Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Is Hillary vs. Rudy Inevitable? [latest Dick Morris column]
NewsMax.com ^ | 31 Oct 07 | Dick Morris and Eileen McGann

Posted on 10/31/2007 10:10:27 AM PDT by seanmerc

What if the current polls in Iowa are the final result?

What if Romney wins in Iowa and then comes in first again in New Hampshire? What if Giuliani stumbles badly in Iowa and finishes fourth? What if Huckabee surges and finishes second in Iowa? What if Fred Thompson makes an unimpressive third-place finish there?

And, on the Democratic side, what if Hillary only narrowly beats Obama in the first caucus state?

With two months to go before the Iowa caucus, everything can change, and probably will, but it is worth speculating on what the impact will be if things don’t change much from now until then.

On the Republican side, a Romney victory in Iowa would virtually guarantee a win in New Hampshire. The two states, in media terms, are practically one. Two-thirds of New Hampshire lives in the southern part of the state that watches Boston television every night. Since Romney served as governor in Massachusetts, he will probably win New Hampshire anyway. A win in Iowa would make it a fait accompli.

Two victories would make Romney the front-runner for the Republican nomination. Coupled with a Giuliani stumble in Iowa, it could totally change the dynamic of the Republican primary. Here’s what might happen:

Rudy could come to be seen as too antagonistic to the Christian right, and moderates might once again turn to McCain as the less inflammatory option, sidetracking the former New York mayor.

Huckabee, coming in a strong second, could take off and become the poor man’s Romney, taking advantage of his greater consistency on social issues, his Christian (read: non-Mormon) beliefs, and his support of the Fair Tax as an alternative to the IRS.

Republicans would likely panic about the idea of a Mormon candidate and worry about his prospects, making Huckabee and either Rudy or McCain viable as alternatives.

Thompson will be forced out, having lost his position as the socially conservative answer to Rudy.

Edwards, who had been leading in Iowa until recently, would probably have to leave the race. That would coalesce the entire ABH vote (Anybody But Hillary) around Obama, giving him a leg up in the national race.

Hillary’s vulnerability, newly revealed in the Iowa vote, could create a sense that she might not be electable given her baggage and lead Democratic voters to look seriously at Obama. The result could be a real slugfest between the two candidates, making a mockery of the idea that her nomination is inevitable.

And the outcome for Democrats?

Hillary probably still wins.

The history of Democratic primaries has always been that challengers emerge and run stronger than anyone believed they would but then fade and the front-runner prevails after all (see Bradley in 2000, Tsongas after New Hampshire and Brown after Connecticut in 1992, Gore after the Southern primaries in 1988, Hart in 1984 and Kennedy in 1980).

And among the Republicans?

Who knows?

The race would be thrown into chaos. Anyone could win.

Romney would have the momentum, but doubts about his ability to win as a Mormon would make his lead unstable. Huckabee would be gaining, but he may not be well enough known to make it. Giuliani could still recover, given his strong national standing, but would be hobbled. And McCain would still have his immigration position hanging over his head, but as Rudy falters, he might pick up the slack.

Then again, Hillary could open up a large lead in Iowa as her juggernaut gets going. And Rudy could, at least, finish a strong second to Romney in Iowa, and perhaps beat him, making it a Giuliani-Romney runoff in the main primaries, which Rudy probably wins. Then the general election match-up would be Hillary vs. Rudy, as we have all anticipated.

But what if?


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Arkansas; US: New York
KEYWORDS: dick; dickmorris; dickythetoe; duncanhunter; elections; fredthompson; giuliani; hildebeast; hillary; hillaryclinton; huckabee; morris; mrsbillclinton; romney; rudy; rudygiuliani; rudytherino; toesucker

1 posted on 10/31/2007 10:10:28 AM PDT by seanmerc
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Not only is Rudy’s nomination NOT inevitable, it’s not even possible.


2 posted on 10/31/2007 10:18:25 AM PDT by ElkGroveDan (Take the wheel, Fred.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #3 Removed by Moderator

Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: seanmerc

Dick is mistaken... he said it would be hildebeast and Rice... silly Dick!

LLS


5 posted on 10/31/2007 10:21:50 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Support America, Kill terrorists, Destroy dims!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LibLieSlayer

I guess he’s not on his toes the way he used to be.........;^}


6 posted on 10/31/2007 10:27:15 AM PDT by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we have consensus.......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: ElkGroveDan

No, really, tell us what you think!


7 posted on 10/31/2007 10:29:19 AM PDT by Still Thinking (Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

Arr, arr, arr!


8 posted on 10/31/2007 10:29:49 AM PDT by Still Thinking (Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

:-)

LLS


9 posted on 10/31/2007 10:41:26 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Support America, Kill terrorists, Destroy dims!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: ElkGroveDan
It’s amazing that people here are more fixated on Rudy than on HRC.
10 posted on 10/31/2007 10:45:37 AM PDT by Perdogg (Elections have consequences.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Hillary is no shoo in. Many in her party are angry with her concerning the so called “centrist” stance she appearing to take regarding the war in Iraq.


11 posted on 10/31/2007 11:03:17 AM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Looks like Dick Morris couldn’t get the job at the Huckabee campaign, so now he’s starting back at square 1. This is his way of attracting attention, in a way he’s interviewing for a campaign consultancy position.


12 posted on 10/31/2007 11:04:00 AM PDT by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
Not a single vote has been cast and Hillary is in? I read that her performance last night at the debate was bad. A couple more bad outings and she's got a real problem.

One can hope.

13 posted on 10/31/2007 11:04:39 AM PDT by Thebaddog (You can be a big dog or a small dog, but I am the bad dog)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
It’s amazing that people here are more fixated on Rudy than on HRC.

HRC is not presently seeking to take charge of the Republican Party. That is the question before us right now.

14 posted on 10/31/2007 11:05:12 AM PDT by ElkGroveDan (Take the wheel, Fred.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Jeez it’s still only 2007 and I’m already sick of hearing from Dick Morris.


15 posted on 10/31/2007 11:07:16 AM PDT by Argus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Argus

Dick is pimping for Rudy again.....like most of Fox.


16 posted on 10/31/2007 11:14:13 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Pray for, and support our troops(heroes) !! And vote out the RINO's!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

I wouldn’t waste my vote on either one.


17 posted on 10/31/2007 11:17:33 AM PDT by ex-snook ("Above all things, truth beareth away the victory.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Unless something drastic happens (e.g. Hunter makes a spike in the polls) I’m going to consider moving to Canada in ‘08. At least they’re moving to the right.

Amnesty is the one most important issue of the day and yet for the Republican frontrunners, and yet we have Rudy “Sanctuary City” Giuliani, John “I invented comprehensive immigration reform” McCain, Mitt “I’ll say anything to get elected” Romney, Fred “Pay no attention to the MSM behind that curtain” Thompson, and Mike “Border enforcement is racist” Huckabee. Give me a freaking break!


18 posted on 10/31/2007 11:17:58 AM PDT by jmyrlefuller (The Associated Press: The most dangerous news organization in America.[TM])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ex-snook

I concur, I would be left at home.


19 posted on 10/31/2007 11:26:08 AM PDT by Resolute Conservative
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

I guess he’s not on his toes the way he used to be.........;^}

Those weren’t HIS toes...


20 posted on 10/31/2007 11:34:27 AM PDT by hdstmf
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg
This is primary season. The immediate issue is selecting a desirable candidate to vote for later. We'll worry about _her_ in due time.
21 posted on 10/31/2007 11:36:54 AM PDT by ctdonath2 (The color blue tastes like the square root of 0?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg; ElkGroveDan
"It’s amazing that people here are more fixated on Rudy than on HRC."

The reason for that is that Rudy is just Hillary-Lite and will do far more damage to the Republican party than Hillary ever could.

Rudy is the only candidate guaranteed to hand Hillary the Presidency.
22 posted on 10/31/2007 11:38:42 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

That comment sucks a??; toes.


23 posted on 10/31/2007 11:39:13 AM PDT by kublia khan (Absolute war brings total victory)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Man50D

Demorats know she is only running as a centerist to win. She will govern as a socialist. That’s how Bill won. When he became pres she made him govern that way.


24 posted on 10/31/2007 11:39:19 AM PDT by hdstmf
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Again, we’ll have to choose between the lesser of two evils.


25 posted on 10/31/2007 11:39:41 AM PDT by Sig Sauer P220
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Mark my word, it’s going to be Hillary and Romney. At this point, the Mormon issue is a non-issue for most Americans, Christians included.


26 posted on 10/31/2007 11:45:30 AM PDT by SHEENA26
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

No. I do not believe Rudy will be nominated.


27 posted on 10/31/2007 11:52:38 AM PDT by 3niner (War is one game where the home team always loses.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Man50D
They don't give a darn. They want to win the WH back and she's their best chance. She could steal money from dying babies, commit to sending more troops to Iraq, and say she's putting phosphates back into laundry detergent and she wouldn't lose one vote.

Democrats are "control" freaks and sheeple. They just want to be "winners" and they will walk in lock-step behind anybody they think will "win". If Hitler came back and they thought he would win, Adolph would be the nominee. Like her, the only scrupples they have they stole from someone else. She's the perfect candidate for them.

28 posted on 10/31/2007 11:52:58 AM PDT by MHT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc
No. What is inevitable is that Dick Morris MUST use the name of Hillary Clinton in every single communication he makes.

She is his bread and butter. He’s hopeless.

29 posted on 10/31/2007 11:54:09 AM PDT by Preachin' (Enoch's testimony was that he pleased God: Why are we still here?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Giuliani just needs to win California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Florida and he’ll pretty much have the nomination wrapped up. And my understanding is that he’s leading in all those states by quite a bit.


30 posted on 10/31/2007 12:00:20 PM PDT by Our man in washington
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ElkGroveDan
HRC is not presently seeking to take charge of the Republican Party. That is the question before us right now.

Big bump! The Republican Party will no longer be recognizable if Rudy wins the election.

31 posted on 10/31/2007 12:01:05 PM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc
Romney would have the momentum, but doubts about his ability to win as a Mormon would make his lead unstable.

The only such doubts I've heard are those raised by folks like Morris. I have doubts about Romney, but it has nothing to do with his being a Mormon.

32 posted on 10/31/2007 12:02:30 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Disastrous social experimentation is the opiate of elitist snobs.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MHT
Democrats are "control" freaks and sheeple. They just want to be "winners" and they will walk in lock-step behind anybody they think will "win". If Hitler came back and they thought he would win, Adolph would be the nominee.

That sounds like the Rudy ("control freak") and his supporters ("just win, baby!").

33 posted on 10/31/2007 12:04:16 PM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Liz; indylindy; stephenjohnbanker; Canticle_of_Deborah; TommyDale; Spiff; dirtboy
Republicans would likely panic about the idea of a Mormon candidate and worry about his prospects, making Huckabee and either Rudy or McCain viable as alternatives.

What kind of drugs does Morris take?

34 posted on 10/31/2007 12:08:02 PM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Morris apparently had a headache this morning and couldn’t think of anything to write.


35 posted on 10/31/2007 12:09:47 PM PDT by arthurus (Better to fight them over THERE than over HERE)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: calcowgirl

Morris is calculating his own prospects.

He will not get a job with a Pres Romney-—so he discounts Mitt’s chances.

That makes Mitt even more attractive to conservatives.


36 posted on 10/31/2007 12:15:37 PM PDT by Liz (Rooty's not getting my guns or the name of my hairdresser.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

What is his beef with Fred Thompson? He has been on his case even before his candidacy was announced. Fred must be too conservative for him. I’m a Fredhead, but I’d like to see Fred get it if for no other reason but to make Morris angry. It will be interesting to see how he reacts if it’s a Thompson-Hillary race.


37 posted on 10/31/2007 12:26:52 PM PDT by murron
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc

Morris is good when parsing or skewering the Clintons. His record on predictions hovers around -250%, however.


38 posted on 10/31/2007 12:52:20 PM PDT by DustyMoment (FloriDUH - proud inventors of pregnant/hanging chads and judicide!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AndyTheBear
I have doubts about Romney, but it has nothing to do with his being a Mormon.

My doubts regarding Romney have to do with his propensity to look to bigger government in things like health care and mandates on employers regarding health insurance. Nothing to do with his being Mormon ... except as I learn more about Mormonism, I see Big Church. A guy who was born and raised on Big Church is certainly going to have an affinity for Big Government. So in that regard, I guess I have to say that indirectly, my objections to him do have to do with his being Mormon.

39 posted on 10/31/2007 12:59:17 PM PDT by Finny (There are many enemies in our work. One of them is envy. -- A British naval officer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: calcowgirl

Dick Morris is wishing and hoping for candidates he can pick apart during the campaign. He has no clue on what is likely to happen.


40 posted on 10/31/2007 1:08:29 PM PDT by TommyDale (Never forget the Republicans who voted for illegal immigrant amnesty in 2007!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Finny
I have to say that indirectly, my objections to him do have to do with his being Mormon.

I suspect there are some Mormons who happen to be against big government.

41 posted on 10/31/2007 1:29:32 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Disastrous social experimentation is the opiate of elitist snobs.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: Perdogg

That’s because they have put their faith in someone behind Rudy...LOL!


42 posted on 10/31/2007 1:32:16 PM PDT by antivenom (If you're not living on the edge, you're taking up too much damn space!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: seanmerc
Two victories would make Romney the front-runner for the Republican nomination. Coupled with a Giuliani stumble in Iowa, it could totally change the dynamic of the Republican primary.

I believe this will happen, but the "Huckabee Surge" Morris predicts will not follow. 90% of social conservatives will acquiesce and support Romney, while the 10% of die-hards get louder and more over-the-top in their criticism of him - provoking many media stories about how fractured the conservative coalition is.

43 posted on 10/31/2007 1:42:45 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves ("Wise men don't need to debate; men who need to debate are not wise." -- Tao Te Ching)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 3niner

-—”No. I do not believe Rudy will be nominated”-—

I don’t know. He might lose Iowa to Hillary, and Illinois to Obama, but there’s no reason he couldn’t take NY, NH, and MI to start a domino effect and win the Democratic nod. A Giuliani/Clinton ticket would be tough for the GOP to beat.

He still might win this thing yet...


44 posted on 10/31/2007 2:44:31 PM PDT by TitansAFC ("My 80% enemy is not my 20% friend" -- Common Sense)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: AndyTheBear

Excellent point, and well-taken.


45 posted on 10/31/2007 4:53:03 PM PDT by Finny (There are many enemies in our work. One of them is envy. -- A British naval officer)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson