Posted on 11/14/2007 8:11:25 AM PST by eastsider
I was just reporting what I heard.
The post-Election Day primary campaign-in-earnest is just getting started. There are seven weeks left before the Iowa Caucuses, nine before the South Carolina Primary, and one day short of ten weeks before the New Hampshire Primary (which is almost certain to be moved up before South Carolina’s).
As they say, that’s an eternity in politics. I read recently that something like 60% of the Iowa voters who were presently supporting a candidate said that they would supporting another candidate before the Caucuses. IOW, these early poll results demonstrate that the Republican primary race is still very fluid.
“would supporting” in 22 should be “could see themselves supporting”
Source?
The trend is looking good.
MITT IS THE GUY WHO CAN KNOCK RUDY OUT!
See #16.
Thank you for the information. I've read that blurb at the bottom of the Rasmussen commentary, but never interpreted as you have. I interpreted as each poll was taken over 4 days, not that they were reporting a 4-day running average.
Nevertheless, you're right. The full effect of the NRLC endorsement has not been seen yet as the posted results include responses from days ago, before the NRLC announcement was made.
Unless Scott R. wants to open up the internals to us freeloaders, though, I guess it's hard to tell. :)
I think we should eliminate elections as they are costly and time-consuming. Why bother with silly elections when we can let the Rasmussen Poll decide who our president is for us?
Every thread touting a poll receives this comment.
You and I assumed similarly, that it would be inefficient. But I also assumed that if he was using a 4-day running average, he would have said so.
Thompson never should have entered the race. He would have a better chance of winning by staying out of it! ;)
Having thought about it some, I don’t think that it’s an average. Taking what it says literally, for Republicans each daily result is the actual percentage of the most recent 2,400 samples. Tomorrow’s result will have the oldest 600 samples replaced with today’s 600 samples.
Every thread touting a poll receives this comment.I'd love to test the comment by posting a thread showing Duncan Hunter polling ahead of Ron Paul, but I don't seem to be able to find one ...
Hey! Teacher! Leave our Fred alone!
The poll results from 5 February 08 are all that matter, at this point. (Two days after my double nickel day!)
Seems logical. That would make the samples rolling, not the daily percents.
Talk about leaving a mark, that one might need stitches. LOL
5 February 08 ... Two days after my double nickel day!Tuesday's smurf is full of grace!
“Because the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll is really a four-day average, the effect of NRLC’s endorsement of Fred is minimal in today’s daily results.”
Before I write, let state clearly that I’m in the undecided category and currently don’t have a candidate in mind. I’m not taking sides here. I will state that I am against Guiliani.
What you wrote is exactly correct. We won’t see what effect the NRLC’s endorsement will have for several days. Notice, that Thompson is already up against Huckabee.
The only significant thing I think one can draw from these numbers is that the group supporting Guiliani is pretty consistent. While others pop up and down. In fact he seems to be getting a very stable support from whomever is supporting him. I was shocked when Robertson endorsed Guiliani and thought it would be meaningless, but I think I was wrong about that. It looks like Robertson’s endorsement has helped Guiliani - at least it help solidify his lead.
As things stand now - and this is just a moment in time - it appears that it will take one or more of the minority candidates to drop out of the race (like Brownback did) and throw their support to someone more likely to beat Guiliani and best represent the GOP in the general election. I think Brownback’s endorsement of McCain has definitely help McCain’s numbers. If Hunter and Tancredo were to bow out and throw their support to another it might make a great deal of difference.
I know many here are strong Hunter supporters, with very good reason. He could have his greatest impact on the election by leaving and endorsing another. Also, picking him as a VP would be a wise move.
If the field were to be narrowed to just Guiliani, Thompson, Romney, McCain, and Huckabee the debates could be more focused and voters could probably see the differences between these men. Right now their are too many voices screaming to be heard. Of course a further culling would be desireable also and make the process even better.
Guiliani is benefiting from the fact that he has about 25% of the GOP vote solidy on his side nationwide. And that the rest of the vote is split between the other candidates.
Until several (and it is not my place to say whom) candidates to the right of Guiliani bow out and throw their support to whom they feel will best represent the GOP (that is their call also), then the party is really in danger of having a Noreastern Liberal represent it. Guiliani’s only positives are his (I hate to admit it) charisma, and his reputation (real or perceived - I don’t know) as a leader in NYC after 9-11. He is also strong on national defense.
On just about every other issue he is to the left of center - sometimes far left.
Whatever, until there is a culling Guiliani will continue to hold sway.
Rassmussen is trying to inflate ronpaul to prevent his exclusion from the next debate.
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