Posted on 10/27/2007 7:12:41 PM PDT by nwctwx
16L.NONAME
WHXX01 KWBC 280036 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0036 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162007) 20071028 0000 UTC
ping
I was just thinking yesterday that it’s a good thing the waters were calm since it was still warm out.
Bah.
And, only five days left in hurricane season.
C’mon! I dare ya. I double-dog dare ya.
Five days, and the month of November...
“And, only five days left in hurricane season.”
It this becomes a hurricane does it turn into a pumpkin at the end of the fifth day?
Could possibly even reach major hurricane status per the models.
bttt
Please send it straight to North Georgia and the Lake Lanier / Chattahoochie River watershed. We could use about 6”, to start.
I talked to my sister in Ft. Myers last week. She said it wasn’t time to stop praying yet.
Well, I’d been thinking we were done for the year. We’ve been catching up on rain in north central Florida for the last few months, but we could still use a tropical storm to kill the accumulated deficit!
I thought we were done for the year!
Bull!! It’s to cold.
Beat you by about 90 seconds.
Hope the rain does hit the Southland though, we don't really need anymore.
It isn’t so much the air temperature. It’s the water.
I am pretty sure that the water is a lot warmer than it was on December 30, 2005 when Tropical Storm Zeta formed (6th letter of the Greek alphabet, 27th named storm of the year). It lasted till January 6th, 2006.
Hmmm..waiting to hear what the local weather guy says now on 11 o’clock news..
"....Oh, that's because of Global warming, too!"
I hope it stays a tropical depression right up the east coast of FL, then inland and up over SC and NC. I know GA could use it too, but if I’m in control of the weather machine it’s coming to the Carolinas.
Hopefully, there will be plenty of rain to share for FL, GA, SC, and NC.
That’s weird, the article shows it was the 27th, the map shows it to be the 28th. Either way, it didn’t do anything.
oops bad link I guess. Oh well.
Scroll back up the 19, that’s where the warmth is!
The past couple of days we’ve had so much rain here in our part of S. FL that my back yard is a mudpit. I was just wondering today if there was something I could pour on it (sand?) so it wouldn’t be such a bog!
susie
Spring breakers (too long a wait, I guess)
I don’t trust projections made in the first hour that show a 90 degree turn after 3 days in a straight line.
Boggy back yard - grow some rice and cranberries - throw in a few male & female crawfish for good measure.
I guess they are pretty sure about the turn. I suppose a front is expected in Cuba on Tuesday?
“DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION”
Perhaps they should use this disclaimer too?
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FOR OUR GLOBAL WARMING PREDICTIONS.
Welcome, enjoy the ride.
I’m still holding out that we will not get to “O” this year.
Oh, what a scary thought!
susie
Oh, what a scary thought!
susie
Unfortunately the dogs would eat them all. And then they would track in black mud, cranberry juice and crawfish shells. *sigh*
susie
As much as I hate to see the destruction and upsets to people’s lives due to a hurricane I hope this hits just west of Mobile cause ALL of Alabama desperately needs rain! I’m in northern Alabama and we have been in a drought situation here for several years now.
We picked up 4” from this last three day rain event here on I-95 in NC. That only makes us 16” down for the year.
More of a trough, I think. It's more or less here already, it's supposed to linger until then.
Hi, LCS.
| Tropical Storm Public Advisory |
...Depression on the verge of becoming a tropical storm... ...Significant rainfall and flooding potential for portions of the Caribbean...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba in the provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for Jamaica. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 72.5 west or about 220 miles...355 km...southwest of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic and about 145 miles...235 km...south of Port au Prince Haiti.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. Even though the center of the depression could pass south of Hispaniola...heavy rains to the north and east of the center will pass over the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Above normal tides are likely within the warning area.
The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over Hispaniola...southeastern Cuba...and Jamaica...with possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. Additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...16.5 N...72.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$ Forecaster Knabb
Doesn’t look like anyone will get any rain except Cuba.
It’s a pretty large system. Still holding out hope for rain here, although we are out of the cone for now in Tampa Bay.
It rained for about 36 hours straight down here due to that system. Hope the SE US gets some of it.
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