Giuliani 27%
Romney 16%
McCain 13%
Huckabee 11%
Thompson 11%
Posted on 11/13/2007 8:08:22 AM PST by Spiff
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Rudy Giuliani on top, Mitt Romney in second, and Fred Thompson sinking in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 27% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while Romney has moved up a couple of points to 16%. John McCain remains in third at 13% while Thompson is now tied with Mike Huckabee at 11%. Ron Paul's support fell a point to 5% and no other Republican tops 2% (see recent daily numbers).
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Senator Hillary Clinton is the top choice for 41% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Senator Barack Obama earns the vote from 20% while former Senator John Edwards attracts 17%. Bill Richardson is preferred by 5% and no other candidate tops the 3% level among Likely Democratic Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers).
Just 25% of Americans believe Democratic candidates have been “piling on” Clinton and attacking her unfairly. Democrats are more likely to believe that to be the case, but there is no gender gap on the issue.
New state election polls show Giuliani and McCain competitive with Clinton in Connecticut, Clinton competitive in Georgia, and Clinton doing well in Tennessee against anyone but Thompson. Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss has solid leads over three potential challengers in his bid for re-election and former Senator Bill Frist is a very early favorite for the 2010 Governor’s election in Tennessee.
Romney is now seen as the most conservative Republican candidate, a crown previously worn by Thompson. Huckabee is gaining fast, hampered only by a relatively low level of name recognition. Polling data from the past week has been kind to Romney, Huckabee, and McCain.
Among Democrats, the campaign has become a tale of two narratives that will collide in Iowa on January 3. In one narrative, Clinton’s campaign has been hurt by the stumbles of recent weeks while the other considers her the dominant frontrunner. Both have the virtue of being true.
Finally, 61% of Americans now want U.S. troops to come home from Iraq within the year.
The Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 Presidential Tracking Poll is updated daily, Monday through Friday. The Presidential Tracking Poll will be updated seven days a week beginning Saturday, December 1, 2007. Daily results are based upon a four day rolling average and new results are posted each day by noon Eastern.
Daily tracking results are from survey interviews conducted over four days ending last night. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Rasmussen Reports provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
So, um, Scott Rassmussen fears Fred? Funny thing is, I’m still rooting for Fred to get it together. Don’t see what good alternative we have. And yea, it’s just polls. But geez.
Fred was once our hope. Not looking very promising at this stage. For those who say, “there’s still time”, they need to realize that really there is about another week. Once Thanksgiving hits, politics are done for the year. Then the first early primaries hit, and very soon we are at Feb. 5 when the nominee will be determined.
Fred’s history.
It will “probably” be Giuliani, but, Romney’s early victories (especially if he pulls out SC) might make it interesting on Feb. 5.
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Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
That makes second, third and fourth statistically tied.
Undecided 22%
If Romney sweeps the early primaries these current polls won’t mean a thing. Not only will they tighten up but he’ll probably pull ahead for good.
I am, as well. But right now, Huck and Mitt are running the best campaigns. Fred MAY be getting his act together in his key states, but so far the campaign staff has been unimpressive. McCain is core support - his campaign has no steam to run out of. The rest are pretty much within the margin of error of zero. (Paul's a libertarian, not a republican, so his support is coming from a different place.)
At this point, Fred only has about a month left to get his campaign running at full speed.
16 - 11 = 5
4 does not equal 5
3rd and last are statistically tied. 2nd is not.
And you never made this argument when Thompson was ahead, but statistically tied with Romney. Interesting timing how you just trotted out your poor math.
I really thought Fred would connect not only with the GOP Base but with Independents in Blue and Purple States. And now, apparently that is not the case. I also thought the Rudy would be case aside by the GOP Base and obviously that is not the case for now.
That leaves Romney and McCain. Neither a first, second or even third choice but GOP traditions says that McCain will get the GOP nod and the money shows that Romney will get the nomination.
Fred Thompson and his advisers had better act fast, as we are already in mid-November. If this poll is accurate, he is sinking down to Mike Huckabee levels nationally. In New Hampshire, he is only 1% ahead of Ron Paul! If Thompson cannot win the South Carolina GOP primary, his campaign will be over.
Its not too late for Fred to comeback, but time is getting really short as we go into Iowa.
Romney viewed as most conservative? Guess it proves that money can make a lie work.
I think Fred thought it would just come to him.
the wesley clark of the 2008 cycle.
Seven weeks to IA.
If Romney sweeps the early primaries these current polls won’t mean a thing. Not only will they tighten up but he’ll probably pull ahead for good.”
That’s the question, isn’t it? If that is true, Romney wins. If it turns out that his “mo” doesn’t translate into better numbers on Feb. 5, then Giuliani wins.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Giuliani is running a campaign that is unlike any in GOP primary history (forgetting about the early states, banking on the big ones). But this cycle with all the front loading (Feb. 5) is unlike any other. So using history as a guide it is impossible to say what will happen.
But you are quite right in stating the relevant data. If Romney wins those first 4 (he will certainly win 3 of them), then ...?
Rudy gets the Kerik/Robertson bounce.
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