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(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

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To: nurse-rn

We are in total agreement!


341 posted on 12/07/2007 5:05:56 AM PST by Guenevere (Duncan Hunter...President '08)
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To: Mr. Silverback

You’re a bit slow on the uptake here.
***Um, nope. You said you love Duncan, so you’re the one who put your own emotional state up for discussion. I’ll let the Freepers decide which caveat is more applicable here, probably Caveat Freeptor.
caveat emptor “let the buyer beware”; caveat lector “let the reader beware” ; caveat subscriptor “let the signer beware” ; caveat venditor “let the seller beware”; caveat utilitor “let the user beware”

That doesn’t explain why he was languishing in the basement for the six months it took Fred to show up.
***He had low name recognition. Big deal. So did Jimmah carter, Bill Crintoon, heck even Condi Rice before she joined the Bush team. The process itself can generate name recognition. The fact that someone entered the race and occupied some of the same real estate on the ideology scale is very telling in this regard as to why his name recognition didn’t skyrocket like Huckabee’s. And that guy who did come in, the one who had such wonderful name recognition, he squandered it and his poll numbers are dropping and he lost the lead at Intrade, dropping 30 points.

Prediction markets are more accurate than poll results. They can be...
***thanks for that acknowledgement.

You’re not asking me to believe a prediction market that has Hunter as the GOP nominee. You’re asking me to believe that your personal prediction of a Hunter surge is accurate. I think you’ll agree that’s a far more dicey proposition.
***Wow, it took this long for someone to realize this interesting point. Good for you. However, the market itself is the indicator here, not you nor me. And after I posted my article, that number has moved to 28930 from 27778. Then we started to see evidence of manipulation with large blocks of shorting interest which would not pay off unless they weren’t subject to commissions, which is more likely to happen in a high “coefficient of static friction” candidate than a candidate contract which is much more liquid.

Possible examples of Intrade political data being manipulated
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/1855.page

So the action moved to the contract 2008.PRES.FIELD (where Hunter is still embedded) and there has been some high volume on that contract. So the market believes the analysis. And I’m not even sure it would qualify as a “surge” to say that Hunter could make it to 4% at Intrade, when Huckabee and Ron Paul both did so after their poll results were at that stage as well. The dicieness of the proposition is that Hunter’s contracts would move upward in the same way that Huckster’s and Paulertariat’s did. I notice that it’s folks who have a vested interest in seeing Hunter go away that like to emphasize how this proposition is “Far More” dicey than it is on its face. The market, though, isn’t as emotional as you, and it has heard what you have to say contrasted with what I have to say and it has already begun to speak.


342 posted on 12/07/2007 12:53:26 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
The market, though, isn’t as emotional as you, and it has heard what you have to say contrasted with what I have to say and it has already begun to speak.

Ok, yeah, it must be that I'm emotional. [snicker!] Thanks for the psych eval.

Not a thing you've posted here has even chipped away at this statement: "Throughout those six months he had a wide open shot at the title of 'electable conservative' and he did little to nothing with it."

If Hunter had run a smart (or even competent) campaign, he would have been the clear conservative frontrunner and been in a position to not only keep that after Fred got in, but more likely to give Fred a reason to sit the race out. Blame Thompson all you want, if Hunter had done his job Thompson would not have even been an item of discussion. SUSSA is 100% dead on with this analysis.

Hunter will not be the nominee. He will not win Iowa. If I am wrong about that we are in very real trouble, because his general election campagn will be the same disaster his primary campaign has been.

343 posted on 12/07/2007 1:34:10 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: nurse-rn
I am with you all the way. My family will also write his name in, if we have to. I am believing God to do a mighty work.

What about the way Hunter has run his campaign so far convinces you that he can win the Presidency? I mean, I count on God for miracles all the time, but He isn't going to violate the free will of tens of millions of voters, so there has to be a campaign of some sort.

344 posted on 12/07/2007 1:45:32 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Earthdweller; Clara Lou
Do you seriously think that the people get to pick the candidates?

If you really, truly believed that, you would be training a militia. Are you?

345 posted on 12/07/2007 1:49:34 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Hunter needs a wealthy benefactor. Someone motivated entirely by patriotism and good sense. Is there such a person in America today?

Hold on a minute. Do you remember how in the 2000 and 2004 campaigns GWB had tens of thousands of middle class donors giving $50 or $100 while Gore and Kerry had a much smaller donor base that gave much larger donations?

If we've all bee looking for a conservative in this race, why hasn't Hunter been able to tap that group? He can't get mailing lists from conservative organizations and ask us for money? He doesn't need a right wing George Soros any more than Bush did...and don't bother telling me it's different because Bush is rich. You don't need to be rich to do good fundraising.

346 posted on 12/07/2007 1:53:43 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network; pissant
Hunter needs a wealthy benefactor.

Hey pissant, how much money you got? I've got $38 in my wallet, let's start with that. :)

347 posted on 12/07/2007 1:57:07 PM PST by GOP_Raider ("Thanks, Mike." -Lane Kiffin)
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To: perfect_rovian_storm
They’d gladly pay attention to Hunter in a second if he gave them something worth paying attention to. He hasn’t.

And since the media thinks that independent voters dislike real conservatism, and that there's really no such thing as a Reagan Democrat anymore, there really wouldn't be any reluctance on their part to talk about him. They would think he was scary, not appealing.

348 posted on 12/07/2007 1:57:08 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

Not a thing you’ve posted here
***Thanks for continuing to bump this thread. Of course, you’re wrong, but thanks for continuing.

Ok, yeah, it must be that I’m emotional. [snicker!]
***You’re the one who posted, “I love Duncan...”

Not a thing you’ve posted here has even chipped away at this statement: “Throughout those six months he had a wide open shot at the title of ‘electable conservative’ and he did little to nothing with it.”
***He was an underdog. The thing I posted was: big deal. So, once again, you’re wrong. This underdog was a lot like McClintock before the Hollywood hopeful entered the race. Later on it was realized that McClintock had been gaining in the polls and would have beat Bustamonte. But the republican party was so starstruck by the name recognition behind aRINOld that they started fawning over him and ignored the conservative. Republicans are like that when it comes to name recognition. Look at your own focus on it.

If Hunter had run a smart (or even competent) campaign, he would have been the clear conservative frontrunner
***I agree. But fred entered before Hunter could gain that momentum.

and been in a position to not only keep that after Fred got in, but more likely to give Fred a reason to sit the race out.
***And we’re just beginning to see evidence of that recovery now. Thompson supporters are telling Hunter supporters that they need to follow Thompson because his poll results are higher, even though Hunterites weigh conservatism and pro-life in higher regard than polls. And Thompson followers tell Huckabee followers that they need to follow someone who’s more conservative, even though Hucksterites obviously don’t regard conservatism in the same weight as Pro-life & poll results. In essense, they are asking both camps to hold in high regard what they already hold in low regard. They are between a rock and a hard place. Hunter is better than Thompson on issues, and Huckabee is better than Thompson on polls. Thompson is a loser — losing 30 points on Intrade after having that much name recognition means he is a lousy campaigner.

Blame Thompson all you want,
***Blame. Funny how it’s the Thompson supporters that jump to the conclusion on using that word. Why don’t you go and blame Hucksterbee for stealing all the pro-life wind out of Thompson’s sails, since you’re so focused on blame?

if Hunter had done his job Thompson would not have even been an item of discussion. SUSSA is 100% dead on with this analysis.
***Simple. Hunter would have gained enough name recognition by now to be the front runner. And Fred is running high at Intrade for the contract of likely to Drop Out for a reason.

Hunter will not be the nominee.
***We saw the same crystal ball approaches from folks saying Huckster wouldn’t be the nominee, but now he beats your guy in the polls.

He will not win Iowa. If I am wrong about that we are in very real trouble, because his general election campagn will be the same disaster his primary campaign has been.
***As a party, we ARE in trouble. We have allowed a cross-dressing, NAMBLA-parading, open-borders, gun-grabbing socialist to be the front runner. Hunter is the best man in the race and we need to coalesce behind him.


349 posted on 12/07/2007 8:24:20 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

If we’ve all bee looking for a conservative in this race, why hasn’t Hunter been able to tap that group?
***Because, similar to what has happened here on Free Republic, the support drifted over to the name recognition conservative. But that support is not deep. Thompson’s promise was that by this time in the race he’d be kicking tootyfruityrudy to the curb, but instead he’s whining about Huckabee and barely beats Ron Paul at Intrade. The bible says something about “to whom much is given, much is required” and the parable of the talents shows that bigger results are expected from those to whom more is given. Thompson was given name recognition and money and the result is dropping polls and losing 30 points at Intrade. Time to give those resources to someone who has been much more frugal with what’s been given to him: Hunter.


350 posted on 12/07/2007 8:29:17 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
I agree. But fred entered before Hunter could gain that momentum.

Excuses, excuses. What you're basically saying here is that Hunter can only make the case that he's an electable conservative candidate if everybody else will just stay out of his way. Why should anyone back a guy who can't convince the conservatives in his party that he's worth voting for? He couldn't even do it when he was the only conservative running. How's he supposed to convince independents and Reagan Dems he's worth voting for in the general?

Hunter is the best man in the race and we need to coalesce behind him.

Hunter is the best man in the race ideologically...but ideology only wins elections when an electable candidate is the one carrying the banner. If we're going to pick ideologically great guys who can't win elections, then we should all just agree to write in Rush Limbaugh, he at least has some name recognition.

351 posted on 12/07/2007 9:12:46 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Kevmo

I love Duncan Hunter. I was suprised that he didn’t rise in the polls. I looked around awhikle and landed on Romney. I wish Duncan had this manner and delivery. Unfortunately America is going to vote for the one who has the charisma they desire. I find that in Romney.

I am sure this is distasteful to those who support Hunter, but these are the facts.


352 posted on 12/07/2007 9:20:10 PM PST by TheLion (How about "Comprehensive Immigration Enforcement," for a change)
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To: Kevmo
Time to give those resources to someone who has been much more frugal with what’s been given to him: Hunter.

So, to review, your plan is to take conservative support from the guy who is heading for the basement after a couple of months, and give it to a guy who has been in the basement since the day before Halloween in 2006. Why, that's...


Brilliant!

353 posted on 12/07/2007 9:21:36 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback
I recently spoke to a (Republican) friend of mine who lives in Hunter's district and she didn't even know he was running for Prez! ....so yeah, he's had a problem getting the word out, to put it mildly.

Congressmen are at a distinct disadvantage anyway. When's the last time a 'critter won the GOP nomination? Been at least a few decades.

I'll be voting for Hunter if he's still on the ballot when it's time for my state primary (which is down the road a bit), but at this point it doesn't look promising.

354 posted on 12/07/2007 9:22:33 PM PST by Mr. Mojo
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To: TheLion
Be careful, Kevmo will take your profession of love for Hunter as an emotional schoolgirl crush instead of approval for his policies.

I wanted Hunter to be President, be he hasn't caught fire and now I'm undecided. Right now I think Fred is great but also needs to catch fire, Romney stinks but can get elected, and Rudy and Huckabee are horror shows.

355 posted on 12/07/2007 9:25:16 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback
It's odd that you assume a militia is the only way to combat corruption in our government/media. I doubt that narrow view has a place in reality at this point in time.

It would be interesting to hear from Hunter about whether he requested the support of the conservative organizations you pointed out to see if he was actually retarded enough to fail to contact them. If that's the reality then I will eat my hat.

More than likely the big party Gop within made the decision about who to back prior to him asking for support.

356 posted on 12/07/2007 9:29:40 PM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Mr. Mojo
I'll be voting for Hunter if he's still on the ballot when it's time for my state primary (which is down the road a bit), but at this point it doesn't look promising.

Same here...Illinois' primary never picks the nominee, so I can't harm an electable candidate by showing support for Duncan.

357 posted on 12/07/2007 9:33:55 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Earthdweller
It's odd that you assume a militia is the only way to combat corruption in our government/media. I doubt that narrow view has a place in reality at this point in time.

It is an appropriate response when someone has taken away the right to a meaningful vote in a Republic. The Founders rebelled over less. But, let's say you're right, and I'm way off. Martin Luther King Jr. dealt with a situation where a substantial portion of the population had their civil rights taken away, including any meaningful right to vote. So I guess my question is, when will we see you getting sprayed with a fire hose and attacked by dogs?

It would be interesting to hear from Hunter about whether he requested the support of the conservative organizations you pointed out to see if he was actually retarded enough to fail to contact them. If that's the reality then I will eat my hat.

Make sure you have some A-1 sauce handy, because you're going to need it if anyone asks him that. I get mail from Focus on the Family and NRLC all the time, and I haven't seen a single piece of mail from Hunter. Granted, Focus may not give those lists to political groups, but I think you get my point. Have you received any campaign fundraising material from him?

More than likely the big party Gop within made the decision about who to back prior to him asking for support.

Yep. Well, if you believe that, you should be out in front of RNC HQ singing "We Shall Overcome." Dress warm.

358 posted on 12/07/2007 9:48:29 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback
Pretty sarcastic remarks about getting involved from the guy who sat in his cozy chair and pinged me to go out to meet the Westboro goons. While I was holding my little ˜God Bless the troops" signs, while getting filmed by the media, it never accured to me that I might get "hosed" by the very person who first told me about it and launched my late life activist carrer. Thanks.

Funny, but I never saw you at any of the DC rallies. Maybe you are too busy attending secret meetings and dogging the CIA cameras. :)~~

At any rate, your points about Duncan not getting press are moot. Everyone on FR knows that the media has been pushing Rudy. Probably most of America knows it by now. But go ahead and make the point that the media and the conservative groups have have been "fair" to Ducan. I won't stop you.

359 posted on 12/08/2007 9:44:29 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

Hunter is the best man in the race ideologically...but ideology only wins elections when an electable candidate is the one carrying the banner.
***This is the crux of the matter. It’s why we have the guvernator aRINOld instead of Tom McClintock. You’re fond of pointing out excuses, what are the excuses for the fact that someone who is basically diametrically opposed to our platform is the frontrunner? Where’s all the aRINOld supporters who pushed around the McClintock followers here on FR? They’re off somewhere pushing their favorite RINO, and that is what has happened to this party.

Look no further than the mirror for the reason, Mr. Quick-to-Blame. And as far as “everybody else will just stay out of his way” I’m only saying that Hunter would get the traction if Thompson got out of his way, just like McClintock would have won if aRINOld wasn’t in his way.

Why do you expend so much effort on some candidate who’s supposedly going nowhere? I never spent any time on a Tommy Thompson nor Brownback thread because they were truly going nowhere. But Hunter has his own special peanut gallery of supposed conservatives who look for any reason to talk down about him. Courage-free conservatism doesn’t work for me.


360 posted on 12/09/2007 7:34:07 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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