Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll
Posted on 11/15/2007 8:05:25 AM PST by eastsider
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Rudy Giulianis national lead growing in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 28% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while four other candidates are bunched in a virtual tie for second place. Mitt Romney earns 13% of the vote. John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mike Huckabee each attract 11%. Ron Paul's is the top choice for 6% and no other Republican candidate reaches 2% (see recent daily numbers).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Rudy seems to be pulling away with no one stepping up offering a real challenge yet.
Someone is going to have to generate some momentum in the first few primaries if they hope to knock Rudy off.
Rudy’s still stuck somewhere around 30%. IMO, the problem isn’t lack of challengers, it’s too many challengers.
Over the long run, Willard’s support is like a sine wave, ranging from about 10 to 16.
This may turn ugly for Conservatives, we are just so darn split up right now.
Conservatives may be better served watching the Senatorial and House races, as it would seem we don’t have anyone really moving up to carry the Conservative banner in the POTUS primaries.
I hope today’s result portends a continued and well-deserved decline for Mitt.
Obviously all those Rudy supporters will have to be purged from the party. Didn’t they get the memo several people on FreeRepublic disapprove.
Good news for Rudy. Today there is also a poll showing that Rudy leads Hillary in Nevada too.
I like Romney, but a Democrat insider said that all of the Dem. candidates want to run against him in the general, because he would be easier to beat. They are scared of Rudy. Maybe polls like these show why they are scared.
Fred’s percentage today still includes two days of pre-endorsement numbers. If nothing else, the fact that his percentage hasn’t dipped below Tuesday’s 11% indicates that his campaign has successfully staunched the bleeding.
I heard the first radio ad that Rudy has put out - he states what NYC was like in 1992 and then the changes he brought and the positive growth and improvements NYC has achieved through his leadership. Like him or not, it doesn’t A) mention 9/11 B) lists real achievements and C) sends a very positive, upbeat message for hope and growth.
Mitt’s supporters seem to be purging themselves, bulimic Republicans that they are.
Fred is still at 11%, Hahahhaa, some great conservative hope.
Juan seems to have topped out.
Rasmussen and Zogby were on Hannity’s radio show last week talking about a 3-4 day lead time before current events show in the polls. We probably won’t see any significant changes until maybe tomorrow or Monday after the weekend digestment.
As is said in surgery, All bleeding eventually stops..
Theoretically, if Rudy G wins, which conservative will he pick to be VP to try and make a peace offering? I am having a hard time figuring that one out as well.
Correct. the truth is that it’s really a race between many pro-life and one pro-abortion candidate.
When the 2nd tier pro-life candidates exit the race, they will poll for the remaining pro-lifer/s and not for Rudy.
When it comes down to Rooty911 vs. Thompson, Huckabee, McCain or Romney, Rooty will not do so well.
We probably wont see any significant changes until maybe tomorrow or Monday after the weekend digestment.Exactly. On yesterday's thread, I said I expect to see a seven-percentage-point increase in Fred's numbers by Monday, back up to 18%.
The operation was a success, the patient died : )
Or maybe we should let the liberals have the Republican party, and the conservatives can move to another. It wouldn't be long until the Republican party ceased to exist.
I have to admit I’m worried.
I worry about the ignorance of voters, and I worry about the stupidity of the Republican Party pros. The country clubbers are still in charge of the party, and they only give in to the conservative voters when the conservative voters manage to get their act together and force them to.
May the best man win. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always happen that way. Of course the MSM will do their best to muddy the waters and push impossible candidates like Huckabee, to ensure that the conservative base doesn’t coalesce behind the best candidate available.
The MSM can’t prevail if people really wake up. But I don’t think that has happened yet. Let’s hope it does, before it’s too late.
I give the guy credit for sticking it out through the dark days of summer when we were all writing him off. Still, I can’t see his pulling off an upset because he simply doesn’t have that kind of money.
McCain has spent more but has less cash on hand than Fred. Romney has spent a ton, has about 2 million more than Fred on hand, and is carrying big time debt. Huckabee has less than a million cash on hand. Fred is in a pretty good spot to begin a break out among the group which is statistically tied.
Rudy is rolling in cash and Fred will need support to mount the fight, so those of us who support him should send what we can.
>>>Theoretically, if Rudy G wins, which conservative will he pick to be VP
I had been thinking Thompson but he fizzled. Gov Barbour perhaps. You know, the governor who actually dealt with Katrina rather then hiding under the bed and blaming Bush.
Correct. The Rasmussen numbers have 26 points "unaccounted for." That is nearly a tie for first place. It is certainly enough to dust Rooty. Looking at the trends since Oct 1, it does not appear as though Juan or Mitt are going much of anywhere which leaves Duncan and Mike. And Mike looks like he has topped out too. Fred has dropped about 10 points but if he keeps presenting solid solutions to the issues of the nation that 10 will come back.
The key is that 26 points out there. About 10 is spread out among the second tier but "undecided" has been steady at about 16 points. That 16 points is what Fred needs. Also, that 16 points are folks that are waiting for something that they have not gotten yet. His spot-on correct solutions to the issues should do it for them.
The country clubbers are still in charge of the party, and they only give in to the conservative voters when the conservative voters manage to get their act together and force them to.Agreed, and we saw an example of that recently during the illegal immigration debate. Would that we could muster that kind of unity in the primary race. Without it, we're stuck with Rudy.
This makes my point again and again. Republicans get NOWHERE by attacking each other. The key to success is to attack Hillary. He who does that most, best, and most often, wins.
And the NRLC endorsement seems to have done nothing for Fred’s support level.
I have heard many FREEPERS saying that endorsements don’t change people’s minds so this is not surprising. People have their candidate in mind already. Unless someone falls out I think that for the most part people’s minds are made up.
Rudy’s ceiling is 30%. That’s it.
I wondered where Spiff's chart was this morning.
These numbers are indicative of where the Country actually is at the moment.
The GOP knows this, and that’s why they have “anointed” rooty...they want ANYONE in the Oval office, as long as that person has an (R) in front of their name. And, to be sure, rooty most represents what the left and the RINO’s have done to our Country.
This is the reason I say if we don’t have a true Conservative, like Thompson or Hunter, as the nominee, I won’t vote. Period. I have my own mailing list, and I encourage those on that list to do likewise, as I encourage other FReepers to.
We need to stand up for our principles, or fall with them, but not give in to the socialist leaning, liberal compromising, anti-American, self serving POS’s of this world.
We need no better example than that of California to see what happens when RINO’s are elected under the tent of the GOP.
The GOP needs to support US, not the other way around.
If my Country is to be run further into the ground and the abyss that is liberalism, let it be a Dummie that does it, not an f’n RINO that further ruins the virtues, and taints the name, of Conservatism.
The Country has been scared into a compromised position by the left and the RINO’s. Conservatives are in the closet now, they’ve been vilified so much, so often, by so many.
We have to sell Conservatism all over again.
Also, since all of these flucuations are within the margin of error (11%-13%) do you factor that in also?
Thanks, math and statistics have never been my strong suit.
I think it's more likely that the 17% number was an outlier -- Weyrich's tantrum wouldn't have had enough time to make that big of an effect, and Romney occassionally hit's 17% only to rapidly drop back to 13-14%, so he tends to get a few positive outliers from time to time (I have yet to determine a pattern).
Enjoy you newfound gaiety while you can. Remember, a smile is just a frown, turned upside down!
Maybe I should have added that the alternative is to break with the party and start a new one.
But it would be better to continue working on changing the party if we possibly can, offering them victory if they cooperate with us. Starting up a new party wouldn’t be easy. It does happen, but only rarely. Usually you just get something marginal, like the Greens or the Libertarians.
If Rudy wins the nomination, however, there may be no other choice. I really hope that doesn’t happen. Starting new and pure and conservative may be appealing, but it may also prove impossible unless everything falls out in such a way that there’s no other course.
For instance, who would lead this new party? Who has the charisma, the connections, the moneyed friends? Not easy, unless there is no other choice.
No, not really. Many other polls have had him around 36% or so-—quite a bit considering there are a half-dozen solid competitors. And when you look at the state-by-state SurveyUSA polls that show him whipping Hillary in OH, FL, NM, GA, KS, and tied in WI and within three in CT, then it’s pretty impressive. (Mitt and Fred aren’t within 3 points of Hillary in any of these states except GA and KS, although McCain does better than anyone in all of them.)
We have to sell Conservatism all over again...
And the buyers are fickle and easily scared...
Because the daily tracking poll covers four days's results, in order to be at 18% by Monday, Fred either would have to poll 18% each day for the next four days, or to average 18% over the next four days (i.e., Thursday through Sunday).
I'm counting heavily on the margin of error : )
Of course it’s not enough time for that kind of effect. It’s just that Team Mitt had their noses so bent out of shape yesterday over Weyrich’s tantrum that I couldn’t help but take another jab. Chalk up my comment to a cruel sense of humor.
I agree Barbour is a good Gov. and a good choice, but I think they’ll be afraid the media will spin him as a “Boss Hogg” southern governor with his accent and all. I know its stupid, but you just know the idiots in the media will play that angle up. They’ll try to make him out to be a reincarnation of a Confederate General or something.
Ticks me off just thinking about it.
Mark Sanford. Bet on it.
Then why the DROP in Fred's support? And why the large numbers of undecided?
“If” Rudy is nominated, the phrase “I will not vote for Guiliani” will be read here over and over again.
To then expect those same people to vote for Senate or House candidates from the homes they are avoiding the polls from is not reality....
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