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(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

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It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.

According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0

37 posted on 11/14/2007 6:53:53 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

35 posted on 11/14/2007 8:29:17 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.) [ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies | Report Abuse ]

1 posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:18 AM PST by Kevmo
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To: pissant; AuntB; upsdriver; WalterSkinner; airborne; Sun

I still haven’t figured out how to get links to work right when I post an article. For the Hunter Ping List.

It’s a wide open race, might as well back the most conservative man.
According to Polls, Fred Thompson Foundering http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1925179/posts

Here’s what I’ve been posting lately.

Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Hunter might be gaining traction. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1797.page

Here’s an intrade link to the forum site discussing how Fred is at $6, which corresponds to the traders believing he has a 6% chance of winning the nomination, and discussing why. http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1805.page

One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum

Fred has lost ~30 points at Intrade over the last few weeks, looks like it’s stabilizing at ~6%.

Thompson Tanking in Futures Markets (Intrade, IEM) Intrade; Iowa Electronic Markets ^ | October 31, 2008

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1919127/posts

The Dropout contract for Thompson has an ask price 2 points higher than last trade. There is no Dropout contract for Hunter.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

DROPOUT.DEC07.(F)THOMPSON Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Dec 2007 M 6.0 9.2 4.0 0 0


2 posted on 11/15/2007 3:49:30 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

then apparently smart money is like common sense, it is not very common.

Just saw Thompson’s television ad, it says everything a conservatives of all candidate advocates want here.

This intra trade stuff still does not explain why Hunter has been dead in the water since the start of his campaign.

Even third party John Anderson in 1980 with only a dinosaur media had more in his campaign.


3 posted on 11/15/2007 3:52:35 AM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: longtermmemmory
"This intra trade stuff still does not explain why Hunter has been dead in the water since the start of his campaign."

Hunter is dead in the water because the elites in DC and the crooks in NY won't let their political arm...the media, give him any coverage. The more people wakeup to this fact, the more outraged they will become. This is going to be the revolution of the people, not the civil war with guns a lot of people are talking about. It's time for the people to take back the capital with their own candidate.

4 posted on 11/15/2007 3:59:57 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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Comment #5 Removed by Moderator

To: Kevmo

The “smart money” is on Hunter? Man, how I wish I were your bookie. You’d be putting my (hypothetical) kids through college.


6 posted on 11/15/2007 4:04:22 AM PST by ReignOfError
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To: Earthdweller

Hunter’s media problem is not a conspiracy, but the fact that the media does not consider the House as qualifying experience for the job. Never has, never will. He’s drawing dead, to use a poker expression.
My evidence? Dennis Kucinich, with more experience than any of the front-running Dems, and nutty positions a lot of the media subscribe to, has the same problem.


7 posted on 11/15/2007 4:06:51 AM PST by steve8714 (When full-out jihad hits Europe they'll all want dollars.)
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To: Earthdweller
Hunter is dead in the water because he has a poor campaign organization and no one knows who he is or what he's done. You have to create some interest in yourself before the MSN will show any interest.

Hunter has had 20+ years to create a persona while he served California. He didn't do that. No one knows who he is outside of California.

8 posted on 11/15/2007 4:06:54 AM PST by Clara Lou (Thompson '08)
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To: steve8714
That’s BS elitist and controling talk. There is no requirement or law in in the Constitution that says Hunter is not qualified.
9 posted on 11/15/2007 4:09:47 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Kevmo

Interesting.

The reason I am voting for Duncan Hunter is he is sincere. He is real and he is a true conservative. He cares about the country and it’s people. And he is a leader.


10 posted on 11/15/2007 4:11:09 AM PST by freekitty ((May the eagles long fly our beautiful and free American sky.))
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To: Clara Lou
Hunter is dead in the water because he needs money that he can’t get without media coverage and he can’t get media coverage because the "the money" doesn’t want it. See how the merry-go-round works? Do you seriously think that the people get to pick the candidates?
11 posted on 11/15/2007 4:14:52 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Earthdweller

Hunter needs a wealthy benefactor.

Someone motivated entirely by patriotism and good sense.

Is there such a person in America today?


12 posted on 11/15/2007 4:18:00 AM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (I like Duncan Hunter)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
"Is there such a person in America today?"

Good question.

13 posted on 11/15/2007 4:21:21 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Earthdweller

Spot on!


14 posted on 11/15/2007 4:23:56 AM PST by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter...President '08)
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To: Kevmo

Good job, Kevmo!


15 posted on 11/15/2007 4:24:18 AM PST by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter...President '08)
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To: Earthdweller

Hunter is dead in the water because of one person: Duncan Hunter.

Huckabee came from where Hunter is in the polls to being an actual contender. Do you know how he did it? By campaigning at Ames and convincing people to vote for him there. He came in second to Romney in what is historically the most important straw poll event for Republicans.

Hunter was there too. He campaigned there too, unlike some of the top-tier candidates. The only problem is that even though he campaigned there, he still finished WAY at the back of the pack. Only John McCain and John Cox (McCain not participating) performed worse than Duncan Hunter.

From that moment on, by failing to ignite his campaign at the ONE opportunity that a campaign like his has to do so, he murdered his own campaign and it has been decomposing ever since.

There is no media conspiracy. The media loves underdogs. They’d gladly pay attention to Hunter in a second if he gave them something worth paying attention to. He hasn’t.

Hunter could EASILY be where Huckabee is right now, if he only had the charisma to sway people to vote for him. He doesn’t. I think you guys know he doesn’t, which is why you all constantly try to browbeat everyone else into supporting him. It doesn’t work that way.


16 posted on 11/15/2007 4:26:44 AM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (John Cox 2008: Because Duncan Hunter just isn't obscure enough for me!)
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To: Kevmo

Kevmo, your analysis is flawed.

The reason Fred thompson is at 6% and Duncan Hunter at somewhere just barely above absolute zero is that despite everything else, like Thompson’s weakness over the past few weeks, Hunter’s slight gain in the polls in the same time frame, the price of tea in China, etc. one single important fact rules, and is is this: People with money aren’t betting it on Duncan Hunter because Hunter hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hades of securing the Republican nomination, no matter whether he is at 3%, 4% OR 5% in the polls, whereas Fred Thompson does have.

Thompson remains a much better Intrade bet at $6 than Duncan Hunter at next to nothing.


17 posted on 11/15/2007 4:28:09 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: Kevmo; pissant
All he needs is one more percent. Hunter needs to get to 5% in the coming weeks in order to be invited to the Iowa debate by our friends at the Iowa GOP.

OR???? Maybe they changed the rules?

Candidates accept invitations to Register debate
THE DES MOINES REGISTER • November 15, 2007

Six Democratic presidential candidates and at least seven Republican candidates will be taking part in The Des Moines Register's presidential debates next month.

GOP candidates who have accepted invitations to participate in the Dec. 12 debate for their party are: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, California Rep. Duncan Hunter, Arizona Sen. John McCain, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's campaign said Wednesday he was still considering the invitation.

(snip)

18 posted on 11/15/2007 4:31:05 AM PST by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: Earthdweller

Well, life is full of systems that we all have to operate within. If you want to be a politician, you have to do some things within the political system to be able to operate successfully. Hunter did well enough in California politics, but he didn’t do what he had to do to be able to operate in the system nationally.


19 posted on 11/15/2007 4:31:14 AM PST by Clara Lou (Thompson '08)
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To: Guenevere

It may be a good job at something, but as a way to make money it is some if the worst advice I have ever read.

Money placed on an Intrade proposition for Duncan Hunter to win the Republican nomination is money straight down the drain.

Unless you think that somehow, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Hunter will somehow catch fire to the point that he is actually seen as someone who can WIN, you’d be better off giving your money to charity,because you could at least take a tax deduction.

There is a reason why there is no trade in a Hunter drop-out scenario. That’s because its a dead certian proposition, and there are no takers on the other side of the bet.


20 posted on 11/15/2007 4:33:47 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: perfect_rovian_storm
"Huckabee came from where Hunter is in the polls to being an actual contender..,"

Another BS ploy....do you not think that Huckabee is getting a little "assistance"? He's a minister for Christ's sake. If he were to be the nominee the Dems would get to see another Katheryn Harris moment.

Warning to all players, you are not talking to a typical sheep, I'm the new BS resistant type.

21 posted on 11/15/2007 4:35:43 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Kevmo
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter:

Yeah, all $2,777.80 of it.

22 posted on 11/15/2007 4:37:37 AM PST by John Valentine
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To: Clara Lou
Our government and political system is in bondage to whatever scum sucking a-hole has enough money to buy his favorite candidate. Does anyone else but me have a problem with that? I’m sick of it. It was never meant to be that way.
23 posted on 11/15/2007 4:43:05 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Kevmo

Interesting — and I’ll send you a freepmail about those links...


24 posted on 11/15/2007 4:43:22 AM PST by StarCMC (http://cannoneerno4.wordpress.com; http://starcmc.wordpress.com/ - The Enemedia is inside the gates.)
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To: Kevmo

He has no chance. He is a great unknown blessed with talent but devoid of presidential electability.


25 posted on 11/15/2007 4:45:37 AM PST by bert (K.E. N.P. +12 . Moveon is not us...... Moveon is the enemy)
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To: Kevmo
Sheesh Kevmo, do you work for Intrade?

I get it, you have posted this ad nauseum and now it deserves it’s own thread?

Fred Foundering, yeah ok fine I think we get it. Bet on Hunter, ok, ok.

You are overplaying this whole thing. Even if it is worth considering it is becoming harder to take seriously since you post it 50 times a thread.

Oh, and putting your own post in as an example of “post you have been seeing”, well I hope you see a post you make...

A vanity indeed...

26 posted on 11/15/2007 4:46:02 AM PST by ejonesie22 (Real voters in real voting booths will elect FDT.)
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To: Kevmo
these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.

And therefore the most likely to lose in November.

27 posted on 11/15/2007 4:47:38 AM PST by Jim Noble (Trails of trouble, roads of battle, paths of victory we shall walk.)
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To: John Valentine
With God all things are possible...

I was encouraging Kevmo because he's sincere and trying to make a difference.

I am beyond disgusted with the 'powers that be' who have tried to ignore the most conservative candidate..running!

This cannot be what our forefathers had in mind!

28 posted on 11/15/2007 4:47:44 AM PST by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter...President '08)
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To: Kevmo

Hunter talks a good game, and votes well on many issues dear to social conservatives, but he spends like a beltway boy. In addition, his ties to the military industry would have the media digging out stories like this, and more:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/06/new_video_of_pl.html


29 posted on 11/15/2007 4:49:35 AM PST by Puddleglum
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To: perfect_rovian_storm
Huckabee came from where Hunter is in the polls to being an actual contender. Do you know how he did it?

By being a pro life liberal, promoted vigorously by the MSM in order to siphon votes from the real conservatives, Fred and Duncan. Freds name recognition will keep him alive until his advertising and debates starts boosting his numbers.

30 posted on 11/15/2007 4:50:08 AM PST by normy (Don't hit at all if it is honorably possible to avoid hitting; but never hit soft.)
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To: Earthdweller
A bit too conspiratorial.
31 posted on 11/15/2007 4:51:14 AM PST by ejonesie22 (Real voters in real voting booths will elect FDT.)
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Comment #32 Removed by Moderator

Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

To: Kevmo
If the smart money is on Duncan, why isn't it showing up in fundraising?

2008 Presidential Election

Republican Candidates
Candidate Home State Q3 Raised Q3 Spent Raised Spent Cash on Hand Debts

Romney, Mitt

MA

$18,396,719

$21,301,756

$62,829,069

$53,612,552

$9,216,517

$17,350,000

Giuliani, Rudy

NY

$11,624,255

$13,300,650

$47,253,521

$30,603,695

$16,649,826

$169,256

McCain, John

AZ

$5,734,478

$5,470,277

$32,124,785

$28,636,157

$3,488,628

$1,730,691

Thompson, Fred

TN

$12,828,111

$5,706,367

$12,828,111

$5,706,367

$7,121,744

$678,432

Paul, Ron

TX

$5,258,456

$2,169,644

$8,268,453

$2,824,786

$5,443,667

$0

Brownback, Sam

KS

$925,745

$1,278,856

$4,235,333

$4,140,660

$94,654

$0

Tancredo, Tom

CO

$767,152

$1,209,583

$3,538,244

$3,458,130

$110,079

$295,603

Huckabee, Mike

AR

$1,034,486

$819,376

$2,345,798

$1,694,497

$651,301

$47,810

Hunter, Duncan

CA

$536,357

$618,117

$1,890,873

$1,758,132

$132,742

$50,000

Keyes, Alan

MD

$21,218

$10,139

$22,768

$10,139

$12,629

$12,876


Duncan's a great guy and everyone here likes him. But fundraising and grassroots support have to count for something.

FWIW, I don't like Iowa's GOP excluding him or any of the others except Keyes (who got in so late and doesn't have a national campaign) or Dr. Klein (who nobody ever heard of outside of Iowa and also has no national campaign).

Before long, conservatives will have to pick one candidate to defeat the leftwing mayor. To do that, many of us may have to accept our guy can't make it. And I'm not saying that to try to get you to support my guy. I'm saying it because this is about whether the Republican party will remain a conservative party or not. To me, that's more important than any candidate, including my own current favorite.
34 posted on 11/15/2007 4:58:21 AM PST by George W. Bush (Apres moi, le deluge.)
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To: Puddleglum
So now "ties to the military" is a bad thing? Out of touch with the grassroots thinking again. Marxist thinking at it's worst.

We have got to start listening to what the people want or this nomination is going to be split ten ways to Sunday. It's already apparent...the endorsements are scattered to the wind.

Hunter is the only candidate that the base can get excited about in mass. The elitists with their delusional political hierarchy requirement are going to force us to lose.

35 posted on 11/15/2007 5:01:43 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Guenevere
Guenevere I hate to say it, he is not being ignored.

He’s been in the party for a long time, they are not ignoring him, the know him. He’s a great soldier for the cause but unless he can show an ability in the big game, they are not going to promote him over those with a greater range of abilities politically. He’s a great man and a great representative but only a good politician. It’s a political game on the national stage, it takes a great politician or a hell of a lot of luck.

Maybe one day that will change, and we will be better for it, but today is not that day.

36 posted on 11/15/2007 5:02:50 AM PST by ejonesie22 (Real voters in real voting booths will elect FDT.)
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: ejonesie22
"...greater range of abilities politically..."

That's a vague statement...more elaboration is a required. Is it your judgment alone or do you have facts?

38 posted on 11/15/2007 5:16:04 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Earthdweller
Did you get out your home edition of word-twister? No, ties to the miltary industrial gravy train can be a bad thing. Ties to the military and its ethos and spirit of service is an excellent thing. But big military budgets by the Fed Gov are as prone to mismanagement and lobbying shenanigans as any other government spending program.

Military spending is the third biggest line item in the federal budget, after interest on the debt and entitlements. That budget must be carefully managed with an eye to A) taking care of troops during and after their service, and B) ensuring high quality and sufficient quantity in their arms and provisions. It must be protected from undue influence by corporations that would benefit from juicy accounts, whether they delivery quality + value or not.

Military budgets are as susceptible to chicanery as highway funds and Water Resource Development funds.

39 posted on 11/15/2007 5:16:15 AM PST by Puddleglum
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To: Puddleglum
"Military spending is the third biggest line item in the federal budget, after interest on the debt and entitlements."

That is so not correct.

As far as I can tell..you are either carrying the water for Dems or are buying the Koolaide or both. Entitlements have far outpaced any other spending since at least the 60's.

40 posted on 11/15/2007 5:22:35 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: mogambo

Proof????


41 posted on 11/15/2007 5:23:06 AM PST by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter...President '08)
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To: mogambo

“Duncan’s record on spending is abysmal. Simple as that.”

Really? Prove it.


42 posted on 11/15/2007 5:30:32 AM PST by Hunterite
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To: Puddleglum

“Hunter talks a good game, and votes well on many issues dear to social conservatives, but he spends like a beltway boy. In addition, his ties to the military industry would have the media digging out stories like this, and more:”

He gets money from the military industry because he is in the Armed Services Committee. If he were in the Forestry Committee on tree-hugging, he would be getting campaign money from loggers or greenpeace. If you got a problem with the way campaign finance is done, why don’t you join McCain and the rest of the Totalitarians who want to shut down free speech.


43 posted on 11/15/2007 5:33:02 AM PST by Hunterite
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To: Kevmo

Go, Duncan Hunter- the man America needs!

www.gohunter08.com


44 posted on 11/15/2007 5:33:38 AM PST by fetal heart beats by 21st day (Defending human life is not a federalist issue. It is the business of all of humanity.)
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To: Earthdweller
Entitlements have far outpaced any other spending since at least the 60's.

Did anyone say otherwise?

45 posted on 11/15/2007 5:35:21 AM PST by Puddleglum
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To: Kevmo
So when I go vote January 3rd in the Iowa caucus; should I support Hunter (who I like) who only has 4-5% support?

That’s the big question.

The straw poll votes we had here in August didn’t matter as much; but this one picks our party’s nominee for the state.

46 posted on 11/15/2007 5:37:32 AM PST by HereInTheHeartland ("We have to drain the swamp" George Bush, September 2001)
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To: Earthdweller

Here is my left-wing source on federal budgets:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/upload/83722_1.pdf


47 posted on 11/15/2007 5:38:49 AM PST by Puddleglum
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To: Puddleglum

“Did you get out your home edition of word-twister? No, ties to the miltary industrial gravy train can be a bad thing. Ties to the military and its ethos and spirit of service is an excellent thing. But big military budgets by the Fed Gov are as prone to mismanagement and lobbying shenanigans as any other government spending program.”

Yup, the ‘military industrial complex’ has become a political ciche which has negative feelings attached. Mooshy moderates and liberals are cliche-monkeys.

“Military spending is the third biggest line item in the federal budget, after interest on the debt and entitlements.”

Not if you seperate it into Army, Airforce, Marines, Coast Guard spending. Heck lets seperate it down into Armies and Brigades, so its no longer a big number. Christ. Try looking at the percentages of entitlements ADDED TOGETHER IN TOTAL in comparison to other spending.


48 posted on 11/15/2007 5:40:28 AM PST by Hunterite
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To: Hunterite

Only a Dem would be dishonest enough to support Kerry and his fake military record and in the same breath tell us that Hunter can’t win the election because he has been part of the Military.


49 posted on 11/15/2007 5:42:03 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Puddleglum

“Here is my left-wing source on federal budgets:

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Budget/upload/83722_1.pdf";

$305 billion on National Defense, out of $1,862 billion in total. 1/6th


50 posted on 11/15/2007 5:45:35 AM PST by Hunterite
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