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27% of Republicans Would Vote for Pro-Life Third Party Instead of Giuliani (Proof Rudy CAN'T Win)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10-4-07 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC

If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.

Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.

The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.

The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.

Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.

The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.

With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.

Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.

Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.

Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.

Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is" And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; giuliani; giulianitruthfile; rds; rudy
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To: Rudder
That ought to give the pro-life Democrat movement a boost

Fixed it.

521 posted on 10/09/2007 6:09:24 AM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
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To: All

Let’s just all hope that Thompson kicks butt tonight.

522 posted on 10/09/2007 6:11:25 AM PDT by Fawn (
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To: Ol' Sparky
“Liberal Republicans do far more damage than liberal Democrats.”

I’ve got to hand it to you...there’s truth in that phrase. Look at the Clinton era as opposed to the “W” era. When was the Republican party more united an energized? When was it more dispirited and fractured.

GW has done more damage to our cause in the past 8 years than I could have ever imagined. I can’t imagine how the party could survive another presidency like his has been.

523 posted on 10/09/2007 6:12:39 AM PDT by RavenATB
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To: Strategerist
It’s proof that a Pro-Life third party would be idiotic, not proof that Rudy can’t win.

Yep like the "stay at home and teach the Republicans a lesson" from the '06 elections that put 'Rats in control of Congress.

They don't think.

524 posted on 10/09/2007 6:16:10 AM PDT by submarinerswife ("If I win I can't be stopped! If I lose I shall be dead." - George S. Patton)
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To: TitansAFC

No better way to insure a Hillary victory!!!! No better way to insure more abortions!! No better way to raise taxes!!!No better way to insure the UNITED STATES OF SOCIALIST AMERICA!! No better way to convert our intelligence agencies into Hillary’s secret police!! No better way to destroy our military!! No better way to lose the war on terror!!! Think twice folks the future’s in your hands.

525 posted on 10/09/2007 6:24:11 AM PDT by kenmcg
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To: Strategerist
“It’s proof that a Pro-Life third party would be idiotic, not proof that Rudy can’t win.”

What it actually proves is:

1.Rudy EQUALS Hillary. With either of them in the White House, the country will not be headed in a conservative direction.

2. The Republican Party is only playing social-issues tag with the Democratic Party — trying to get in line with the Democratic Party. So the traditional segment of the GOP is begging to see if there is any more a difference worth fighting about.

3. A huge segment of the Republican Party is now ONLY fiscally conservative. And another segment is fiscally Libertarian. Yet a third segment is outright globalist.

4. Rudy should not be the candidate, nor should he have gotten this far.

526 posted on 10/09/2007 6:26:47 AM PDT by John Leland 1789
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To: Fawn
Liberals LOVE you.

They'll love The GOP if Giuliani is the nominee.
527 posted on 10/09/2007 6:29:29 AM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it!)
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To: submarinerswife
They do think.

As posted above, they think it was more satisfying to be in the minority, more “energizing and united”, as it was put, and many, many here have admitted that they do not want Republican majorities in Congress because they “act like Democrats”, and a Republican in the WH will sign all their spending bills.

So, no sense arguing with those who enjoy minority status, and find majority status to difficult.

Our efforts should be in convincing our fellow Americans to give up their incessant need to be taken care of by Hill and Bill.

For those 2 commies have never been beaten by the Right, and are leading all our guys in polls right now.

528 posted on 10/09/2007 6:39:03 AM PDT by roses of sharon
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To: Fawn
“If we don’t win continue the war against terror, you won’t have to worry about abortions.”

How many pro-life candidates do you know of who are not also for fighting the war on terror? Rudy911 is not the only one who speaks of the war.

529 posted on 10/09/2007 6:42:40 AM PDT by Preachin' (Enoch's testimony was that he pleased God: Why are we still here?)
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To: Jen's Mom
I am rather disgusted the the attitudes of people who are so blinded by their hatred of Rudy that they obviously don't give a rat's patoot that their arrogance is in Hillary's favor.

There isn't a nickel's worth of difference...

530 posted on 10/09/2007 6:43:36 AM PDT by Sir Francis Dashwood (LET'S ROLL!)
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To: Fawn; Preachin'

There are muslims who believe in live and let live. Then there are extremist muslims whose goals are that every one should live under Sharia law or die.

There are Christians who believe in live and let live. Then there are extremist Christians who want to compel everyone to live under the rules of their interpretation of the Christian faith. Jesus did not compel. Jesus was a loving example. I see no love in the hate, rage and fury of the birth of this new “third party”.

531 posted on 10/09/2007 7:05:01 AM PDT by Dudoight
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To: Dudoight
“Jesus was a loving example.”

Would you like me to find about 20-30 verses where Jesus was offended people? That would be easy.

Even the Apostle Paul stated that if he were a man pleaser, he is not the servant of Christ.

Galatians 1:10: 10 For do I now persuade men, or God? or do I seek to please men? for if I yet pleased men, I should not be the servant of Christ.

By the way, it’s not hateful to say I won’t vote for a man who does not esteem my values. It’s also not hateful to say I will vote 3rd party, if necessary.

If you feel comfortable calling me hateful, I am sorry to have engaged in any debate with you.

532 posted on 10/09/2007 7:22:26 AM PDT by Preachin' (Enoch's testimony was that he pleased God: Why are we still here?)
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To: roses of sharon

Clinton won with 40% of the vote in ‘92 (if my memory serves me right)

Sitting around letting another Clinton in office is far worse than their “thinking minds” could imagine. Wanting a third party to spring up and take control over the next year is a pipe dream on their part.

I am not convinced they are living in reality.

533 posted on 10/09/2007 7:27:16 AM PDT by submarinerswife ("If I win I can't be stopped! If I lose I shall be dead." - George S. Patton)
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To: Preachin'

I see you as having the goal that all conservatives should dance to the tune of YOUR Christianity.

What about these conservatives: good, kind ethical Jews, Hindus, Buddahists, Athiests? Even good kind Muslims? There is no room for them and their beliefs in YOUR third party.

This country is grounded in Judeo-Christian foundations. Thank God. But integrated in that foundation is something called tolerance. This government was not instituted by the founders to be Christian or Biblical. That is a personal realm, not a governmental realm. When governments are ruled by religion...people die. (even Christian Governments, and don’t refer me back to a bunch of Popes, think Calvinists in Switzerland, Puritans in New England and so forth).

You need to be thankful that we do live in a country where Christians CAN worship and live their lives by their Christian tenets.

If you can’t make the leap emotionally or intellectually to do everything in your power to prevent Hillary’s socialism (which will REALLY be the first big step toward the destruction of our religious rights) then I can add nothing further to this discussion.

534 posted on 10/09/2007 7:37:04 AM PDT by Dudoight
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To: submarinerswife

See post #45, they do want the GOP destroyed to begin anew, and most here are no longer even funding the RNC.

So, obviously they are hoping for a 3rd and 4th term for Bill and Hill.

Maybe its some kind of Utopian dream, a comfortable refuge, that means no hard work or uncomfortable decisions.

535 posted on 10/09/2007 7:39:25 AM PDT by roses of sharon
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To: Dudoight
“I see you as having the goal that all conservatives should dance to the tune of YOUR Christianity.”

Really, the point is that the Christians are made out to look like we are the ones pushing for change, when in fact we are the core of the GOP. It has been that way since President Reagan, and the advent of the Moral Majority.

You are cool to vote however you want to vote, and I also feel no obligation to vote for Rudy. The best thing you can do is get Rudy nominated and you can say goodbye to us forever.

I am not hateful for that, am I?

536 posted on 10/09/2007 7:54:01 AM PDT by Preachin' (Enoch's testimony was that he pleased God: Why are we still here?)
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To: Preachin'

Yes...I think it is really hateful for a bunch of Christians to give this Nation another Clinton. It is arrogant and self righteous.

Hillary is counting on you and your ilk to get her into office. She is NO dummy. She loves Dr. Dobson...he is her ticket to ride.

537 posted on 10/09/2007 8:00:04 AM PDT by Dudoight
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To: Bainbridge

Rudy is part of the evil left. He’ll be another Arnold Schwarzenegger. What makes you think he is a conservative?

For that matter, when the real campaign gets going, what makes people think Rudy can win? I can just see him getting a phone call from his wife in the middle of a big speech while on the campaign trail.

Rudy is a leftist and a loon... or is that redundant?

538 posted on 10/09/2007 8:00:22 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX
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To: roses of sharon

If you don’t hold to your principles, then why even say you have them? You don’t. You just talk a good game.

539 posted on 10/09/2007 8:01:57 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX
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To: RavenATB
-—”I have to wonder how electing Hillary is going to help the anti-abortion cause”-—

Well, if we’re going by record - Rudy911 is the preferred choice of the Pro-Abortion groups. Hitlery is the lesser of two evils, though not by much.

540 posted on 10/09/2007 8:09:05 AM PDT by TitansAFC ("My 80% enemy is not my 20% friend" -- Common Sense)
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