Posted on 10/04/2007 9:38:23 AM PDT by TitansAFC
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Most Republican voters consider themselves Pro-Life on the issue of Abortion. Most Democrats and Unaffiliated Voters are Pro-Choice.
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
Electability is a crucial issue for Giuliani because two-thirds of Republican voters seen him as politically moderate or liberal. That is a challenge unto itself in a political party where most primary voters consider themselves politically conservative. Fred Thompson is currently viewed as the most conservative candidate in the field.
Three of the last four Presidential elections have seen a candidate win with less than 50% of the total votes cast. If Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential nomination, there is a very reasonable possibility that neither major party candidate would top the 50% mark in Election 2008. With such a scenario, third party candidates on either side of the political spectrum could play a significant role by peeling away one or two percentage points of the vote.
Clinton is currently leading the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, but her victory is not inevitable. Among Republicans, Thompson and Giuliani lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
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The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”
Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
If it is true that the GOP base is voting on ONE SINGLE ISSUE (abortion) then we deserve to lose.
I myself will vote for ANY Republican running against the Hildabeast.
Unfortunately you fail to realize that it is the middle that decide elections
Nope. "Not gonna vote R," because I don't ever vote for liberals, R or D. I am a conservative and when the Republican party stops being the conservative party, it will have left me and I will no longer vote for its nominee.
According to the article: the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Since 30 + 14 is only 44, it doesn't appear that Rudy can win even if there's no third party.
If Rudy had any class, he'd drop out of the race.
And, if conservatives vote for Giuliani and he is elected, they will get what they deserve -- a liberal working with Democrats to advance liberal legislation with NO resistance in Congress and while presiding over a shrinking minority in Congress. And, NO chance at conservative President for eight years or Republicans retaking Congress for at least a decade.
Depends on the OTHER views of the third pat pro life candidate.
If that was their only issue I would vote with the 73%
Thank you,
Mole...
The announcement by Dr. Dobson is not intended to herald the impending support of a third-party candidate against both Hillary and Rudy. It is intended to torpedo Rudy’s nomination now, while something can be done about it.
You want a unified Republican party? Don’t nominate Rudy.
Republicans weren’t offered a similar choice to have nixed Perot prior to the ‘92 election. If Rudy gets the nod anyway, no one can say they weren’t warned.
If Hillary wins, she will push the SCOTUS so far left that conservative social issues will be history for at least a generation. I would much rather take my chances with SCOTUS appointees from Rudy than from Hillary.
You know it’s about countless issues more than just his rabid Pro-Abortion activism.
them principles look good, all polished and up on the mantle piece, gathering tarnish and rust during the next eight years of hell
Not as long as people like you throw up their hands and say it isn't possible. Other people refuse to give up the fight.
Many times a vote against is as logical as a vote for.
Agreed.
All of the CFR candidates should be invited to depart, post haste.
Once the covert Anti-American's are out of there, then we get about saving the country before its really too late.
but we still have our principles
-—”them principles look good, all polished and up on the mantle piece, gathering tarnish and rust during the next eight years of hell”-—
You’re right, who needs principles?
They only get in the way.......
Actually, it’ll be thanks to liberal republicans who insist on imposing their liberalism on the GOP.
I agree...I don’t believe Rudy can win anyway...of course, Dobson has said he won’t support Thompson either...which I feel is a mistake on his part.
But, a non-vote or a vote for a third party is a vote for the democrat
>>According to the article: the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Since 30 + 14 is only 44, it doesn’t appear that Rudy can win even if there’s no third party.<<
46-44 is a statistical tie, with 10% still outstanding. He very much could win.
Wrong. It's proof 30% of Republicans are IDIOTS that or at the least the percentage of those Republicans that are conservative that would vote for Giuliani are.
Liberal Republicans do far more damage than liberal Democrats. A liberal Republican has a far better chance of getting liberal legislation passed than Hillary Clinton does. A liberal Republican will guarantee Republicans become a shrinking minority in Congress while Hillary Presidency would set the stage for massive Republican gains.
The best option would for all conservatives to get behind a strong conservative, third-party candidate, who in this scenario could win.
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