Skip to comments.27% of Republicans Would Vote for Pro-Life Third Party Instead of Giuliani (Proof Rudy CAN'T Win)
Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say theyd vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe its Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say its Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. Thats down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, In election campaigns, Ive learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Sigh. I get the same feeling. There is an immovable force vs. irresistible object thing going on with Rudy911 and Conservatives like me who would never, ever vote for him. And the media will side with Hillary over any of the other GOPers - which normally does not scare me, but considering the mood of the country right now and the GOP’s suicidal tendencies under the current “let’s move left now before it’s too late” battleplan.
Maybe we can pull it off, but it's going to take something like a Fred push or a late Romney run to get the party unified for 2008.
You are wrong and make no sense. You don’t even know who I want—personally. However, I know that the people who are going to sit home or vote 3rd party if it’s Rudy ARE hypocrits.
-—”However, I know that the people who are going to sit home or vote 3rd party if its Rudy ARE hypocrits.”-—
Then you do not know the meaning of the word. Not supporting a Liberal who has been an activist against our dearest causes is called “being consistent,” not “hypocritical.” If it was wrong to support a democrat who did it, it’s wrong to support a Republican who did it. Rudy911 once described himself as “one of the most effective abortion rights activists in America” before a NARAL meeting. He was right.
And I’m pretty sure you’re a Rudophile. But you’re right, I don’t know that 100% - yet.
“And I will support anyone who is Right of them.”
That’s just it. Rudy is not in the least to the right of the Dems. He holds all the same views that Hillary does. I don’t see any difference.
We conservatives thought we had it made when we had a Republican president and majorities in the Senate and the House. What happened? They went on a spending, vote-buying spree that would make a Kennedy blush. And those were the ones who promised to usher in a new day of limited government when they were elected! Rudy doesn’t even give it lip service. No thanks. I would rather have a Dem president and a Republican Congress, than a Republican RHINO in the White House. At least if we have gridlock, Hill’s plans might be thwarted.
That is certainly your right to do so. However, once they are elected, our influence is almost nil. As an example, there is Bush and the immigration issue. I would rather have a Republican Congress and a Dem president, than a RHINO president. At least then, the Republicans might stand up and fight.
They did, too. For about a day.
LOL. I stand corrected.
I begin to think that one day’s worth of hope is about all we can expect from politics.
You just don’t get it.
I don’t want Rudy...I Huckabee. I am NOT going to get what I want.
But I am terrified of Hillary.
And I will vote for anything they put up as the GOP nominee in hopes of keeping Hillary out.
I would bet that most of the people on this forum are not FOR Guiliani...the big worry is getting Hillary.
I can’t imagine that getting Hillary would be BETTER than stowing your Christian Hubris in order to keep her out. Just because the GOP doesn’t kiss your ring YOU are going to SHOW them. Whew...good thinking kid! To hell with what happens to our country. I HATE where the republicans have gone...I feel betrayed. But I am going to keep Hillary out of the white house if I can.
WAKE UP, Preacher, you and Dr. Dobson.
He wants to give it to illegals and make us pay for it:
...the big worry is getting Hillary.
Anyone who thinks Mrs. Clinton is the be all, end all of the election has already conceded defeat.
Maybe for you. The big worry for me is sacrificing my Christian values and voting for a pro abortion politician. I simply will not participate in that.
You do what you are compelled to do, and I will do what I am compelled to do. I will do it right along with many millions who have the same convictions, and I will never ever feel any shame for it.
Well, okay. I guess in your mind the Good Lord wants us to live under a Godless socialistic ruler to punish the USA for not nominating in a pure Christian.
You and your crowd will be real proud of yourselves for being the instrument of the Lord’s wrath!
President Hillary delivered to us by the ‘Christian Right’. You just gotta love it!
I am pretty ticked off at the RNC because they are wimps. They let the Libs get away with murder and lie down thinking they are taking the high ground. Going back to 2000 when Dashcle and the Dems filibustered judges. Screw 'em. If they want to filibuster, then make them filibuster the old fashion way.
President Bush is my guy. I do wish however that from Sept 11 on, he would have gone on TV to talk to us directly. Rather than through the media in an interveiw or press conference. Much like Reagan and Roosevelt.
I agree with you that a third party, ala James Dobson is just idiotic. No two ways about it.
I saw where some on replied to you that (paraphrasing)that "if you don't stand up for your principles, what will you stand for?"
I would say that my principles are represented with Conservatives and they are smashed by Liberals. Sit home if you wish but you lose.
“Well, okay. I guess in your mind the Good Lord wants us to live under a Godless socialistic ruler to punish the USA for not nominating in a pure Christian.”
And in your mind I guess you think He’s okay with us voting for a pro abortion candidate for other thing?
If you’re okay with that, then do it. I won’t. Period. Also, no amount of debate you can stir will change the mind of millions just like me.
It is precisely this kind of thinking that is giving power to the RINOs in our party. It is also this kind of thinking that drives the wedges tearing the party apart.
Yet you castigate the very Conservatives that are insisting the Republican Party uphold the principles that are the basis of the Republican and Conservative ideology.
What more are you willing to compromise in order to win?
If the Republican Party does not defend the principles we hold dear this time, what makes you believe they will ever uphold them again?
I am far less frightened of Hillary and the Socialist Democrats than I am of Republican Socialists. If the Socialist/Globalist RINOs continue in power, there will be no more Conservatism. The Republicans will be the instrument of our demise. That we allow them is to our shame. That we prefer them is the makings of our own demise.
There are things at play that are worse than losing.
You are making the assumtion that I am castigating Conservatives?? You are looking for a fight but not with me.
I won’t compromise my principles even for the militants that want to follow James Dobson into the abyss.
You, not knowing what my principles are to begin with, shouldn’t assume anything about me.
Worry about your own demise under the Hildebeast that you fear “less than Republican Socialists”
Ron Paul is your man.
True, but by the same token, it is the Judeo-Christian ethic that gives us our sense of virtue, our sense of good and evil. Our system only works if there is a unified sense of the moral ethic. That is why multiculturalism is ripping us apart.
To vilify Christians who are the keepers of our sense of social justice for upholding the tenants of their faith is tantamount to rejection of the very root of our definition of "American". You may try to replace the moral sense, but if you do you are no different than the Socialists, because that is precisely what they have been doing all along. It is the disintegration of that moral sense that gives credence to their bastardized form of social justice which is the sole source of their power.
Sorry for assuming that your principles were compatible to the standard traditional platform of the Republican party which are by and large the same as those professed by all Conservatives. My bad.
I am not looking for a fight, I am trying to understand how folks can think that undermining any of the principles we agree upon can be anything but anathema for us all.
What will be next? Shall we compromise on the second amendment too? Is that worth winning the day? Will you be just as vehement to those who hold the 2A inviolate and thereby cannot vote for some future candidate?
When governments are ruled by atheism, people die.
When governments are ruled by secular humanists, people die.
The point is, people kill each other, particularly if they are trying to maintain power.
And that means keeping the Commie-Vampires Dimocrats out of office, without power, in the minority, and since their party is ADMITTEDLY anti-American, and routinely undermines our national security, and leaks intell which aid and abet our enemies in a time of war, are ADMITTEDLY UNAMERICAN.
They shrink from the cross and the flag, and have sucked the lifeblood out of anything good in this country for decades.
I’m sticking with the good guys, and will support whomever wins the nomination
No way will I participate in the election of anyone who is a member of a party that betrays their country with impunity.
Tell me how unafraid you are of Hillary again?
Particularly with Giuliani (and I would argue others as well), He stands for three of those four overwhelmingly by his record, regardless of what he says he is running on.
Tell me how unafraid you are of Hillary again?
If we elect an anti-gun, pro-abortion, pro-gay Republican even once, those issues will no longer be defended by the party ever again. The next offering of candidates will be even further to the left, you can be sure of that.
Electing liberal Republicans virtually removes those issues from the Republican platform. To put up wit Hitlery is very bad, but it is over at some point. If we continue to remove planks from the Republican platform, soon there will be nothing to stand upon. That is far worse.
Clinton’s husband neutered the CIA, gave missle technology to the ChiComs, raped and screwed every woman he could get a hold of and they even put water flow restrictors on toilet tanks. And worse yet, they set us up for 9/11.
If you think that we are deserving of another Clinton go around, then you need to vote third party. Go into the wilderness and leave Conservatism and politics to the adults. You are hopeless.
Adults... Hmmm... Do you mean those Republicans who failed to restore Eminent Domain? Those hardy few who tried to sell control of our ports to foreign powers? Those stalwart Conservatives who tried to uphold our principles by allowing "path to citizenship" shamnesty to illegal aliens within our borders? Those adults?
Yes I am hopeless, or so it seems. So many of us here are willing to throw out the baby in order to save the bathwater. You may keep your RINOs. I will have naught to do with them.
This is the last bit of my time I will allow you to waste on this ridiculous argument.
It’s Bush’s fault, it’s the Republican’s fault. Tear up your RNC membership and stop whining, already.
I think this country must continue forever with the Judeo-Christian morality/ethic if it is to survive as the nation founded by our forefathers. We also need a whole new republican congress.
We are in the process of losing this what we once were. If Hillary wins we will be further down that road.
My contention is that I will vote for ANY GOP nominee even if he does not have the same moral code as myself. If he does not have the same moral code my vote in reality will be an vote AGAINST Hillary rather than a vote FOR the GOP nominee.
I am terrified of Hillary enough not to waste my vote on a third party. I am terrified enough of Hillary that I would not participate in ‘not voting’ as a protest against the GOP nominee.
You make me PROUD son...:)
Imagine that, standing by your convictions!!!... Naaaahhhh... that's out and stupid. Vote for a queer-lover like Julie-Annie, Ha! :)
Proud to be one of the STUPID 27% :)
That, FRiend, is exactly wrong. The RINO Globalists and the Democrat Socialists have compatible agendas in many areas. To leave the RINOs in power is what will really put us further down the road.
The Republicans are the keepers of the faith, the keepers of the patriot dream. We are the only force left in the world able to defeat communism/socialism, but we do not nor can we if the RINOs are in power. It is absolutely paramount that we clean our own house whatever the cost, because without that step we are rendered toothless.
It matters not a wit what we do or don't do as long as Conservatives are the minority of the minority party. Especially so if RINOs can win by playing on your fears. All we get is a smaller minority and less significance.
It must be our highest priority to challenge RINOs across the board, including the presidency! If we do not, all that we hold dear and have fought for will amount to nothing.
And you would throw your vote away on an unprincipled moron who stands for nothing you believe in?
Since you don't believe in principles you must be driven by something... What is it? Fear?
If what we believe in is a minority of a minority party...then this whole debate is moot.
We are already lost. So why bother?
It isn't that we are a minority, but that there aren't enough Conservatives elected to Congress. Our Congressional leadership is RINO and will remain RINO until one of two things happens:
1)Enough Conservatives are elected to force a change in leadership.
2)We must lose, and lose big in an election... If that happens the party leadership generally must step down and new leadership is appointed, as the loss is taken as a vote of no confidence. Since the RINOs are in leadership, the Conservatives would take control.
Whether voting out of principle or because you are fed up with the party's direction, the intent should be to vote Conservative rather than "any ol Republican will do". If we continue to elect people who do not believe what we do, what will be the inevitable end?