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(vanity) Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
Self ^ | 11/11/07 | Kevmo

Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo

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To: Kevmo
I agree. But fred entered before Hunter could gain that momentum.

Excuses, excuses. What you're basically saying here is that Hunter can only make the case that he's an electable conservative candidate if everybody else will just stay out of his way. Why should anyone back a guy who can't convince the conservatives in his party that he's worth voting for? He couldn't even do it when he was the only conservative running. How's he supposed to convince independents and Reagan Dems he's worth voting for in the general?

Hunter is the best man in the race and we need to coalesce behind him.

Hunter is the best man in the race ideologically...but ideology only wins elections when an electable candidate is the one carrying the banner. If we're going to pick ideologically great guys who can't win elections, then we should all just agree to write in Rush Limbaugh, he at least has some name recognition.

351 posted on 12/07/2007 9:12:46 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Kevmo

I love Duncan Hunter. I was suprised that he didn’t rise in the polls. I looked around awhikle and landed on Romney. I wish Duncan had this manner and delivery. Unfortunately America is going to vote for the one who has the charisma they desire. I find that in Romney.

I am sure this is distasteful to those who support Hunter, but these are the facts.


352 posted on 12/07/2007 9:20:10 PM PST by TheLion (How about "Comprehensive Immigration Enforcement," for a change)
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To: Kevmo
Time to give those resources to someone who has been much more frugal with what’s been given to him: Hunter.

So, to review, your plan is to take conservative support from the guy who is heading for the basement after a couple of months, and give it to a guy who has been in the basement since the day before Halloween in 2006. Why, that's...


Brilliant!

353 posted on 12/07/2007 9:21:36 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback
I recently spoke to a (Republican) friend of mine who lives in Hunter's district and she didn't even know he was running for Prez! ....so yeah, he's had a problem getting the word out, to put it mildly.

Congressmen are at a distinct disadvantage anyway. When's the last time a 'critter won the GOP nomination? Been at least a few decades.

I'll be voting for Hunter if he's still on the ballot when it's time for my state primary (which is down the road a bit), but at this point it doesn't look promising.

354 posted on 12/07/2007 9:22:33 PM PST by Mr. Mojo
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To: TheLion
Be careful, Kevmo will take your profession of love for Hunter as an emotional schoolgirl crush instead of approval for his policies.

I wanted Hunter to be President, be he hasn't caught fire and now I'm undecided. Right now I think Fred is great but also needs to catch fire, Romney stinks but can get elected, and Rudy and Huckabee are horror shows.

355 posted on 12/07/2007 9:25:16 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback
It's odd that you assume a militia is the only way to combat corruption in our government/media. I doubt that narrow view has a place in reality at this point in time.

It would be interesting to hear from Hunter about whether he requested the support of the conservative organizations you pointed out to see if he was actually retarded enough to fail to contact them. If that's the reality then I will eat my hat.

More than likely the big party Gop within made the decision about who to back prior to him asking for support.

356 posted on 12/07/2007 9:29:40 PM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Mr. Mojo
I'll be voting for Hunter if he's still on the ballot when it's time for my state primary (which is down the road a bit), but at this point it doesn't look promising.

Same here...Illinois' primary never picks the nominee, so I can't harm an electable candidate by showing support for Duncan.

357 posted on 12/07/2007 9:33:55 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Earthdweller
It's odd that you assume a militia is the only way to combat corruption in our government/media. I doubt that narrow view has a place in reality at this point in time.

It is an appropriate response when someone has taken away the right to a meaningful vote in a Republic. The Founders rebelled over less. But, let's say you're right, and I'm way off. Martin Luther King Jr. dealt with a situation where a substantial portion of the population had their civil rights taken away, including any meaningful right to vote. So I guess my question is, when will we see you getting sprayed with a fire hose and attacked by dogs?

It would be interesting to hear from Hunter about whether he requested the support of the conservative organizations you pointed out to see if he was actually retarded enough to fail to contact them. If that's the reality then I will eat my hat.

Make sure you have some A-1 sauce handy, because you're going to need it if anyone asks him that. I get mail from Focus on the Family and NRLC all the time, and I haven't seen a single piece of mail from Hunter. Granted, Focus may not give those lists to political groups, but I think you get my point. Have you received any campaign fundraising material from him?

More than likely the big party Gop within made the decision about who to back prior to him asking for support.

Yep. Well, if you believe that, you should be out in front of RNC HQ singing "We Shall Overcome." Dress warm.

358 posted on 12/07/2007 9:48:29 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback
Pretty sarcastic remarks about getting involved from the guy who sat in his cozy chair and pinged me to go out to meet the Westboro goons. While I was holding my little ˜God Bless the troops" signs, while getting filmed by the media, it never accured to me that I might get "hosed" by the very person who first told me about it and launched my late life activist carrer. Thanks.

Funny, but I never saw you at any of the DC rallies. Maybe you are too busy attending secret meetings and dogging the CIA cameras. :)~~

At any rate, your points about Duncan not getting press are moot. Everyone on FR knows that the media has been pushing Rudy. Probably most of America knows it by now. But go ahead and make the point that the media and the conservative groups have have been "fair" to Ducan. I won't stop you.

359 posted on 12/08/2007 9:44:29 AM PST by Earthdweller (All reality is based on faith in something.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

Hunter is the best man in the race ideologically...but ideology only wins elections when an electable candidate is the one carrying the banner.
***This is the crux of the matter. It’s why we have the guvernator aRINOld instead of Tom McClintock. You’re fond of pointing out excuses, what are the excuses for the fact that someone who is basically diametrically opposed to our platform is the frontrunner? Where’s all the aRINOld supporters who pushed around the McClintock followers here on FR? They’re off somewhere pushing their favorite RINO, and that is what has happened to this party.

Look no further than the mirror for the reason, Mr. Quick-to-Blame. And as far as “everybody else will just stay out of his way” I’m only saying that Hunter would get the traction if Thompson got out of his way, just like McClintock would have won if aRINOld wasn’t in his way.

Why do you expend so much effort on some candidate who’s supposedly going nowhere? I never spent any time on a Tommy Thompson nor Brownback thread because they were truly going nowhere. But Hunter has his own special peanut gallery of supposed conservatives who look for any reason to talk down about him. Courage-free conservatism doesn’t work for me.


360 posted on 12/09/2007 7:34:07 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: TheLion

Unfortunately America is going to vote for the one who has the charisma they desire. I find that in Romney.
***At least you can express what is important to you in a candidate, though it does not seem all that quantifiable. Romney’s support is drooping in Iowa, where he seems to have outspent Huckster by 10 to 1 and yet Huckster is coming from nowhere to take him on. If Huckster the “prolife liberal” can do it, Hunter can do it.


361 posted on 12/09/2007 7:36:15 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

So, to review, your plan is to take conservative support from the guy who is heading for the basement after a couple of months, and give it to a guy who has been in the basement since the day before Halloween in 2006.
***Then you agree that your guy is heading for the basement, even though he’s been given all these resources. Look at how Huckster’s doing in Iowa, smoking Romney who outspent him by a wide margin. And Huckster is beating your basement guy, so as long as both are supposedly in the basement we might as well coalesce behind the stronger conservative.


362 posted on 12/09/2007 7:38:13 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Romney leads in 10 of 15 current polls in Iowa. I don’t think he “drooping” quite that much.


363 posted on 12/09/2007 7:44:03 PM PST by TheLion
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To: Mr. Silverback
Be careful, Kevmo will take your profession of love for Hunter as an emotional schoolgirl crush instead of approval for his policies.
***You have to admit it's the strangest phenomena in politics to see such professions of "endearment" and they're so quickly followed by the "but". When we joined FR we didn't give a hoot about polls, we all thought the best social conservative deserved our support. FR has been overtaken by poll worshippers.

Look! A poll showing your guy gaining the lead in Rhode Island!
Conservative taking lead in Rhode Island Poll

364 posted on 12/09/2007 7:44:20 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Good grief.....Hunter is a great Congressman who has NO Management Experience....hence NO WAY JOSE!


365 posted on 12/09/2007 7:45:31 PM PST by Ann Archy (Abortion: The Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: TheLion

Romney leads in 10 of 15 current polls in Iowa. I don’t think he “drooping” quite that much.
***OK, Mr. Poll Worshipper, take those 10 polls and measure how far Romney was ahead of Huckster a month ago, two weeks ago, and today. That’s the definition of droop.

Polls are interesting, but it’s the DELTA in the polls that tells the real stories. And futures markets have emerged as better indicators than polls anyways, which is why you are even on this thread.

And the DELTA in Intrade over the last few days shows Huckster blowing Romney out of the water. If Huckster can do it, Hunter can do it.

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 70.0 75.9 70.0 762 +4.4
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 22.3 32.8 23.3 733 -6.9


366 posted on 12/09/2007 7:52:03 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Ann Archy

He’s the best conservative in the race.

He was the chairman of the defense appropriations committee, which is about half a $trillion with a T big. That’s more management experience than most others.

Put your support behind the guy who would make the best president.


367 posted on 12/09/2007 7:54:40 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Since the left is pushing Huckabee, we will have to wait and see who actually votes. Huck will have a real problem in more conservative states.

Should Mitt get any bounce from his speech, that will take another week.

We are only in the first inning.


368 posted on 12/09/2007 7:55:45 PM PST by TheLion
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To: Kevmo

I realize all that....BUT HE HAS NO EXPERIENCE IN RUNNING ANYTHING...other than a COMMITTEE!! Do you NOT see the folly in your support!! It’s like you would nominate the JANITOR because he’s conservative and keeps the roof from leaking!! Good Grief, man....MANAGEMENT EXPERIENCE....or do you think that’s not needed?????


369 posted on 12/09/2007 7:58:29 PM PST by Ann Archy (Abortion: The Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: TheLion

It’s the evangelicals who are lining up behind Huckster. If his campaign implodes, support would land on Hunter.

Jill Stanek: Behind the scenes at FRC Briefing (Family Research Council)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1915901/posts

crossref: Dobson and 50 evangelical leaders


370 posted on 12/09/2007 8:11:22 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Ann Archy

Um, I thought Abe Lincoln was a good president.

By your measure, you’d be knocking out one of the greatest presidents. Do you not see your own folly?


371 posted on 12/09/2007 8:13:08 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

ping


372 posted on 12/09/2007 8:14:55 PM PST by GOPPachyderm
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To: Kevmo

I am a proud Romney supporter....who do you support?


373 posted on 12/09/2007 8:16:44 PM PST by TheLion
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To: TheLion

Thanks for the softball. I support the best conservative in the race, Duncan Hunter.

If the liberal evangelical Huckabee can take the lead from out of nowhere, so can Hunter the true conservative evangelical.


374 posted on 12/09/2007 10:23:29 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

Posted as a snapshot after the Univision debate.

Fred really doesn’t have much room to maneuver, either. By hedging on Federalism for abortion and the 14th amendment on immigration, he alienates conservatives. He’s basically asking conservatives to care about poll results and liberal poll worshippers to care about conservatism.

Thompson is currently trading at 1.5 on Intrade to win the Iowa caucuses, just 0.4 ahead of the field (Hunter).

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 70.0 75.7 70.0 762 +4.4
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 22.3 32.6 23.3 733 -6.9
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M 0.4 2.4 1.5 375 -0.3
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.1 1.6 0.5 130 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.5 4.0 1.5 215 0
REP.IOWA.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.HAGEL
Chuck Hagel to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 1.1 4.4 1.1 241 0

All In (Fred Thompson moves to Iowa)
Weekly Standard ^ | 12/7/07 | Stephen Hayes

Posted on 12/08/2007 4:06:27 PM PST by cotton1706

Des Moines, Iowa FORMER TENNESSEE SENATOR Fred Thompson has decided to take his campaign and virtually all of its resources to Iowa in an all-or-nothing attempt to register a strong showing in the caucuses here on January 3.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1936775/posts?page=83#83


375 posted on 12/09/2007 10:43:46 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo
It's pretty pretentious of you to do the following:

1. Call me a poll worshipper at all, when my clear and oft-stated aim is to keep a proven Marxist moron out of the Oval Office.

2. Call me a poll worshipper, when you're basically doing the same thing, only using prediction markets instead of polls.

Nice try.

376 posted on 12/10/2007 9:55:47 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Kevmo
You look like a real joke talking all that smack to a guy who made a speech at an Alan Keyes rally in October of '04.

I alos love how every time somebody tries to convince people backing a clear also ran (Hunter, Paul, etc.) that they should help get behind a winning candidate with conservative values (such as Thompson) they all yell, "Why are you wasting time on a guy that can't win?" Apparently y'all never ask yourselcves that question...

377 posted on 12/10/2007 9:59:05 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Kevmo
You look like a real joke talking all that smack to a guy who made a speech at an Alan Keyes rally in October of '04. I literally laughed out loud when I got to the part where you called my brand of conservatism "courage free." Get over yourself.

I also love how every time somebody tries to convince people backing a clear also ran (Hunter, Paul, etc.) that they should help get behind a winning candidate with conservative values (such as Thompson) they all yell, "Why are you wasting time on a guy that can't win?" Apparently y'all never ask yourselves that question...

378 posted on 12/10/2007 10:01:10 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (Support Scouting: Raising boys to be strong men and politically incorrect at the same time.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

1. Call me a poll worshipper at all, ***If you read the post carefully, you’ll see that I stopped short of calling you in particular a poll worshipper, mainly because I have so much respect for your previous postings on FR. I say that FR has been overtaken by poll worshippers. If you’re one of them, then you deserve the monicker.

If your “clear and oft-stated aim is to keep a proven Marxist moron out of the Oval Office” then you should be happy, because some recent poll showed that the 5 main candidates in the GOP all can beat the hildebeast. That’s been my contention all along, that hillary is eminently beatable, especially if we nominate a true conservative and the MSM goes into liberal slathering mode. Anyone can beat her. Anyone.

only using prediction markets instead of polls.
***It’s very simple. Prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than polls. The main argument against backing the best conservative in the race has been poll results. My approach is an effective counterargument.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts


379 posted on 12/11/2007 9:54:00 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Mr. Silverback

I notice you didn’t answer the questions. You’re fond of pointing out excuses, what are the excuses for the fact that someone who is basically diametrically opposed to our platform is the frontrunner? Where’s all the aRINOld supporters who pushed around the McClintock followers here on FR? Why do you expend so much effort on some candidate who’s supposedly going nowhere?

“Why are you wasting time on a guy that can’t win?” Apparently y’all never ask yourselcves that question...
***That’s not the question I ask. The question I ask and you need to answer is, “what is the best evidence that someone is a lousy campaigner?” If it’s poll results, then shouldn’t the GOP drop the campaigner when the poll results fall dramatically? When we throw tons of resources onto a candidate who has good name recognition and a defensible conservative record but end up with drooping poll results and a 30 point drop at Intrade, it is evidence that he is a lousy campaigner. When Huckabee pulls into the lead in Iowa beating Romney who has outspent him 10 to 1 or so, it’s a sign that Huckabee is a good campaigner. Our resources need to go to the good, pro-life campaigners. The GOP has never given much in terms of resources to Hunter. It has given such resources to a squanderer.


380 posted on 12/11/2007 10:01:55 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

My take. Republicans will win with a mixed bag conservative in 08 or lose because the country still has a thing for big government. Its what got Bush elected and its simply doesn’t turn off enough people to Hillary or Obama. Its not Hunter’s time. I hope he takes it in 2012 or 2016.


381 posted on 12/12/2007 11:21:10 AM PST by Delacon (“The attempt to make heaven on earth invariably produces hell " Karl Popper)
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To: Delacon; All

Here are the new Intrade results after the debate.

For the first time there has been a measurable change for DUNCAN HUNTER, doubling in price and showing a major jump embedded in Iowa.Field with a 3.3 point jump.

Duncan Hunter Won the debate. Huckabee Lost.

And, since this is going to be controversial, I will point out that I’ve been logging onto several prior debate threads where I analyzed the changes in Intrade results from the debates, and usually before it was Huckabee who won.

2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
Old Price … New Price… Change

2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 41.1 41.1 No chg
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 20.2 21.4 +1.2
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 17.8 18.0 +0.2
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 9.2 9.2 No chg
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 5.0 6.0 +1.0
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) 5.1 5.0 -0.1
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1 0.2 +0.1

Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus

Old Price … New Price … Price Change
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win 72.5 70.8 -1.7
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win 25.1 25.1 No chg
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win 1.5 1.5 No chg
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win 0.4 2.5 +2.1
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win 0.5 1.7 +1.2
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win 1.1 4.4 +3.3

The smart money really IS on Duncan Hunter.

.

.

.

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts


382 posted on 12/12/2007 2:26:19 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: All

Posted as its own thread.

According to Intrade, the winner of today’s GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts


383 posted on 12/12/2007 11:43:47 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo; All

Here’s a snapshot from Intrade. There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa.

For the Iowa caucus, Thompson is at the bottom of the pack, Romney has regained the lead from Huckabee. Ron Paul and Hunter are both embedded together, so there’s no way of knowing if he’s gaining ground, but on the basis of the president.field contract moving 50% today, I’d say he’s probably at ~0.3 and Ron Paul is at ~4.8, which puts Hunter ahead of Thompson.

Caucus
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 45.0 46.0 45.0 1690 +5.0
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 40.2 54.9 50.0 1960 0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 0.1 1.4 0.1 642 -1.4
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.6 4.4 0.2 860 -2.8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M - 0.1 0.1 701 0

REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 4.7 5.9 4.8 1384 +1.0

2008.PRES.FIELD
Field (any other candidate) to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 0.2 0.3 0.2 14910 +0.1

.

.

.

.

According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts

Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts

In this Iowa poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd
Reply to this


384 posted on 12/31/2007 1:47:54 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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