Skip to comments.(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
OK, so youve got a thousand dollars burning a hole in your pocket and you want to make a statement with it at the same time as getting 40X return on your investment, you want $40,000 for that $1000 bet, like Hillary did in her Pig Belly futures or whatever it was. Youre going to decide between putting it down on Hunter or Thompson over at Intrade because these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
Which one do you choose?
Lets start with the guy who has 3 balls. Hes got courage in spades. Hes engaged enemy soldiers in Viet Nam when he was a LRRP ranger and he got a Bronze Star for his real bravery. His friend and supporter also has 3 balls, the guy who we all know as the man who broke the sound barrier, Chuck Yeager. While theyre campaigning in Iowa, all you have to do is ask Chuck to tell the story about how he and Bob Hoover were in Russia and got that chance to fly a YAK and Bob took it up gently and respectfully and flew it straight & level into the horizon and then returned over the viewing stand flying upside down and basically causing the Russians to pee in their pants. After hearing this story or one of a million others, Hunter will take the podium and leverage that emotional courage language that Americans love, and theyll all look at each other & nod, saying, this is the guy who should be my president.
Now lets cover the guy who played a soldier in the movies. He was quite convincing when he was telling Jack Ryan of the CIA that he wouldnt be able to get to the submarine because it involved flying in a helicopter, and the last time Jack was in a helicopter he spent 3 months recovering from the accident. Its interesting and fun entertainment, but it is not real. While he and his friend are campaigning in Iowa, he will need to build his own emotional leverage with the audience, and this is not a Hollywood script.
Right now over at Intrade, Thompson futures contracts are trading at about 6%. There was a time when he had the lead and was trading at 35%, but over the last few weeks he has lost about 30 points. He had the spotlight shining on him as the most conservative guy with the best name recognition, while thousands of his supporters were crossing their fingers during the debates hoping he wouldnt screw up.
Hunter futures contracts are at 0.1%. Over the last few weeks they have remained at 0.1%, with the volume staying put at 27778. That is the number to watch. All it takes is for that number to start moving. It means someone is buying Hunters contract at a very low price. Within a few weeks, that number will be history. Hunter has been campaigning on a shoestring budget and slowly gaining recognition in the polls, recently just coming in at 4%.
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.
At that point, everyone will know hes at 5% in the polls. His futures contracts at Intrade, if theyre still at 0.1, will have relentless upward pressure from bargain hunters, but by then it will be too late to buy in at that price.
Heres where the decision gets made, why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter rather than Thompson. In order to get 40X return by investing in Thompson, you would have to buy his contract to win the whole kit & caboodle, the presidency, which is now trading at 2.5.
Fred Thompson to win 2008 US Presidential Election
At $6, you could not get 40X return on the Fred.Nominee contract. If you bought it at $5, the best you could get is 20X return.
Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
The forum at Intrade seems to waver between those who think Freds campaign is imploding and those who think it will rebound. But they have freewheeling discussions about the why and how that we have been missing here on Free Republic.
So your decision comes down to this: Is it more likely that Hunter will get 1% more exposure in national polls, and move up to 4 or 5% at Intrade or is it more likely that Thompson will win the presidency outright? Remember, this is the guy who had the spotlight shined on him as the conservative golden boy and lost 30 points at Intrade, and has been losing ground in the polls lately.
While his supporters are crossing their fingers hoping he doesnt screw up, Hunters supporters are folding their hands in prayer hoping that hell just be himself.
Over the last few days, Ive seen a couple of posts like this
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering
Posted by Kevmo to SergeiRachmaninov On News/Activism 11/13/2007 1:51:29 PM PST · 284 of 536
It is a bitter time for those who have invested all their hopes with Fred and repressed all doubts. ...Still it is not much fun when you have chosen your candidate, put him on a pedestal, and gone to war for him, and then reality starts to batter you. Ive already trod the path from hopeful about Fred, to disappointed, to angry in my disappointment. I really should do better at being gentle to those who are somewhere else along on that path.
***That is some amazing candor. I honestly do think that Hunter will not disappoint you in that way. He may not win the nomination due to lack of name recognition, but he is doing what he can about that. His character stands head & shoulders above the others in the race.
That is the emotional language of someone who has felt betrayed by his candidate. But the Hunter followers do not feel betrayed, they have circled the wagons and they are coming out fighting. Thats where you put your money down, where there is fight to the inner core, and the guy theyre fighting for is genuine.
All it takes is that one or two Freepers will copy this article and send it to their wealthy friend who did so well in the stock market during the dotcom boom, or won a thousand bucks at a beer drinking tournament or whatever. Then well start to see that 27778 number trickle, then it will flood through relentlessly. And that will serve as a metaphor for the entire republican campaign, what has been a trickle of support will soon break through the floodgates in myriads of ways, whether its our grandmother sending in the $25 check to Hunters campaign
or Iowans asking if they could put up a sign on their front lawn or our grandchild folding her hands in prayer for this courageous man.
And then well see Hunter smile.
Another BS ploy....do you not think that Huckabee is getting a little "assistance"? He's a minister for Christ's sake. If he were to be the nominee the Dems would get to see another Katheryn Harris moment.
Warning to all players, you are not talking to a typical sheep, I'm the new BS resistant type.
Yeah, all $2,777.80 of it.
Interesting — and I’ll send you a freepmail about those links...
He has no chance. He is a great unknown blessed with talent but devoid of presidential electability.
I get it, you have posted this ad nauseum and now it deserves it’s own thread?
Fred Foundering, yeah ok fine I think we get it. Bet on Hunter, ok, ok.
You are overplaying this whole thing. Even if it is worth considering it is becoming harder to take seriously since you post it 50 times a thread.
Oh, and putting your own post in as an example of “post you have been seeing”, well I hope you see a post you make...
A vanity indeed...
And therefore the most likely to lose in November.
I was encouraging Kevmo because he's sincere and trying to make a difference.
I am beyond disgusted with the 'powers that be' who have tried to ignore the most conservative candidate..running!
This cannot be what our forefathers had in mind!
Hunter talks a good game, and votes well on many issues dear to social conservatives, but he spends like a beltway boy. In addition, his ties to the military industry would have the media digging out stories like this, and more:
By being a pro life liberal, promoted vigorously by the MSM in order to siphon votes from the real conservatives, Fred and Duncan. Freds name recognition will keep him alive until his advertising and debates starts boosting his numbers.
Duncan's a great guy and everyone here likes him. But fundraising and grassroots support have to count for something.
Republican Candidates Candidate Home State Q3 Raised Q3 Spent Raised Spent Cash on Hand Debts
We have got to start listening to what the people want or this nomination is going to be split ten ways to Sunday. It's already apparent...the endorsements are scattered to the wind.
Hunter is the only candidate that the base can get excited about in mass. The elitists with their delusional political hierarchy requirement are going to force us to lose.
He’s been in the party for a long time, they are not ignoring him, the know him. He’s a great soldier for the cause but unless he can show an ability in the big game, they are not going to promote him over those with a greater range of abilities politically. He’s a great man and a great representative but only a good politician. It’s a political game on the national stage, it takes a great politician or a hell of a lot of luck.
Maybe one day that will change, and we will be better for it, but today is not that day.
That's a vague statement...more elaboration is a required. Is it your judgment alone or do you have facts?
Military spending is the third biggest line item in the federal budget, after interest on the debt and entitlements. That budget must be carefully managed with an eye to A) taking care of troops during and after their service, and B) ensuring high quality and sufficient quantity in their arms and provisions. It must be protected from undue influence by corporations that would benefit from juicy accounts, whether they delivery quality + value or not.
Military budgets are as susceptible to chicanery as highway funds and Water Resource Development funds.
That is so not correct.
As far as I can tell..you are either carrying the water for Dems or are buying the Koolaide or both. Entitlements have far outpaced any other spending since at least the 60's.