Skip to comments.Republicans Running Uphill (With More House Seats to Defend, Funding Looms Large)
Posted on 10/19/2007 5:19:35 AM PDT by shrinkermd
The bad news keeps getting worse for the Republicans.
They have twice as many seats to defend as Democrats next year in the narrowly divided Senate. The Democratic presidential candidates are raising twice as much money as the Republicans. And now it looks like the party will even have trouble holding its ground in the House, which had been considered its best shot.
A dozen House Republicans have announced they won't stand for re-election next year, a wave of retirements that could grow and leave the party with fewer seats next year and perhaps well beyond. Even veterans in safe Republican seats are heading for the exits, including former Speaker Dennis Hastert. This summer he announced he would be leaving Congress at the end of this term, but yesterday aides said he would step down late this year or early next year.
The Republican congressional campaign committee is in debt, while the Democrats' committee said Wednesday it has raised $28 million. "Right now we're in a race with ankle weights," Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole, the committee's chairman, said this week.
Without campaign funds to spread around, the party is having trouble recruiting candidates. Meanwhile, the Iraq war has energized the liberal Democratic base and angered independents, who deserted the Republican Party in 2006 and seem unlikely to return.
Party operatives still speak confidently about their electoral chances, noting there is a large class of freshman Democrats elected on slim majorities in 2006 and a bigger group of Democrats representing Republican-leaning districts. Meanwhile, they predict the presidential election will boost Republican turnout, and Republicans will try to force Democrats into casting unpopular votes as the election draws nearer.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
“Party operatives still speak confidently about their electoral chances, noting there is a large class of freshman Democrats elected on slim majorities in 2006 and a bigger group of Democrats representing Republican-leaning districts. Meanwhile, they predict the presidential election will boost Republican turnout, and Republicans will try to force Democrats into casting unpopular votes as the election draws nearer”.
Whistling past the graveyard.
Following the ‘Pubs winnning in 2000 and ‘02, Dems started leaving their offices as well. No surprise here. Admittedly a cynical view, but corupt money goes to those in power (now the Dems), and so the minority is left scrambling for the crumbs.
Now that's a stretch. You obviously weren't around on 9/11.
They won’t do that because it is to obvious that it is a popular response that will get them votes. They also do not want to offend people who won’t vote for them anyway. Sit there and don’t do anything present no agenda do not stand for anything and just let the country stagnate for 8 years with no plan to make it a better country, what do you expect? It is just too easy to just sit there and not do anything.
What they do not understand is that a post war country is a different country and they have to change to respond to it. Look a tthe SR Bush following the same course his son is doing. After a war people want an activist government be it anticommunist, internationalist, prohibitionist, anti machine reform or what ever. You have to do something and our boys do not understand that. If you can’t understand that and refuse to do something than the other side will get the opportunity.
The truth is, there seems to be nobody in the party to create the excitement of a new contract, at least not yet. Pelosi said she would ‘drain the swamp;’ a total lie, but the GOP needs to do some housecleaning big time. 2008 is not a wash, we will have solid regions in the country, but there is no doubt the Dems have a huge advantage in momentum.
Look at the 1964 presidential map. I think the 2008 map will be close but with a few exceptions.
I think the GOP will take LA-SC, as did Goldwater. If Thompson is the nominee, I look for TN and TX to go Republican too, and they were LBJ states. If other than Thompson, I think TN and TX will vote for HRC.
I also think Goldwater’s AZ is a lock this time for HRC, but a Republican in 2008 MIGHT win WY or ID to compensate, but probably not both. I think the West will in the end fall behind HRC because there is so much disgust with GWB.
We are looking at a Titanic-led GOP.
In OH, we are losing THREE incumbents---the best of which is Dave Hobson (Springfield) who was solid. Deb Pryce isn't running, and Ralph Regula (I think Dist. 17) was in a "red" district, but now leaves that seat open for challenge.
You need candidates, and I haven't seen the recruiting going on, or the "big names" stepping forward to run for these seats. It is early, however.
Also, word is Kay Bailey Hutchinson in TX is retiring---she was a firm anti-illegals vote. Not good.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Historically, there are three pre-election snapshots that tell what is likely to be the result: nine, four, and two months before the election. February will be the first good window.
Dear associates in the 40B wars.
Based on the level of your interest and support, plus circumstances like the IG's audit results, conditions were such that this appeared to be the opportune time to confront the failed 40B law. Events over the past few weeks have shaken my confidence in what I thought was a willing and able membership effort to gather the required 67,000 signatures required.
Our numbers were such that if each member of our member organizations were able to solicit 100 signatures the goal was more than attainable. Evidently I underestimated the level of commitment of all too many of the people that I have talked and corresponded with over the past four years. With six weeks remaining to collect the required signatures, I have seen some groups producing a mighty effort while others that I thought were committed to confronting this failed law appear to have faded into the "let George do it" mode.
I cannot speak to each member individually but in contacting some that I thought we had missed communicating with I am getting replies like "I'd like to do more but I'm uncomfortable soliciting signatures" or "we plan on doing more before the deadline" or "I asked so and so to pick up the ball for me" etc.,etc.
Folks, this can't be a stroll around the neighborhood and fill out one petition form. We need those 100 signatures per member. It means some hours in front of a Post Office, a shopping mall a youth sports event etc. etc. If that is beyond your willingness then another option remains and that is the hiring of professional collectors that guarantee viable signatures. That requires a considerable amount of money at the current rat of about $1.50 per signature.
You have a simple choice over the next two weeks, increase your collection activity or donate the dollars needed to succeed! We have some commitment for a significant donation for the purchase option but it will not be enough to overcome the low volumes that are appearing. Your choice is simple, collect or remit. We have to hire a collection agent no later than November 1st. If the numbers don't balance, that is enough signatures plus enough donations, we won't extend the effort!
I am currently packing about four boxes of data, records and material that I have accumulated over the past four years. I either retain it for the 2008 ballot war or place it out for the Town recycle program. That decision occurs about November 1st. That's about the time that we'll know that we have enough signature or donations to ensure our success.
Looking forward to a successful commitment or my return to the retired life. The ball is in your court.
NEVER in any of these stories does the ratmedia ever mention the House approval rating of 11% unless it is to insult our intelligence and say that it will only hurt Republicans. How about this headline you will never see:
“With an 11% approval rating and more seats to defend, House Democrats in trouble”
Here’s some government new math for the ratmedia to work out: What happens when you add 11% plus 45%?
Answer: You get a toxic mix of the worst approval ratings for a Congress in history, almost half of all voters saying they would NEVER vote for the beast and a surprising Election Night.
***House approval rating of 11%***
In the race to suceed Denny Hastert, the Republican candidates are blasting Congress for ignoring Midwest Values. Their MO is to run as outsiders - run against Congress and the White House.
“Mel is gone.”
IF MEL IS GONE WE SHOULD ALL SEND A NOTE OF THANKS AND A DONATION TO THE RNC!
“I see the election as an opportunity to purge the GOP of both liberal and corrupt deadwood that is strangling it. “
... and strangle America instead with a liberal Democrat majority?!?!?
We lost more than ‘deadwood’ in 2006 - good men like Allen and Santorum lost.
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