Polls show Romney leading in South Carolina

American Research Group ^ | 10/30/07 | American Research Group, Inc.

[Spiff]

Romney	29%
Giuliani	23%
McCain	13%
Thompson	10%
Huckabee	5%

	American Research Group, Inc.

South Carolina

Presidential Primary Preference:

 

South Carolina
Likely Republican Primary Voters	Dec 06	Feb 07	Apr 07	May 07	Jun 07	Jul 07	Aug 07	Sep 07	Oct 07
Brownback	-	-	1%	1%	1%	-	2%	1%	ni
Gilmore	-	1%	1%	1%	1%	ni	ni	ni	ni
Gingrich	15%	10%	6%	6%	6%	7%	6%	7%	ni
Giuliani	28%	29%	23%	23%	22%	28%	26%	23%	23%
Hagel	-	-	1%	-	-	ni	ni	ni	ni
Huckabee	1%	1%	2%	1%	3%	3%	9%	1%	5%
Hunter	-	1%	-	1%	2%	1%	-	1%	2%
Keyes	ni	ni	ni	ni	ni	ni	ni	-	1%
McCain	35%	35%	36%	32%	23%	10%	12%	15%	13%
Pataki	-	-	-	-	-	ni	ni	ni	ni
Paul	ni	-	-	-	-	3%	2%	2%	4%
Romney	5%	5%	6%	10%	8%	7%	9%	26%	29%
Tancredo	ni	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%
F Thompson	ni	ni	10%	13%	19%	27%	21%	10%	10%
T Thompson	-	-	1%	1%	-	-	ni	ni	ni
Undecided	16%	18%	12%	11%	14%	13%	12%	13%	12%

 

Preference by party:

 

South Carolina
Likely Republican Primary Voters	Republicans (85%)	Independents (15%)
Giuliani	24%	14%
Huckabee	5%	5%
Hunter	2%	-
Keyes	1%	-
McCain	11%	23%
Paul	4%	1%
Romney	30%	24%
Tancredo	1%	-
Thompson	9%	18%
Undecided	13%	15%

 

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About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (512 Republicans and 88 independent voters).

Sample Dates: October 26-29, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

[Spiff]

Results from an American Research Group (ARG) presidential preference poll conducted 10/26-10/29 show Mitt Romney expanding his lead in South Carolina. A September poll by ARG showing Romney taking the lead surprised many. This poll confirms Romney's high level of support in South Carolina and backs up a Romney internal poll conducted by Jan R. van Lohuizen of Voter/Consumer Research which also showed a significant level of support for Romney.

This is a chart I put together which tracks presidential preference polls in South Carolina since 12/23/06:

Poll numbers were obtained from RealClearPolitics' useful aggregation of poll results. Also included is the Voter/Consumer Research poll that was done on 10/02. This chart uses as 4-period moving average.

Here's one that I did that depicts only American Research Group's polling results:

[Spiff]

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •

[codercpc]

He is also within the margin of error with Fred in the Rasmussen (most accurate according to many here) in the national poll as of today.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

[JohnnyZ]

ARG is a joke of a polling outfit.

Their results are radically different from the other polling firms, and they have a very, very poor record of accuracy in predicting actual election results.

[DJtex]

Romney is running a very smart campaign. He doesn't want to peak too early, especially when voters aren't paying too much attention now.

The classic rule on the early primaries is driving Romney:

There are three tickets out of Iowa.

There are two tickets out of New Hampshire

Romney will almost certainly be number one or two in NH. If he follows that with a win in the South, as in Carolina, he will become a juggernaut.

He's not perfect, but not as identifiably liberal as Rudy. He has business and executive success behind him, and he is very good on his feet with a good speaking style and a command of the issues.

Also, of all the candidates--on both sides--he's the best looking, someone you wouldn't mind having in your living room for the next four years.

[LS]

ARG is radically different. But the fact is that Rudy leads in the RCP composite of most of the state polls; and Romney leads in the couple that Rudy doesn’t.

[Prokopton]

He is also within the margin of error with Fred in the Rasmussen (most accurate according to many here) in the national poll as of today.

He's also in the same place he was in July in the same poll, 14%.

Thats an awful lot of money to spend over 3 1/2 months without any movement at all in this national poll.

Maybe he's not campaigning hard enough. Are you sure he has the "fire in the belly"?

[Spiff]

Thanks for pinging me to the new info at Rasmussen.

I've added it to my tracking chart:

[org.whodat]

ARG is a joke of a polling outfit.

Their results are radically different from the other polling firms, and they have a very, very poor record of accuracy in predicting actual election results.

true, but you can depend on them to provide the results they are paid to provide. Want a poll, buy a poll.

[N3WBI3]

“Romney will almost certainly be number one or two in NH. If he follows that with a win in the South, as in Carolina, he will become a juggernaut.”

And I will become a third party voter...

[Rameumptom]

Intrade shows Romney gaining ground on Guliani at the National level. Intrade has been more successful than any poll at predicting elections.

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 39.8 40.0 40.0 120596 -1.3

2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 26.4 27.0 27.0 99289 0

2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 9.7 9.9 9.9 90246 -0.1

2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 6.9 7.2 7.0 149782 0

2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 6.8 7.0 7.0 70956 +0.4

2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 6.4 6.7 6.5 59497 -0.3

Romney blows away the competition in early states like NH and Iowa on Intrade. I wish they would start a line on SC.

REP.IOWA.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to Win M 66.0 70.3 68.3 239 0

REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to Win M 6.0 9.6 7.5 107 0

REP.IOWA.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to Win M 2.0 4.0 2.0 231 0

REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to Win M 15.0 19.8 19.8 140 +2.4

REP.IOWA.MCCAIN John McCain to Win M 1.5 3.9 2.7 13 0

i

[Spiff]

Intrade shows Romney gaining ground on Guliani at the National level. Intrade has been more successful than any poll at predicting elections.

Maybe I'll do a chart just tracking Intrade's national poll numbers to see how that looks.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

This guy is a phony as John Edwards. I can’t believe people in the Republican party are being fooled by him.

[Swordfished]

Romney: ‘Can you hear me now?’

[Plutarch]

This is an amazingly wide open race. Giuliani has the advantage, but he has lost the most support. McCain refuses to go away. Huckabee has managed to get support, but is in the first blush of his introductory honeymoon. Once we learn more about him, it is likely that his support will lag, especially as he has little appeal to conservatives. Things should be interesting in the next several months.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

bump

[codercpc]

I agree, and although I am a minority here, looking at individual state, and head to head polls I am beginning to think that it may actually be McCain that pulls it out.

He has a weird advantage of being toward the middle, yet in the past few weeks I believe that his state polls are getting closer, and if people in the GOP really want electability he seems the one that polls best consistently against the Beast.

Since I am not an electoral or delegate wonk, I could be way off, but look for him to either sink or swim in the next few months. This is not what I want, it is just what I think might happen.

[JCEccles]

ARG showed Romney dragging in the cellar in the first half of the year. Were they a great polling outfit then?

ARG is a bad outfit when they don't tell JohnnyZ what he wants to hear.

Truth is, Fred's been sliding and Romney's been climbing in South Carolina. You may dispute the numbers, but the trends are clear.

Southerner Fred must be mortified to be have to work his tail off to beat a Mormon in South Carolina.

[JCEccles]

On the contrary. Romney's quite obviously the real deal. He isn't getting these numbers by accident or smoke and mirrors. He's out-thinking, out-organizing, and just flat out-hustling the other candidates. Aren't those the qualities you want in a president?

This is real success born of real effort. Nothing phony about it. You might at least acknowledge Romney's skill, effort, and work-ethic even if you have no intention of supporting him. At least have that courtesy and good grace.

[JCEccles]

Let's keep this bumped.

If it does nothing more than spur Fred to get off his tired backside and show a little enthusiasm it will be worth it.

[JCEccles]

Bump.

Mitt's demonstrating extraordinary executive ability. These numbers are a testament to his work ethic and drive.

[jwalsh07]

McCain and Romney have appeal for independents, more so than Rudy which will come as a schock to Rudy's supporters.

I think McCain, would have walked away with the nomination except for his alliance with Kennedy and Bush on illegals despite the fact that most of us here would not support him.

McCain also does better in head to head matchups than any other Republican in key state polls because he has that appeal to independents. Amazing but true.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

Mitt Romney truly needs to be attacked more often for his “Romneycare mandatory health care plan” in Massachusetts! Forcing people onto any government run health care plan is unconstitutional to begin with whether people like it or not, and most people in the U.S. don’t want to be forced onto any government run health care plan! This issue alone can destroy Mitt Romney.

[WestSylvanian]

I agree with you about Romney’s work ethic. That kind of determination and energy will be necessary to beat Hillary. I’ve read that Romney’s typical campaign day begins with an appearance at 7:00 a.m. and ends after 10:00 p.m. He’s putting in the time and making the effort; he’s not just relying on national name recognition and notoriety as a t.v. actor like other candidates I could name.

[CheyennePress]

>>>This guy is a phony as John Edwards. I can’t believe people in the Republican party are being fooled by him.<<<

Perhaps you have a bad eye for success. Romney is clearly the candidate with the best track record. He’s also clearly the candidate who has walked the walk he talks himself.

Frankly, I think it’s high time we had someone with a venture capitalist mentality running things in DC. There’s a lot of superfluous garbage floating around up there gunking up the system.

[JCEccles]

Bump.

Romney is the hardest-working, best organized candidate running. That kind of drive and effort can't be faked.

Fred apparently just wants the presidency handed to him. He books far, far fewer speaking engagements than Romney, gives very short speeches, and then ducks out as soon as he's done so he won't have to answer questions.

By their fruits ye shall know them.

[tioga]

I hope you are right.

[Pistolshot]

Spiff....you might want to reverse your graph so the LATEST data are on the right instead of the left. As it should look on a proper spreadsheet.

[Spiff]

Spiff....you might want to reverse your graph so the LATEST data are on the right instead of the left. As it should look on a proper spreadsheet.

Huh?! Um...the latest data on the graph IS on the right. Just like a proper spreadsheet and graph should look. Acute profound dyslexia? You might want to have that checked.

[TheLion]

Get your facts straight....it was not government run health care. It was done by private insurance. If it is so bad, why are 30 states looking at some version of the idea?

[TheLion]

Bttt!

[mission9]

Seen it myself, up close in person. Mitt is the real deal, and he is swimming upstream against a withering bigotry.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

All of these states are jumping the gun on health care plans for their own states when they haven’t even seen all of pluses and all of the problems which will be occurring with Massachusetts health plan! One year of Romneycare hasn’t even occurred yet! It’s extremely important that all health care reforms are done right and to the best of human abilities.

[CheyennePress]

>>>Forcing people onto any government run health care plan is unconstitutional to begin with whether people like it or not, and most people in the U.S. don’t want to be forced onto any government run health care plan! <<<

Only Mass isn’t running the healthcare there. Private industry is. And you’re not forced to buy health insurance there—just prove you have enough on hand to pay your bills if you don’t want insurance and put it into an account the state can access to pay the hospital if you default on your bills.

[TheLion]

Romney has said it isn’t perfect and won’t fit all states. The main point is that the premiums that the state helps out the poor is way cheaper than covering their costs otherwise. It will be interesting how it plays out.