For the last few days I’ve been posting various intrade results side-by-side with polling data in the hopes of bringing attention that Hunter is slowly gaining traction and also that Thompson has been tanking on Intrade.
Petronski doesn’t like what I write, even though s(he) posted on the thread where Fred was leading on Intrade and also he says that Intrade is data. Petronski doesn’t like it so much that he calls me a liar, but he refuses to come onto this efficacy thread where it is properly discussed.
It is my contention that posting Intrade futures side-by-side with polling data as we go into the primaries is a very useful tool. Petronski calls it a lie. I will post one of the exchanges and a pointer to the thread so that readers can see for themselves. If it really is a lie, I am determined to correct it so that it reflects the truth.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts
To: devere
Well, it’s interesting to see someone else posting Intrade results.
It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts
Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts
The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0
37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
Still a lie.
38 posted on 11/14/2007 6:54:47 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Nope, still a lie. Not a percentage, just a futures price.
39 posted on 11/14/2007 6:55:55 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Oh, cool, it’s Petronski coming in and bumping the thread with his nonsense. Or was that her nonsense? We never did clear that up. I checked today and Fred was at 6%, with an upward looking trend to 6.5 or so.
40 posted on 11/14/2007 6:57:04 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered yesterday.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts
41 posted on 11/14/2007 6:58:29 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Not a percentage. You’re lying trying to make Fred look bad. These are not polling percentages, they’re futures prices.
42 posted on 11/14/2007 6:58:39 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
Asked & answered yesterday.
Yep, you were lying yesterday, were notified about it, and are still lying about it today.
43 posted on 11/14/2007 6:59:13 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
You’re right. Again. I think that must be the umpteenth time I’ve said that. They’re futures percentages, which have better predictor value than polling numbers. As you have been notified, and have chosen not to engage on the Efficacy thread, even though you chose to post on the thread where Fred once had the lead. That means you simply don’t like what Intrade has to say today, though you once liked what it had to say, and yesterday you called it DATA.
Thanks for bumping this thread.
Fred Takes Lead on InTrade!
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts
48 posted on 11/14/2007 7:08:31 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
Thanks for bumping the thread. Sorry you don’t like what Intrade has to say in terms of the data it points out to folks about your candidate.
53 posted on 11/14/2007 7:12:55 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. That’s your lie.
54 posted on 11/14/2007 7:13:53 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
It’s not a percentage, it’s a future price.
***Asked and answered on that other thread.
For the benefit of lurkers
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/tradesports/help/howitworks.html#tellmewhatthepricesmean
Tell me what the prices mean
Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring. Let’s go back to our George Bush example, on December 1, 2003 the George Bush re-election contract was trading at 63, meaning, traders gave him a 63% chance of being re-elected.
If you thought President Bush will be re-elected you would expect that price to go up - towards 100. In that case, if you bought one contract at 63 and Mr. Bush did get re-elected you would make the difference between your purchase price - 63 - and the closing price - 100 - or 37 points. How much profit would that be? Click here.
It’s important to realize that you don’t have to hold your contracts until the result of the event is decided - you can get out of your position at any time until the event is over. So if you change your mind about the outcome you can come back to the exchange, enter an order and close out your position, whether it’s for a profit or loss depends on you.
top of the page
Who determines the prices?
You do - along with thousands of traders around the world. Just like the price of Microsoft stock is determined by the buying & selling activities of thousands of traders in the financial markets, the price of our contracts are determined by traders, like you, who are confident enough to back up their opinion by risking real money.
top of the page
55 posted on 11/14/2007 7:14:49 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: captnorb
This is the first time I’ve felt hopeful about our political process in fifty years. Maybe it really can work the way it’s supposed to, if we can keep these short-sighted ideologues from hogging the road and holding up traffic.
56 posted on 11/14/2007 7:15:00 PM PST by Eastbound
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To: Kevmo
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.
57 posted on 11/14/2007 7:15:16 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
I’m not bound to expose your lies on your little ‘efficacy thread.’ I’m going to point them out where you put them.
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.
61 posted on 11/14/2007 7:16:55 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
“you can think of the price as the percentage.”
It’s a price, not a percentage.
I’m not bound to expose your lies on your little ‘efficacy thread.’ I’m going to point them out where you put them.
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.
62 posted on 11/14/2007 7:17:46 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
63 posted on 11/14/2007 7:18:10 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
I’m happy to call attention to your lies, here, where you’ve posted them.
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.
64 posted on 11/14/2007 7:19:50 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
65 posted on 11/14/2007 7:20:26 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
I’m happy to call attention to your lies, here, where you’ve posted them.
Intrade doesn’t say what you claim it says. You’re misrepresenting the meaning of the numbers. That’s your lie.
66 posted on 11/14/2007 7:21:51 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
67 posted on 11/14/2007 7:22:48 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
OK. Buy a bunch of Fred futures.
Thank me when he wins and you’re rich. Split your profits with me 50/50.
68 posted on 11/14/2007 7:23:03 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you’re pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn’t mean you’re a conservative.)
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To: Kevmo
I’m happy to keep your lies bumped. Exposes your deception.
69 posted on 11/14/2007 7:24:22 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: RockinRight
I think Hunter is a better bargain. He currently polls at 4% and if Intrade started to track that you would get 40X return on your investment.
Fred, on the other hand, is the only candidate I know of who has lost ~30 points on Intrade. Probably not as good of a bet.
70 posted on 11/14/2007 7:24:45 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
Asked & answered.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
71 posted on 11/14/2007 7:25:12 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Intrade says what it says. People can see for themselves.
It says what it says, not what you claim. Happily, people can see through your lies.
72 posted on 11/14/2007 7:25:26 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
We can let them decide for themselves. Caveat subscriptor.
73 posted on 11/14/2007 7:26:14 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
Be careful of the liar. He posts as Kevmo.
74 posted on 11/14/2007 7:27:02 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski; devere
Oh, look. Someone else posting Intrade data. You might want to ping them. It’s 2 for the price of 1 day for stalkers.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925892/posts?page=37#25
75 posted on 11/14/2007 7:29:03 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski
You misread this post. And I would leave it to the readers to decide whether your accusations were a result of some other misreading.
From my original post:
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
That means Hunter polls at 4%. Hunter’s futures at Intrade, if they were at 4% would not be the kind of bargain I was talking about because you couldn’t get 40X return by tracking to the poll data.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
79 posted on 11/14/2007 7:48:10 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Charles Martel
You tell me, did Petronski misread post #70 or not?
If he/she misread that post, isn’t it a distinct possibility that he/she misread the other posts that gets their panties in a wad?
80 posted on 11/14/2007 7:50:31 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Petronski; kevkrom
Well, what a sucker I am!
The highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 (divide by ten and that’s a penny, folks), but Hunter Duncan actually DID poll at 4% in the notoriously inaccurate ARG, near as I can tell.
That’s the danger here. Fred is quoted at 6% (actually not a polling number, just a futures contract price, and definitely NOT a percentage) and Hunter is quoted at 4% (an actual, albeit shabby, poll) and an apples-to-oranges comparison misleads the reader.
That’s how good—and how dangerous—this lie is, it’s designed to deceive (to play a shell game between the two very different kind of data), and it works.
Let’s review:
Intrade futures contracts:
Fred about $6
Hunter $.1
Rasmussen daily polling:
Fred 12%
Hunter - too low to ascertain, 2% shared with others.
81 posted on 11/14/2007 7:51:06 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Kevmo
It’s all explained at #80.
I’m going to keep reposting that as long as you keep misrepresenting the numbers.
82 posted on 11/14/2007 7:52:00 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
What does Fred mean by ‘Secure our Borders’? Is he supporting the invisible fence border monitoring system or is he supporting the physical double border fence?
83 posted on 11/14/2007 7:59:47 PM PST by Calpernia (Hunters Rangers - Raising the Bar of Integrity http://www.barofintegrity.us)
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To: Petronski; kevkrom
That’s how good—and how dangerous—this lie is,
***Yup. What you just posted was either a lie or a mistake. You cc’d Kevkrom, not me. I’ve seen others do that in the hopes that the post would be overlooked.
I will let the readers decide for themselves.
It took you this long to actually start using the data. You said, “highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 “ which means that you consider it highly-predictive and good data. Now, I happen to not like the fact that Hunter is valued so low, but I’m posting Intrade results right & left because they are what they are. But you go around calling me a liar after you’ve posted on the thread where Fred was leading at Intrade and accepting the good news as good data.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1842292/posts
You and I went round & round on that other thread where it was agreed this was an apples-to-oranges comparison (metaphor put forth by me, not you) and I said it was reasonable as long as I called it fruit. Apples are apples, oranges are oranges, both are fruit. Polling data are polls, Intrade is futures contracts, and both are data.
I think our exchanges should prove educational on the efficacy thread so I think I will copy them over to there.
Thanks for bumping the thread.
84 posted on 11/14/2007 8:01:47 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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Twenty-five posts in six days? This thread is a graveyard for crickets, filled with tumbleweeds.
You’re splashing your lying comparisons all over the forum, that’s where I’m going to respond.
When you compare 4% for Hunter in the ARG poll to $6 in Intrade (and mislabel it a percentage), you are being deliberately misleading.
Intrade:
Hunter: .1
Fred: >$6
Rasmussen:
Hunter <2%
Fred: 12%
Leading people to believe the $6 contract price is a 6% poll result is a lie.
I am going to continue correcting you in this fashion as often as I can until you stop the misrepresentation.
From that other thread.
To: Kevmo
Tou said, “highly-predictive Intrade futures contract is valued at .1 “ which means that you consider it highly-predictive and good data.
No, it means I’m a sarcastic SOB.
Polling data are polls, Intrade is futures contracts, and both are data.
But they cannot be compared one to the other. Clearly labeling them.
Comparing Fred at 6% (not a percentage) to Hunter at 4% (a polling percentage) is a lie.
Either compare Intrade futures (.1 for Hunter, 6.x for Fred) or compare poll results (Fred at 11%, Hunter <2%)
Anything else is deceptive, and it has been made abundantly clear to you.
Apples are apples, oranges are oranges, both are fruit.
And in this case, intercomparing them is a lie.
86 posted on 11/14/2007 8:06:52 PM PST by Petronski (Willardcare abortions $50 each, $25 per twin. Ask for S&H Stamps!)
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To: Petronski
No, it means I’m a sarcastic SOB.
***Then that is a retraction? Are you going to retract what you said yesterday when you called it data? I posted much of our exchange over on the efficacy thread where this discussion belongs.
Since you seem to honestly believe that “intercomparing them is a lie”, I will post this over at the efficacy thread also. That’s where it belongs. This is an immigration thread.
91 posted on 11/14/2007 8:21:28 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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Of course, you didn’t copy this one:
***Then that is a retraction? Are you going to retract what you said yesterday when you called it data?
There’s nothing to retract. You can’t recognize sarcasm? Not my fault.
Of course it’s data, why would I deny it’s data?
It just doesn’t mean what you claim, in subtle ways designed to mislead. I’m not going to confine myself to your little slum thread when you’re spreading your misrepresentations all over the forum. Not as long as I’m here.