rudy911’s flaws (read: telling the turth) need to stop doing the same about America and Clinton. There is no indication that Hitlery would be a pacifist - she is taking heat from her own party for not being one even during the primaries. And America would survive four years of her - though the Conservative movement would not survive four years of a Rudy911-led GOP.
And stop with the SCOTUS nominees bullcrap. Nobody here is buying the Extreme Primary Makeover that Rudy911 worshipers are trying to sell us on judges. He holds the right to Abortion more sacred than the Holy Sacrament of Communion - he's never, ever, ever, ever, EVER going to nominate a judge who would even CONSIDER overturning Roe. There is no debating that without flagrant lying.
You've been both that, and thrice rude now. And no, I never slandered you. As your responses indicate, there is valid reason for questioning you.
Who do you seriously think has a chance of beating Hillary Tom Tancredo?
Nope. His demeanor is harsh, and he conveys being ill-at-ease at the podium.
Mike Huckaby? [Sic]
Nope. Although he might actually be able to win, he is a likeable politician (albeit as noted by Cato giving him a "D" lifetime grade, he spends like a drunken sailor), the country would likely find another Arkansan one too many.
... or perhaps Alan Keyes.
No. I supported him before in 2000. And he is still among the most true on the key issues. BUT. He has been flaky on some issues he didn't need to be, and shown way too much campaign management weakness (displayed over and over now, ...Alan couldn't even beat Obama)...and the biggest reason for this was his Achilles Heel: The total inability to bite his tongue.
Sometimes silence is the best answer...Alan has never learned this.
I personally like Duncan Hunter the best. He appears to be our best champion. The most solid track record of anti-communism I have seen in the House. He has the clearest and most succinct message...to the point of bluntness. He has been the best thinker we have in the field of national security. His message resonates. And his ability to successfully and winningly campaign in a jerry-mandered district with 70% Democrats proves he is an able messenger candidate himself.
The issue is his name recognition and the limited opportunities for making up ground on that with so many "Teddy-Kennedy-Wing" phoneys in the way. They weren't up on that stage by accident, no matter how insane their candidacies were. E.g., Tommy Thompson?? Clearly one of Bush's many plants to confuse the Base.
So what are we going to do about it? We need to get very busy.
Do you honestly think that a third party could win?
Of course not.
I am opposed to third parties. I believe we need to recapture the Republican Party. And for the Kool-Aid drinkers who are defending the "process" we need them to come to Jesus, and stop living in denial. Admit that the Party machinery has already been lost and needs recapturing. We need to EVICT ALL LIBERALS from any positions of authority or candidacy within the party.
THEY REPRESENT NO LEADERSHIP WORTHY OF THE NAME. HOUSE-CLEAN. NO BIG TENT. No more creepy "New Tone". No more sinister "Diversity" which trumps Reason and Merit.
I have said over and over again that the way to accomplish this is to establish a "Party, within the Party" which has its own center-of-gravity, and which by virtue of its purity on the platform issues, would be able to withstand efforts to undermine or subvert it within the GOP.
It's called the Republican Assembly Movement.
I urge all to join in it.
National Federation of Republican Assemblies,
THE REPUBLICAN WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY
Has it ever done anything other than give us, hmm, let’s see Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton? No, I will not support a third party candidate.
Well, Good. You should be a member of the NFRA, then.
And by the way I consider it a supreme insult that you sneeringly question whether or not I maintain my beliefs.
You have been the one sneering, and smearing, attacking those who are simply saying "enough already", "DUMP RUDY."
I have not done that to anyone-
Wrong. You did right here, imputing that I am for splitting off from the Party, when I am not, but I won't belabor your continued misrepresentation, pomposity, extreme rudeness, etc...
I simply disagree with your assessment of the best strategy. But you choose to slander me.
Wrong. You are projecting your own suspicions on those who won't cavalierly drink the Kool-Aid.
Save your effort, I will not reply to you again.
Well, if that's the way you want it!
Somehow, unless you apologize, I think you would just continue in the same defamatory refrain anyways, if you did reply. And continue to misrepresent what I am proposing ... the pre-emptive Dumping of Rudy.
Excellent point of attack.
However, and unfortunately, it does not cure the entitlement mentality upon which the freebies is based. This is an individual heart issue.
Certainly we need to groom and support more conservative broadcasters to educate the sheep, as Rush does.
My thinking relates to a congress that can run interference on billary.
I would support the ads that you suggest. Our members and the intellect they bring have put major dents in the left agenda in the past.
If you pick up such a crusade, or somebody begins such an ad campaign, let me know...check is on the way.
Look at the division and infighting Giuliani is already causing, and he isn’t yet the nominee.
Actually ALL social issues would be dead in both parties. Choosing between Hillary and Rudy would be a horrific choice. Conservatives must band behind one conservative candidate, or that choice will be reality.
That's like saying...
'my wife is unattractive, so I'm going have an affair with a woman twice as ugly.'
Yes, your vote will then be counted among those that are so blinded by one single issue that they chose by default to elect Hillary instead.
Then you’ll get that socialism you speak of.
Stop ingesting the stuff being fed to you by the elite media, right or left. Try doing some thinking for yourself if you have the capability. If not, it’s a pity, but not surprising.
Evil is evil.
Yes, but this is reality. In many cases you have no choice but to choose from the lessor of two evils. Ignoring this fact does not make it go away.
call me dense, if you dont support the nominee you in effect elect the beast, that is the definition of dense. I don’t necessarily like Rudy, but he has to be better than the hildabeast. We know what it was like under one clintoon administration, the beast will be worse. I will not vote for hillary, but a vote for a third party is the samething.
Ah, but this is not such an occasion. We have plenty of time to eradicate Rudy from serious contention.
We do need to coalesce around one consistently conservative "umbrella" candidate. And now, while making it clear that the fracturing of the Base by the liberals means...Rudy has to go. That will drain away the logic from those who mindlessly support him based on a "winnability" thesis.
I will be blunt, to get there, we need to get the field dramatically narrowed. Without question Brownback should withdraw. Also obviously there as a favor to Bush. Huckabee should withdraw. Too liberal. Romney should face the financial realities. His campaign is held up by his checkbook alone. His credibility is seriously questioned. He should stop the bleeding, and withdraw and throw his support to the guy whose views he has tried to echo. We know who that is. We also know who else needs to go. Tancredo. He also needs to stop splitting the border enforcement consensus, and throw his support to Hunter, and then we have a four-way contest still, between him, Giuliani, McCain (who will NEVER withdraw), and Ron Paul...who will also obviously be there to the end.
We may well be looking at a brokered Convention here in St. Paul, but I frankly feel that Hunter would do quite well based on his history and solid positions, he will appeal to enough delegates to break the slates.
so, you in effect put the beast in office. not just a socialist, worse. Rudy might be considered by many on this forum as a socialist, but he will not destroy this country as fast as the Hildabeast will. At least with Rudy after four or eight years we may be able to save the U.S. with the Hildabeast it would in my view be questionable.
Your perspecitve is mistaken.
Do you want national health care - socialized medicine? That's Hillary's prime goal once in the W.H. With democrat majorities in the House and Senate vitually a given, and Hillary in the house, we may get to wait 3 months or more for critical surgery.
No, it's like saying I'd rather be alone than with either one.
A vote for a third party candidate is like throwing it away.
I don't care who the Republican nominee is...he will get my vote.
“I dont necessarily like Rudy, but he has to be better than the hildabeast.”
He isn’t, and voting for him, even against Hillary, is unacceptable to 27% of the base. On the things that matter, to moral conservatives, there is NO difference between the two. Actually, Rudy scares me more that Hillary.
This sucks, as I admire Rudy’s accomplishments. But we have to face reality, so supporting him in the primary is unwise.
I’ve concluded that Fred Thompson is the best choice for President. But Giuliani would be a great choice for running mate, as he would bring great strengt in the northeastern states.
Stop the insanity now!
You can mouse over the states to see the state totals. The link is to the 1980 election, but they have all the elections in U.S. history.
Rudy and his murdering bitches of Planned Parenthood can go straight to hell as far as I’m concerned. And they can take Hillary with them..
Seems like I heard this song before. Since I've been old enough to exercise my right to vote, my choices have been: Reagan, Bush, Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush. So we can discount the incomparable President Reagan. 2008 may well end up being more of the same.
The only thing I have to show for 24 years of compromise was the Contract for America. So you'll excuse me if I resist signing up for another round.
Had there been any content to your vapid post, I would have addressed it.
"Thanks for your inspiring advice."
You're more than welcome, although I'm certain that it's wasted on you.
I graduated from a very prestigious law school long ago and am now retired from that tiresome profession. That was when women seldom applied and almost never were accepted into law schools. As a matter of fact, I was the only woman in my class.
Care to explain what any of that proves other than you were a stay-at-home mother and I was a professional woman? You seem to have a serious problem as per your most recent post. Let's make a deal: Since FR has no ignore button, I propose that I will pretend you do not exist should I see you posting anywhere, and I do hope you will have the courtesy to do the same for me.
does anyone have verifiable proof about RonPauls links the hillary camp or guiliani camp?
It seems pretty clear we have candidates whose only function is to be a spoiler.
then say hello to President Clinton,
Ummm, pro-life third party?
Is there such a thing?
Hard to fear something that doesn’t exist.
No we lost because of people like you, who are a single issue voter, and don’t know when to plug their nose and do the right thing. Now we will have president Hildabeast, who will destroy the health care system in this country. Thanks, to people like you.
Rudophiles are going to have to face the simple fact that the GOP will endure a split if they are successful in shoving him down our throats.
There are too many folks, like myself, who will work tirelessly to see to it we have a non-Liberal alternative in the General Election.
take your hard line conservative stand, and we will have Hildabeast as president. If Rudy gets the nomination which I doubt, he will not be as socialistic as the beast. the choice is clear since no 3rd party canidate stands a chance.
Why do people ignore the fact that the GOP has not nominated a pro-abortion candidate in most of our lifetimes. And us pro-lifers are the ones who are shown to be the ones out of the norm.
FR hates the GOP, their concern of a split is feigned, most here no longer even fund them, and campaign against the Republican party daily.
The goal is a new Party to rise from the ashes and save us, after a few more terms of Bill and Hill.