Skip to comments.(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
click here to read article
We can increase Hunter’s chances by calling a talk show, and reaching thousands, hundreds of thousands or millions of people, depending on what show we call.
Let’s do it!
Looks like Earthdweller answered pretty good here.
I would add that there is this element to the republican party that is lazy when it comes to name recognition. Because if it’s anything at all about platform, TootyfruityRudy would be at 1% right now and Hunter would be on the top. With an approach like that, you end up with crappy presidents.
, I will fade your Duncan Hunter bet outright and we can skip Intrade’s percentages. Deal?
***No deal, I’m sticking with the better man and the better candidate.
Man, how I wish I were your bookie. Youd be putting my (hypothetical) kids through college.
***Then put your money where your mouth is and go for Fred or Rudy or whoever you support. You probably didn’t read the article.
Never has, never will.
***Then Abraham Lincoln never has been president?
because he has a poor campaign organization
***But the guy we’re comparing him with on this thread had tons of name recognition and look what he has done with it. Hunter’s campaign organization reflects the resources he’s been dealt. Thompson’s does not, he’s had more than a fair chance.
Is there such a person in America today?
***Yes. Just one nod from James Dobson (which wouldn’t cost Dobson a penny, BTW) and he will propel into the first tier. I am disappointed that Dobson has not done so.
Duncan Hunter will not drop out....he will pursue this even though the 'powers that be' continue to ignore & dismiss him....(just as some of you here are doing)
IF they succeed in blocking him...
..I will write in his name on the ballot.
I am sick of the game playing, I am sick of the 'top tier' pretending they speak for me....(they don't)..
I am sick of the lies and the threats.
If Duncan doesn't make it, I am through with politics, because my own Republican Party has managed to instill distrust that few, IF ANY, are honorable and honest anymore.
I will turn my attentions to protecting my family against whatever comes.
“So from your response, are you DEFENDING his votes on these items, or are you saying you just don’t know what they entail, and so can’t defend them until you know what they are for?”
It makes a difference as to the way I summarize these.”
If your going to bash Hunter, its your job to break down his votes into something specific. No I don’t know what those 5 or so votes entail. I don’t know how much “no child left behind” costs. Do you? Duncan wants to abolish the NEA anyways.
Hunter could EASILY be where Huckabee is right now, if he only had the charisma to sway people to vote for him. He doesnt. I think you guys know he doesnt, which is why you all constantly try to browbeat everyone else into supporting him. It doesnt work that way.
***There’s an interesting word, Charisma. Apparently it is worth a bunch in politics because Rudy apparently has it and Huckabee seems to have enough of it to have conservatives overlook their liberal views on certain items. I cannot quantify Charisma, but we may soon know what its value is, if what you say is true. Oh, and I disagree with your contention that the media loves underdogs. The fact that the media hates true conservatives trumps that underdog thing.
You may as well ask if Genghi had ever been Khan. Remember that the formation of the Republican party was a revolution even greater than the one which brought our independence. Do we have that now?
Thompson remains a much better Intrade bet at $6 than Duncan Hunter at next to nothing.
***Thompson’s upside is 20 to 1 if he drops to $5. Hunter’s upside is 40 to 1 if he hits 5%. Hunter’s upside would pay out within the next few weeks, Thompson’s would pay out at the nomination. I would say your analysis is flawed.
but he didnt do what he had to do to be able to operate in the system nationally.
***That gets determined at the nomination.
There is a reason why there is no trade in a Hunter drop-out scenario. Thats because its a dead certian proposition, and there are no takers on the other side of the bet.
***Then suggest the contract to Intrade and browbeat some Hunter followers to put their money where their mouth is. You get a double win if you’re right. But as it is, you are arguing from the silence of the evidence, which is a logical fallacy.
Yeah, all $2,777.80 of it.
***And if Hunter gets to 4% on Intrade, reflecting his current polling status, that would generate $111,112 (minus commission or fees or whatever). Not bad at all.
40 to 1 for Hunter to win the WH? I like those odds. ....a lot better than the Cleveland Browns to win the Super Bowl (also around 40 - 1).
He has no chance. He is a great unknown blessed with talent but devoid of presidential electability.
***Worshipping at the altar of name recognition, the bane of republican existence today. That’s how we ended up with Rudy as the front runner. Thanks but, no thanks.
Nope. They're all behind the globalist China/Nafta/cheeap labor lovers.
Sheesh Kevmo, do you work for Intrade?
I get it, you have posted this ad nauseum and now it deserves its own thread?
***Yep. But the ad nauseam part is off base. I’ve been posting it on Hunter threads, and Fredhead threads on immigration + where Fred’s been Foundering/Floundering. We deserve a better candidate than that.
Fred Foundering, yeah ok fine I think we get it. Bet on Hunter, ok, ok.
***Cool. Glad you got it.
You are overplaying this whole thing. Even if it is worth considering it is becoming harder to take seriously since you post it 50 times a thread.
***No, I was defending it 50 times a thread against a freeper who called me a liar and started stalking me. I changed one part of one sentence in the standard post and it passed muster as “not a lie”. See if you can tell the difference.
Oh, and putting your own post in as an example of post you have been seeing, well I hope you see a post you make...
A vanity indeed...
Yeah right. That is a real scandal there. An underfunded R&D project that is still in the R&D phase.
This is a scandal. And an example of how to waste money.
I broke out the cost for you below. So the next time you hear that Hunter ‘spends’ too much, look at this. It should cure you.
these are the 2 most conservative candidates in the race.
Jim Noble: And therefore the most likely to lose in November.
***Ouch. The republican party continues its centrist march off a liberal cliff with each passing day, even right here on Free Republic. Ouch.
Thanks. I do sincerely hope that Hunter wins the nomination because he would be the best president out of all the contenders.
pissant; Earthdweller ; Hunterite;
for taking that item.
Hopefully puddleglum gets his questions answered.
Freds name recognition will keep him alive until his advertising and debates starts boosting his numbers.
***That’s just it, his debates should have boosted his numbers but once people have taken a look, his numbers have gone down in polls and on Intrade. Hunter’s poll numbers are slowly inching upward and soon Intrade should follow suit.
You're still incorrectly conflating support numbers with probabilities. Even if the obvious 4% outlier were accurate, Hunter still has an approximately zero chance of winning the nomination, as is reflected in his stagnant and marginal "price" on Intrade.
Mogambo: Duncans record on spending is abysmal. Simple as that.
Hunterite: Really? Prove it.
***Thanks for taking that, Hunterite. I have my hands full.
So when I go vote January 3rd in the Iowa caucus; should I support Hunter (who I like) who only has 4-5% support?
Thats the big question.
***Absolutely. Because he is the better man.
The straw poll votes we had here in August didnt matter as much; but this one picks our partys nominee for the state.
***And Hunter deserves that nomination. Look at his record. He’s no johnny-come-lately on the big 3 hot-button items of immigration, WOT, Pro-life. Go with the candidate who reflects your vision of America rather than the MSM’s version of it.
Laura Ingraham was saying the other day that this is the primary time, and it’s time to see what we’re made of.
Conservatives need to FIGHT for the best candidate, DUNCAN HUNTER, or we’re going to end up with a globalist and a candidate that is soft on the life issue.
Duncan Hunter voted AGAINST Permanent Trade with Red China. McCain and Thompson voted FOR it, and now we have an approximately $250 BILLION trade imbalance EACH YEAR with Red China - more money for Red China to buy missles and all kinds of weapons to use against our friends and us some day.
Duncan Hunter has the highest COMMITMENT to the life issue. He introduces the personhood-at-concetion bill each year, and Duncan Hunter and Brownback were the only presidential candidates to attend the pro-life march in Washington, D.C. Where were the others that day?
We get the government we deserve.
Fight for Duncan Hunter with all you’ve got for the sake of our morals and our sovereignty.
You need charisma AND the record to back it up. Rudy doesn’t have both, Romney doesn’t have both, Huckabee doesn’t have both. They’re all missing the record. (Actually, I think Romney is missing both charisma AND a record and Rudy’s charisma is questionable at best.)
Whether you have charisma and a crappy record or a great record and no charisma, you’re still missing 50% of what you need to close the deal.
Think what you want about underdogs, but the media doesn’t pay attention to Hunter because he gives them no reason to.
Thanks, Pistolshot. Your post is a question about the efficacy of the prediction markets so I will copy it over on that thread.
One thing prediction markets are better at their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Only its better than Freds.
I answered your post over on the efficacy thread.
In other words the same people angry at the millions of lives lost in America due to abortion are not willing to stop half of them now and work to stop the other half over the next years. Think of how many abortions would be stopped if the issue went back to the states.
When people question someone who has been staunchly pro life their whole political career because they have a different approach to ending abortion than they do, it frankly makes me sick.
Not according to the National Taxpayer's Union, who consistently scored Thompson higher than Hunter.
I have been moving toward Fred since the debates.
Interesting points. I think Hunterite is well equipped to take them on, I have my hands full.
One minor note on the
03 drug prescription plans,
is that this was a big deal in Floriduh where there are a lot of retirees, and we all know how important that state was in both elections. It’s unfortunate to suggest that some compromises are worth it and some aren’t, but my radar is set to immigration, WOT/Military, Right to Life, protecting American Jobs and Character. The back & forth deals on spending do not interest me as much, so I think it’s good to have that discussion with Hunterite.
Lautenberg Domestic Confiscation gun ban
Certainly the worst sin Thompson has committed against the Second Amendment was voting for this amendment to the aforementioned Treasury-Postal appropriations bill. It removed the right to own firearms from anyone convicted of domestic violence. CAF of course sensationalizes this by stating that spanking your child could cause you to lose your guns. This is an incredible leap considering spanking is legal in all states. While this is a disappointment, no candidate is perfect.
I know. They are mistaken. They consider votes against WTO/NAFTA/PNTR as negatives. And they include defense and border security spending, which should be excluded, but is not.
NEA = National Endowment for the Arts
I just now heard on the radio Bill OReilly ask Ann Coulter who her favorite candidate is.
She said DUNCAN HUNTER, and Ann certainly knows who is the most conservative candidate out there.
Huck has the charisma, but not the record to back it up. Hunter has the record with ZERO charisma. Neither is going to win anything, but charisma goes a long way, which is evident by Hucks rising from the back of the pack.
***The support for Huckabee is coming from frustrated evangelicals. Dobson recently came out vigorously denying that he endorsed Huckabee, and he has been silent on Hunter. Just think if he endorsed Hunter this week.
Jill Stanek: Behind the scenes at FRC Briefing (Family Research Council)
WorldNetDaily ^ | 10/24/07 | Jill Stanek
Posted on 10/24/2007 4:11:29 PM PDT by wagglebee
Generalized outcomes of the meeting:
Most in the room supported Mike Huckabee. A few important figures supported Duncan Hunter.
“You need charisma AND the record to back it up. Rudy doesnt have both, Romney doesnt have both, Huckabee doesnt have both. Theyre all missing the record. (Actually, I think Romney is missing both charisma AND a record and Rudys charisma is questionable at best.)”
Define Charisma. Its not Charisma that is Hunters problem, its name recognition. I’m not looking to vote for someone to throw their shirt off and show me their boobs, i’m voting for someones record.
I have watched Duncan on film and live. He has a command of the facts and the issues that he is strongest in. But he plays too few of them. Watching his debates and such it is China and Immigration almost all the time, with little Iraq tossed in. Important issues yes indeed. But this is not a congressional run, and he sounds like he is running in his district not nation wide. The guys in the big show have to play to a much larger audience than the core of staunch Conservatives. There are fiscal conservatives, social conservatives and the like, plus those in the middle we have to woo. Also there are dozens of issues that concern them.
If the election was just Free Republic or for conservative of the year, Duncan could score that in a heartbeat, but we are too few in number to make that translate into a national win. We have to win over the middle, and they do not want to be preached to, they want to be sold. Duncan is a great conservative preacher, but his sales skills need refining.
Another thing, while I know he has put out statements on his web site and such on a number of issues, he has to actually play on all those issues publicly as much as possible.
Also I have said often that this is a political game and after 27 years in the house Duncan has not really stood out. It is past the time that most politicians who end up as national players have broken out. I am told it is because he "does not bow down" or "does not play politics". Well guess what, the game the left and the middle have brought us is politics, so to win it we have to be in it. Otherwise we are just those whiny folks over on the fringe arguing with the wind.
As far as evidence, it is all simple observation. Where has he been the past 27 years, why has he not gained more notoriety and where is he in the polls after a year of being in the race. Blame the press or whatever, but a politician is responsible for his own destiny as much as anyone. To try and pass it off as some conspiracy or the like does him and his efforts a disservice, because it grants a scapegoat, not a solution, which in the end is what you are after, getting it fixed and moving up to victory.
The age old question. Hunter hasnt been able to generate support. If I vote for him and am with 4% or 5% of the voters, what good does that do? Candidates with that level of support will be gone very soon and your vote will have been wasted.
***No, it would not be wasted. Your voice will not be heard if you do not speak and choose to lend your voice to another because he looks like he has a crowd. Stand strong, use your own voice and ask around to others to see if they think Hunter is a good guy. And read up what the Intrade folks have to say about both candidates. Make your choice wisely, that’s all someone should ask.
The candidates must be able to generate support, good ideas are essential, but good ideas without support do not really mean a lot. Hunters organization at the straw here was embarrassing, it was almost nonexistent. I say the organization, not the candidate.
***I think his organization reflects the current level of assets that he has been dealt. He’s playing the card he’s been dealt and he’s doing it as best he can. Thompson, on the other hand, had a poker hand with 2 pair and broke it up to go after a Straight.
His message is good, he sounds good in the debates.
***Then vote for him. It’s just you in that voting booth.
Posting on internet message boards supporting a candidate is one thing, but actually putting an organization together and getting people to vote for you is another thing entirely.
***You can help here. He needs your support and he will not squander it.
This is for everyone -
You all DO know that McCain is Pro-Life, don’t you??
Oh good grief. I’m talking about a necessary combination of charisma and a record to back it up and you respond by daydreaming about an endorsement that won’t happen and wouldn’t matter a damn if it did.
Huckabee’s support could be frustrated evangelicals, but the reason they are going for Huckabee is because he’s got a personality that draws them to him. He’s good with one-liners, says the right things, and gives very good, rousing speeches. If Hunter did any of that, he would have beaten Huckabee at Ames and would be in the running now.
It’s well beyond the point where a single person’s endorsement can save Hunter’s campaign.