Skip to comments.Is “peak oil” the new end-of-the-world?
Posted on 10/16/2007 6:11:57 PM PDT by SJackson
Peak oil is becoming the latest doomsday buzzword. What is it? Its a well-thought-out theory that predicts that the rate at which we find and recover oil is soon going to fall behind the rate at which we consume it. The point at which that happens is the peak. Prior to this peak, prices will have been relatively stable and reasonable, and the economies of the world have grown because the supply of energy outpaced the demand. But there is coming a time, and some say its here now, when the worlds oil fields cannot produce as fast as we consume. Demand will exceed supply, oil prices are going to skyrocket, and the worlds economies are going to begin to fail as the oil fields themselves fail.
Oil today is important to civilization. We use it to produce electric power and to make gasoline, heating oil, fertilizer, chemicals, plastics, and more. Eighty-four percent goes to power and fuel, and only 16% to other things. What happens if we run out? Tidy little doomsday scenarios have been woven and show how transportation will stop running, food production will drop because of less fertilizer and pesticides, currency markets will fail, prices of everything will take off, and this will mean both the end of civilization as we know it and an irreversible decline in the human condition. Its all very neat, but that doesnt mean its accurate.
(Excerpt) Read more at backwoodshome.com ...
Haven’t posted much from here since they required excerpting, but he’s right, the world isn’t about to end.
We were told “peak oil” was in the 70’s under carter and the coming ice age. If we listened to all the doomsday’ers, the world would have ended in 06 as in 0006.
I don’t know, but I will tell you this: A lot of liberals have drank the “peak oil” Kool-Aid.
Discovering who makes up the group of adherents is often as interesting as the actual topic. In the case of peak oil, more-so.
I have a friend who is currently pretty close to intolerable right now because of this stuff.
International Energy Outlook 2007
Chapter 3 - Petroleum and Other Liquids Fuels
Energy Information Administration
GW ecodoomsters and peak oil scaremongers do share a desire to bring down western civilization.
By their own stated beliefs, this commodity's price will be orders of magnitude higher in the future. Thus, if their beliefs are correct, they can make a killing. Scratch that: they're guaranteed to make a killing.
The added benefit is that if people would just do this - put their money where their mouth is - would drive up the price of oil today, reducing consumption (a little), and staving off the disaster (a little) that these people claim to believe is coming. Further, the higher price of oil today would bring energy alternatives closer to the point of being economical. The price of oil would be incorporating this idea that some disastrous "peak oil" is coming, and this price signal would tell the market to develop alternatives - which it would. I mean heck, that's how the market is supposed to work!
So there's really no excuse for these people to be spending so much effort jibber-jabbering about "peak oil" if they are not investing in oil.
If they believe what they are saying, that is.
Not familiar with the term, but I remember the oil hype of the late 70s, early 80s. Lots of $ flushed down the oil drain in those days.
Try the 1950’s at least.
Yes, I'd never put that together. I thank you for that, I'm sure I'll use that as a comeback one day.
But there's still the cows and methane to worry about.
Yes, what I was thinking of when I alluded to the projections of the late 70s, early 80s, drilling partnerships and all.
Very key phrase even today. The advances in many areas related to oil exploration and production continue to make changes in the economic recovery of known oil fields. We have already produced more from Prudhoe Bay than was initially believed to be recoverable.
The theory ignores capitalism and is therefore invalid. As oil prices climb the rate of oil exploration will go up, along with the money to pay for it. And also as prices go up, alternatives will become cost effective, driving consumption down.
Must have been thought up by a marxist.
“Peak Oil” is a term used by people whose economic framework is socialism, not capitalism.
$90 WTI by the end of the month. Bet ?
Right now, we’re playing nice because we’re comfortable (perhaps slipping into complacency).
No doubt there’s plenty of oil left under California. Every petroleum geologist I’ve ever talked to believes this. A little more difficult to get out, perhaps under the beach at Malibu... Maybe that’s part of the problem.
How did we ever handle “peak” buggy whips, or “peak” elevator operators? Oh, that’s right, we moved on to something else.
The theory ignores capitalism and is therefore invalid.......
You stole my thunder and I am grateful (pun intended).
I'm a big believer in the "technological fix" theory. Rising energy prices will result in more energy availability. "Marginal" oil sources will be tapped (and economic/political realities will enable this), and alternative energy sources will come on-stream. The first oil wells in Pennsylvania were drilled before the internal combustion engine was developed. One of the biggest uses of Pennsylvania crude was for lighting, supplanting whale oil. But at about the same time (give or take a decade) the internal combustion engine came into widespread use, so too did electric lighting. So oil shifted to a different use.
Such a shift will happen again.
I see expensive energy followed by shortages for this country. The mandates for renewables will drive industrial energy rates very high. Despite commercial interest in nuclear power, the left will strangle development with legislation and litigation. To control prices, price controls will be used leading to shortages.
mlyons, see post #15... I believe you are both talking about the same resource.
I will say most posters are full of crap. Keep your eye on the price of crude. This will tell you what the truth is. My bet is oil goes higher. I’m not happy making such a bet but I put my money where my mouth is ———>>>
What did the Russians do to Royal Dutch Shell at Sakhalin Island? I’ll bet you don’t know off the top of your head
That’s how the oil game is really played by anyone with an IQ
I do not know. My guess is that they stole the property of Royal Dutch Shell. Nationalization is theft of private property. I am surprised that private investors are in the global energy business with rampant nationalization. There must be some money to be made before nationalization.
Cartels (OPEC, Russia, Venezuela) are trying to control energy supplies. I am surprised that energy supplies do not fall under trade agreements. Perhaps it is just a waste of time to use trade agreements to stop energy cartels.
The idiots that talk about “blood for oil” should focus their attention on the energy cartels. The cartels are trying to extort the consuming world. We are not part of any energy cartel. We just want a fair market for energy supplies.
Peak oil varies from one country to another, doesn’t it? Australia only recently experienced peak and, hence, is more energy independent than the U.S., which passed peak longer ago.
I don’t believe “the left” is the only hindrance to exploitation, but some of our resources are too difficult to extract and process.
Our true deficit, as I understand, is in refineries...we need more.
“But there’s still the cows and methane to worry about.”
A carbon tax meter pluged into every cows backside will take care of that.
In the meantime start using the few hundred years of oil sitting under California.
Aren’t they spending a billion plus dollars there on new drilling? Drilling station in the north, then a couple hundred mile line pipe for the LNG port in the south.
I saw it on Megastructures or Build it Big.
What did the Russians do to Royal Dutch Shell at Sakhalin Island?
100% correct sir. I'm impressed. That's how the real game is played in real time by real players. Your "free markets" are a hallucination compared to how the Russians and Chinese play the oil/energy game. Thugs know how to play this game and laugh themselves to sleep each night at those who depend on free markets for energy
What happened is that for years Shell did the hard work and tech while the Russians swilled vodka. Once Sakhalin panned out the Russians forced Royal Dutch Shell to lower its participation from 55% to 27%. Gazprom (Putin's mafia friends) grabbed what Shell was forced to surrender
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/02/05/8399125/index.htm The news was stunning, even if rumors had been flying: Shell (Charts) was halving its ownership in the $22 billion project, cutting its stake from 55% to 27.5%,
That was the best line for me too!!!
You were clever enough to read my link so you now have a better education about what BS free markets are and how the real players grab whatever they can. Real players in oil/energy that is
Some libertarians and capitalists have bought into peak oil theory, it isn’t just socialists.
It looks like a good theory if you stare narrowly at mexico, or maybe saudi arabia, but falls apart when you look more broadly.
I don’t buy into peak oil theory at all, though mexico is an an interesting localized question.
Natural gas however is a very different story. Supplies really aren’t increasing much at all, despite big investments to try to make it happen. A lot of infrastructure being build to ship existing supply, but not much new supply. Big problem for those that depend too heavily on natural gas to make electricity.
We’re going to die! It’s the end! We’re all going to die!
Actually, that’s all true. The other truth is that the world will continue without us just fine.
Oil’s gone up, but my gas price has gone down. I guess it will go back up eventually. With the dollar down oil was going up, with the Democrats trying to start a war between Turkey and Iraq the price went up.
I read a liberal Virginia blogger tonight who was trying to argue that MARKETS run the oil prices. Of course he’s saying that, now that the democrats are in charge and the oil prices are skyrocketing.
But while it was clearly true that it wasn’t Bush’s fault the oil prices were going up, it is clearly partly the Democrat’s fault, as they are stirring up unrest in the middle east, are blocking new oil drilling.
Hemp is the answer. It either solves all of this mess, or dulls the pain of dealing with it. It is hard to logic with that argument.
Actually, it is time for whale oil again, as we have reached peak with whales. F’n things are everywhere these days, some don’t even have jobs.
I think we’ll see more gas on the market because more of it is being captured and brought to market. The battle is over the big off-shore unloading facilities for LNG ships along the US coast.
Agreed. I’ll also add that it probably isn’t helping much that the U.S. dollar is around its lowest level of value in our history.
not to sound like a dick here but if you do bussiness in Russia you deserve what you get. Frankly I don’t care how much oil they have there, I still wouldn’t touch it with a nine foot pole. Everything In russia ends up nationalized, its just a matter of how much you can squeak out before it happens.
If I ever do get into the oil bussiness in one of those commie countries one the of the things I’ll do is plant explosives at key points and set them off the moment troops land in my property. Send them right back to square one.
your take is 100% legit
I believe Royal Dutch Shell has been involved in Sakhalin Island oil/energy for 15+ years. They got in before that savage Putin ruled Russia
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