Skip to comments.Is “peak oil” the new end-of-the-world?
Posted on 10/16/2007 6:11:57 PM PDT by SJackson
Peak oil is becoming the latest doomsday buzzword. What is it? Its a well-thought-out theory that predicts that the rate at which we find and recover oil is soon going to fall behind the rate at which we consume it. The point at which that happens is the peak. Prior to this peak, prices will have been relatively stable and reasonable, and the economies of the world have grown because the supply of energy outpaced the demand. But there is coming a time, and some say its here now, when the worlds oil fields cannot produce as fast as we consume. Demand will exceed supply, oil prices are going to skyrocket, and the worlds economies are going to begin to fail as the oil fields themselves fail.
Oil today is important to civilization. We use it to produce electric power and to make gasoline, heating oil, fertilizer, chemicals, plastics, and more. Eighty-four percent goes to power and fuel, and only 16% to other things. What happens if we run out? Tidy little doomsday scenarios have been woven and show how transportation will stop running, food production will drop because of less fertilizer and pesticides, currency markets will fail, prices of everything will take off, and this will mean both the end of civilization as we know it and an irreversible decline in the human condition. Its all very neat, but that doesnt mean its accurate.
(Excerpt) Read more at backwoodshome.com ...
Haven’t posted much from here since they required excerpting, but he’s right, the world isn’t about to end.
We were told “peak oil” was in the 70’s under carter and the coming ice age. If we listened to all the doomsday’ers, the world would have ended in 06 as in 0006.
I don’t know, but I will tell you this: A lot of liberals have drank the “peak oil” Kool-Aid.
Discovering who makes up the group of adherents is often as interesting as the actual topic. In the case of peak oil, more-so.
I have a friend who is currently pretty close to intolerable right now because of this stuff.
International Energy Outlook 2007
Chapter 3 - Petroleum and Other Liquids Fuels
Energy Information Administration
GW ecodoomsters and peak oil scaremongers do share a desire to bring down western civilization.
By their own stated beliefs, this commodity's price will be orders of magnitude higher in the future. Thus, if their beliefs are correct, they can make a killing. Scratch that: they're guaranteed to make a killing.
The added benefit is that if people would just do this - put their money where their mouth is - would drive up the price of oil today, reducing consumption (a little), and staving off the disaster (a little) that these people claim to believe is coming. Further, the higher price of oil today would bring energy alternatives closer to the point of being economical. The price of oil would be incorporating this idea that some disastrous "peak oil" is coming, and this price signal would tell the market to develop alternatives - which it would. I mean heck, that's how the market is supposed to work!
So there's really no excuse for these people to be spending so much effort jibber-jabbering about "peak oil" if they are not investing in oil.
If they believe what they are saying, that is.
Not familiar with the term, but I remember the oil hype of the late 70s, early 80s. Lots of $ flushed down the oil drain in those days.
Try the 1950’s at least.
Yes, I'd never put that together. I thank you for that, I'm sure I'll use that as a comeback one day.
But there's still the cows and methane to worry about.
Yes, what I was thinking of when I alluded to the projections of the late 70s, early 80s, drilling partnerships and all.
Very key phrase even today. The advances in many areas related to oil exploration and production continue to make changes in the economic recovery of known oil fields. We have already produced more from Prudhoe Bay than was initially believed to be recoverable.
The theory ignores capitalism and is therefore invalid. As oil prices climb the rate of oil exploration will go up, along with the money to pay for it. And also as prices go up, alternatives will become cost effective, driving consumption down.
Must have been thought up by a marxist.
“Peak Oil” is a term used by people whose economic framework is socialism, not capitalism.
$90 WTI by the end of the month. Bet ?
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