Bookies: Thompson Out, Rudy and Mitt Tops

The Street.com ^ | November 9, 2007 | Brett Arends

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Fred Thompson's campaign for president has collapsed.

Well, at least, among the bookies.

I've been giving readers regular updates on the betting in the presidential election, but absolutely nothing has been more dramatic this fall than Thompson's market meltdown. According to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets, the TV actor's chances of winning the GOP nomination have slumped in just six weeks from nearly 30% to less than 10%.

As recently as June, just after the former Senator announced he was running, he was the favorite in the betting, at nearly 40%.

The numbers are similar over at Dublin-based betting exchange InTrade. Thompson was at 35% in July. Today? 6%.

Credit the old Wall Street saw: Buy on the rumor, and sell on the news.

Before Thompson jumped into the race, conservative columnist George Will compared the anticipation to "Tulipmania." He questioned whether the Law & Order star really offered either the charisma, or the Mr. Conservative credentials, that his boosters claimed.

Maybe Thompson could never have matched the elevated expectations that greeted him. But his lackluster campaign and weak debate performances have brought him down to earth with a thump.

The betting now puts the Republican race between two people. The markets give Rudy Giuliani a 40% chance of winning the nomination, and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney a 30% chance.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

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[mainerforglobalwarming]

I’d like to put a few thousand on Fred please. Are they taking bets in Vegas on his chances?

[khnyny]

Yep. It’s a two man race now.

[TLI]

He is a flaiming lib that supports hildabeast. Of COURSE he is gonna push rudith and mitt.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/im-standing-my-ground-on-hillary-clinton/markets/marketfeatures/10383592.html?puc=_tscs

http://www.thestreet.com/s/are-we-in-a-hillary-clinton-bubble/markets/marketfeatures/10382912.html?puc=_tscs

http://www.thestreet.com/s/democrats-still-winning-over-wall-street/markets/marketfeatures/10385366.html?puc=_tscs

[Blue Highway]

More typical garbage, trying to put the nails in Fred’s coffin. Better Fred than dead as the saying goes.

[Cacique]

Neither Giulianni nor Mitt are Conservatives by any stretch of the imagination. Fred Thompson only slightly more so. It's a sad case When the leaders of the GOP pack are warmed over liberals on a budget.

Cacique's Recomended Reading List for week of November 12, 2007
CLICK ON ANY COVER FOR MORE INFORMATION

[penowa]

Since I’m still a registered Republican (but not for long), if the race is down to 2 RINOs, I say ANYBODY BUT RUDY!!!!!

[Ingtar]

At the equivalent point in time in 2003, Dean led in Iowa, Intrade, and the national polls by wide margins. Iowa changed that. I will not be surprised if the same thing happens this time.

[papasmurf]

Figures you’d take your political advice from a lib, and put stock in these idiotic gambling sites.

[Clara Lou]

Any port in a storm, you know.

[freekitty]

It seems like they have forgotten about the base.

I say let’s vote a real conservative in everywhere. I am sick of being dictated too.

[cynwoody]

RConv08
2008 US Republican National Convention Market

[Clara Lou]

PS— I like your tagline!

[penowa]

The ONLY reason I’ve stayed a registered Republican since the party has obviously left me long ago is so I can vote for Hunter in the primary. That will be LONG after the nominee has been chosen, but I will do it anyway since I suspect it will be my very last vote for a Republican for anything.

[Squidpup]

I gotta get in on that action man - buyin FRED low and sellin high when he is inaugurated.

[sourcery]

If so, the Republican party will cease to exist.

[Redmen4ever]

You would think that Thompson’s road to the White HOuse involves a win in South Carolina. The polls from that state have been all over the place. So, why is he being written off?

A problem has developed for Thompson on the religious-right, with Huckabee’s excellent performances in the debates, and gathering strengh in polls. Huckabee may pull a Pat Robertson in Iowa, and finish a strong second. He may also do well in a very crowded field in New Hampshire. Such results would help him in South Carolina, and leave little possibility for Thompson to win that state by consolidating the anti-Guiliani vote.

Romney continues to defy gravity in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, perhaps because of his air campaign. True, he is still very far behing Rudy in the follow-up states of CA, FL, NJ and PA, and has fallen behind Rudy in MI. But, Romney’s strategy is to win or at least do very well in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and parlay these successes into the resources ($) needed to win in the follow-on states. So far, at least, this strategy is holding together.

[ellery]

The night before the Iowa caucuses in January 2004, Intrade’s investors thought Howard Dean had a 45% chance of winning the caucus; Gephardt had 25% chance and Kerry was a distant third at 20%. The same day, the Iowa Electronic Markets gave Howard Dean 51% chance of winning the donk nomination, Wesley Clark 21%, and Kerry only 13%.

Investors Point To Iowa Winner

Some tracking polls show the presidential contest in Iowa as too close to call, but the invisible hand of the market is pointing to the favorite.

Howard Dean is the choice of two political futures markets, where thousands of speculators, unlike journalists, put their money where their punditry is. They buy and sell contracts that pay off if a candidate wins.

At press time on Saturday, Dr. Dean’s stock in the Iowa caucuses market at Intrade.com was listed at 45, meaning that investors gave him a 45 percent chance to win the caucuses tomorrow. Next was Representative Richard A. Gephardt at 25 percent, followed by Senator John Kerry at 20 and Senator John Edwards at 8.

Dr. Dean also remained the favorite to be the eventual nominee on another exchange, the Iowa Electronic Markets. Traders yesterday gave him a 51 percent chance to win, putting him well ahead of Gen. Wesley K. Clark (21 percent) and Mr. Kerry (13 percent). This exchange has been run since 1988 by the University of Iowa’s business school, which says its futures market has usually been more accurate than public opinion polls at predicting election results.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DEEDA1638F936A15752C0A9629C8B63

Here’s an article from your own source, The Street, discussing why presidential futures markets are not necessary great predictors (main reasons are relatively tiny betting pools, relatively miniscule amounts wagered, and susceptibility to manipulation):

Those Spurious Presidential Futures

http://www.thestreet.com/p/_rms/rmoney/barryritholtz/10185976.html

[org.whodat]

Are you the stalker???