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Cacique's Recomended Reading List for week of November 12, 2007
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Posted on 11/10/2007 12:37:49 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
Fred Thompson's campaign for president has collapsed.
Well, at least, among the bookies.
I've been giving readers regular updates on the betting in the presidential election, but absolutely nothing has been more dramatic this fall than Thompson's market meltdown. According to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets, the TV actor's chances of winning the GOP nomination have slumped in just six weeks from nearly 30% to less than 10%.
As recently as June, just after the former Senator announced he was running, he was the favorite in the betting, at nearly 40%.
The numbers are similar over at Dublin-based betting exchange InTrade. Thompson was at 35% in July. Today? 6%.
Credit the old Wall Street saw: Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.
Before Thompson jumped into the race, conservative columnist George Will compared the anticipation to "Tulipmania." He questioned whether the Law & Order star really offered either the charisma, or the Mr. Conservative credentials, that his boosters claimed.
Maybe Thompson could never have matched the elevated expectations that greeted him. But his lackluster campaign and weak debate performances have brought him down to earth with a thump.
The betting now puts the Republican race between two people. The markets give Rudy Giuliani a 40% chance of winning the nomination, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney a 30% chance.
(Excerpt) Read more at thestreet.com ...
• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •
I’d like to put a few thousand on Fred please. Are they taking bets in Vegas on his chances?
Yep. It’s a two man race now.
He is a flaiming lib that supports hildabeast. Of COURSE he is gonna push rudith and mitt.
More typical garbage, trying to put the nails in Fred’s coffin. Better Fred than dead as the saying goes.
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Cacique's Recomended Reading List for week of November 12, 2007
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Since I’m still a registered Republican (but not for long), if the race is down to 2 RINOs, I say ANYBODY BUT RUDY!!!!!
At the equivalent point in time in 2003, Dean led in Iowa, Intrade, and the national polls by wide margins. Iowa changed that. I will not be surprised if the same thing happens this time.
Figures you’d take your political advice from a lib, and put stock in these idiotic gambling sites.
Any port in a storm, you know.
It seems like they have forgotten about the base.
I say let’s vote a real conservative in everywhere. I am sick of being dictated too.
PS— I like your tagline!
The ONLY reason I’ve stayed a registered Republican since the party has obviously left me long ago is so I can vote for Hunter in the primary. That will be LONG after the nominee has been chosen, but I will do it anyway since I suspect it will be my very last vote for a Republican for anything.
I gotta get in on that action man - buyin FRED low and sellin high when he is inaugurated.
If so, the Republican party will cease to exist.
You would think that Thompson’s road to the White HOuse involves a win in South Carolina. The polls from that state have been all over the place. So, why is he being written off?
A problem has developed for Thompson on the religious-right, with Huckabee’s excellent performances in the debates, and gathering strengh in polls. Huckabee may pull a Pat Robertson in Iowa, and finish a strong second. He may also do well in a very crowded field in New Hampshire. Such results would help him in South Carolina, and leave little possibility for Thompson to win that state by consolidating the anti-Guiliani vote.
Romney continues to defy gravity in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, perhaps because of his air campaign. True, he is still very far behing Rudy in the follow-up states of CA, FL, NJ and PA, and has fallen behind Rudy in MI. But, Romney’s strategy is to win or at least do very well in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and parlay these successes into the resources ($) needed to win in the follow-on states. So far, at least, this strategy is holding together.
The night before the Iowa caucuses in January 2004, Intrade’s investors thought Howard Dean had a 45% chance of winning the caucus; Gephardt had 25% chance and Kerry was a distant third at 20%. The same day, the Iowa Electronic Markets gave Howard Dean 51% chance of winning the donk nomination, Wesley Clark 21%, and Kerry only 13%.
Investors Point To Iowa Winner
Some tracking polls show the presidential contest in Iowa as too close to call, but the invisible hand of the market is pointing to the favorite.
Howard Dean is the choice of two political futures markets, where thousands of speculators, unlike journalists, put their money where their punditry is. They buy and sell contracts that pay off if a candidate wins.
At press time on Saturday, Dr. Dean’s stock in the Iowa caucuses market at Intrade.com was listed at 45, meaning that investors gave him a 45 percent chance to win the caucuses tomorrow. Next was Representative Richard A. Gephardt at 25 percent, followed by Senator John Kerry at 20 and Senator John Edwards at 8.
Dr. Dean also remained the favorite to be the eventual nominee on another exchange, the Iowa Electronic Markets. Traders yesterday gave him a 51 percent chance to win, putting him well ahead of Gen. Wesley K. Clark (21 percent) and Mr. Kerry (13 percent). This exchange has been run since 1988 by the University of Iowa’s business school, which says its futures market has usually been more accurate than public opinion polls at predicting election results.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DEEDA1638F936A15752C0A9629C8B63
Here’s an article from your own source, The Street, discussing why presidential futures markets are not necessary great predictors (main reasons are relatively tiny betting pools, relatively miniscule amounts wagered, and susceptibility to manipulation):
Those Spurious Presidential Futures
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185976.html
Are you the stalker???
This will be your last vote for a Republican for anything??? And that would be because??
You always spoil the fun of the anti-Freds.....:)
Wow! A two man race. I think Mitt does look like the one who can knock out Rudy. I hope people wake up before it is too late.
You left out the main point, and recap, which is given the above information an intelligent person would say that they are 99.9% BS.
But good post!
I will vote for Hunter too. I also suspect a lot more will also. He is the true conservative and I am sick of our country’s elites trying to fix these elections.
Thanks for posting this.
B4DH.
Here’s a very recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page
Here’s one showing Fred at 6%, and discussing why.
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.
Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts
Oh, now Intrade is bogus. Show us your post dismissing the signicance of Intrade on this thread:
Thought so. Fred doing well on Intrade = Intrade good. Fred tanking = Intrade bad.
Can I steal that one, like I stole the other one and put it on the other thread?
This thread:
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
His strategy may hold together. In my view the election continues to look wide-open -- the primary campaign has been very unpredictable so far, and I expect that to continue.
However, looking at past trends, if I were in Romney's campaign I would be concerned about the return on investment he's getting even in primary states where he's ahead.
For example, Bush spent an estimated $750,000 on the Iowa straw polls in 1999. Forbes reportedly spent a couple million. Bush ended up with 7,418 votes (31%); Forbes had 4,921 (21% of the votes); Dole had 14%; Gary Bauer had 9%; and Buchanan had 7%.
In contrast, Romney reportedly spent several million on the straw poll (massively outspending his rivals), and most of his GOP competition did not participate. Logically, Romney should have done *much* better than Bush did in 2000, given that Bush was dealing with very active competion in the straw poll and had been outspent. Yet Romney got only got 31% of the vote with little competition and a huge spending advantage. Worse, the number of votes, 4,516, was not even as many as second-place Forbes was able to win in 2000.
But, the straw poll was back in August; Romney's camp must be happy that he's maintained his lead in Iowa.
However, comparing Romney's current numbers to Bush's in November of 2000, it becomes clear that Romney's lead is far below what he might hope for historically. In November 2000, Bush was polling at 49% in Iowa; Bush led Forbes by 29 points, again despite being outspent.
On the other hand, Romney has a huge spending advantage in Iowa, yet RCP average shows Romney at 29%, 14 points ahead of Huckabee who has very little money. The latest Iowa Rasmussen poll has Romney only six points ahead of Thompson and seven points ahead of Huckabee, despte the fact that Thompson has been in the race less than 10 weeks and Huckabee has funding challenges.
In a nutshell, absolutely Romney and his folks have got to be glad he's leading in states where he's spent a lot of money. But digging deeper, they must be concerned that he's not doing a lot better compared to past trends. Time will tell.
I still have to get over to your interesting thread — I want to do a compare and contrast between polls and futures markets so we can analyze it. I’ll post it there!
I see that I pinged you over at this other thread and you didn’t bother.
If you have a better unbiased indicator, we’d all like to hear it, and especially to show how its performance has beaten trading markets like Intrade.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets
The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
We were apparently typing to eachother at the same time.
It would be good to have this discussion, whether on that thread or this one. I’m hoping to aggregate it on that thread because the title is more generic.
Yes, Yes, - Guliani will make an excellent VP under Clinton.
> Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM)
Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008 <
2008? I’m a great believer in futures markets and the like. But I never suspected they were THAT prescient!
If you could ping me to that when you post it, I’d greatly appreciate it. :)
All this means is that Fred isn’t getting the coverage of Rudy and Romney and the “free press” has decided they prefer a horse race and have picked the two north east liberals because they hate the GOP and want to reshape it in their image and this year it just might work.
There’s something to that. If you line up all the GOP candidates and say, well, I’m the MSM and I want to shape the republican party into the image that I want it to be. So I’m going to prop up a cross-dressing open borders liberal, a Mormon flipflopper, a certified whacko nutcase former POW RINO, and a certified whacko nutcase libertarian who wouldn’t even vote for a republican. I’m not going to uphold any social conservative, so it will be Duncan Who? and Tanking Tancredo and only bad press about the hollywood hopeful.
That’s a thread here on FR, so maybe the mods should fix it... but that’s a pretty good catch ;-)
Bttt!
Those markets are less liquid than a subprime CDO.
I guess I’m just plain stupid, but will somebody please explain to me why Fred isn’t trouncing these as***les? I mean, let’s get real, he’s the only real conservative in the pack. He should creaming these guys! Why anybody would support Rudy over Fred or Mitt over Fred or anybody over Fred just blows my mind ! He’s the real deal, for Chr**t sake. He should be ahead by 20 points. I’m just flabbergasted at the whole thing.
Huckfillary
:-D
Fred wants to be pres, just doesnt want to run for pres?
Glad to see that you are realistic enought to realize that Fred is already in the coffin and it only remains to fuss over nailing down the lid.
LOL! My my you are sensitive.
I couldn't find my post on that thread, do you have a link directly to it? If I did post no doubt, being a Fredhead, I was happy about it as I would be happy to have Fred up in this most recent intrade report. But I doubt seriously that I posted that I thought Intrade was a good indicator of the ultimate outcome of an election. If I did then you got me......touche'
And even if you just handed me a "gotcha" that says nothing about the ability of Ellery to spoil the fun of the anti-Freds, repeatedly and with great eloquence....bwhahahahahahahahaha!
Now Plutarch, how about showing me my post eh?
There is a history behind that. The ONLY reason any of us were interested in Intrade was because some dingbat kept harassing us about it, and we got in our digs on him when Fred went up.
Fred shares would have been liquidated well before that, since the bet is who will win the nomination.
Still, I'm taking a strong long position on Fred, a weak long position on rest-of-field, neutral on Romney, and short on Giuliani and McCain. I don't think Fred is terribly likely to win, but I think he's got better than an 8% chance since there isn't any candidate who is unambiguously better.
***crickets***
Ahhh them Mittheads, just too easy....like shootin fish in a barrel....LOL!
We have the wit and wisdom of Ellery and they have the wit and wisdom of...well..er...hmmmm....well they have spunk anyway.
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