Skip to comments.27% of Republicans Would Vote for Pro-Life Third Party Instead of Giuliani (Proof Rudy CAN'T Win)
Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say theyd vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe its Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say its Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. Thats down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, In election campaigns, Ive learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
first I dont believe Rudy is a socialist, second you can jump straight to Socialist Hildabeast, just because the canidate is not as conservative as you wish. WAKE UP, nobody is going to be your perfect canidate. Not a single person in the race is as conservative as you would wish for, so what do you do, vote for a third party and you get Hildabeast. thanks for speeding up the process....
AMEN sister, Personally I think there are way to many DEm trolls on the site.
Since the GOP is already on life support with two feet in the grave what’s the difference?
See post 45, word for word, lol!
||Giuliani||Clinton||Dem Platform||GOP Platform|
|Abortion on Demand||Supports||Supports||Supports||Opposes|
|Partial Birth Abortion||Supports
|Roe v. Wade||Supports||Supports||Supports||Opposes|
|Taxpayer Funded Abortions||Supports||Supports||Supports||Opposes|
|Embryonic Stem Cell Research||Supports||Supports||Supports||Opposes|
|Federal Marriage Amendment||Opposes||Opposes||Opposes
|Gay Domestic Partnership/
|Openly Gay Military||Supports||Supports||Supports||Opposes|
|Defense of Marriage Act||Opposes||Opposes||Opposes||Supports|
|Amnesty for Illegal Aliens||Supports||Supports||Supports||Opposes|
|Special Path to Citizenship
for Illegal Aliens
|Tough Penalties for
Employers of Illegal Aliens
Ignoring Immigration Law
|Protecting 2nd Amendment||Opposes
|'Assault' Weapons Ban||Supports||Supports||Supports|
Against Gun Makers
|War in Afghanistan||Supports||Supports
Voted for it
|War in Iraq||Supports||Supports
Voted for it
Voted for it
2001 & 2006
your statement about the GOP is not supported by the graph you posted. Go ahead and vote third party, and live with President Hildabeast. you are going to get what you ask for.
“Meanwhile, Mrs. Clinton is inviting the decorators into the White House to measure for the new window treatments.”
Why measure? Can’t she just use the ones she took after she left the first time?
I apologize for not being clear. My post was meant to be SUPPORTIVE of your position. I knew that you did not support 3rd party candidates. I was not clear that I was supporting you. The “Bully for you.” was meant to represent that but on second reading I see where the tone could be misunderstood. I am a new poster and will try to do better.
Thanks for your response.
Thank you for your polite reply.
We have barely had this Roe vs Wade a full generation. Of course we haven’t had a pro abortion candidate from the GOP. How is that significant? There ARE conservatives who are neutral on that issue. Not all conservatives are grounded in Christianity. I guess there is no room for them?
I am pro life....but I will vote for ANYONE who is the GOP nominee if for no other reason than to protest vehemently socialist Hillary. You can count on the fact that Hillary is pro abortion.
However, the fact is that the GOP has had a pro-life agenda for many years, and now the Christians are made out to be the ones who are off track. That is simply not the case. The truth is that the pro-choice “conservatives” want to throw us from the train.
I can promise you that when a pro-abortion candidate gets the GOP nomination, it’ll be the end of the GOP as a real force. The Christian conservatives are it’s backbone, whether you like it or not.
I, along with millions of other Christians, will vote 3rd party, or leave the spot blank for any candidate on the ballot that we know to be bro-abortion.
No such thing. They care nothing about a Conservative agenda voting for a third party. They are sore losers because their special interest wasn't being fullfilled. If they really cared about Conservatism, they wouldn't be putting a liberal in office to elect liberal judges....which would put their 'special issue' to the left even more. Makes no sense.
This article makes Liberals Hearts fill with Joy.
Liberals LOVE you.
Thank you. If Dobson and his followers get their wish it will be disastrous.
I have to wonder how electing Hillary is going to help the anti-abortion cause.
If we don’t win continue the war against terror, you won’t have to worry about abortions.
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