Posted on 11/19/2007 1:56:44 PM PST by Spiff
WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.
The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire between Wednesday and Sunday. Pollsters surveyed 404 Republican voters for the survey, which had a sampling error of 5 percentage points.
[SNIP]
Thompson's negatives have grown sharply since he entered the race. In July, a CNN/WMUR poll of New Hampshire Republicans found 30 percent would not support him "under any circumstances" — but in the new poll, that figure grew to 50 percent.
McCain's rating on the same question declined from 38 percent to 29 over the same period; Romney's showed a slight increase, from 17 percent to 19; and the number of people who said they could not support Giuliani on any terms grew from 22 percent to 28.
Thompson skids while Romney, Paul climb in N.H. poll
CNN
19 November 2007
(Excerpt) Read more at politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com ...
• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •
What has Fred done with all the positive spotlight and name recognition? He has squandered what was once the lead on Intrade and lost ~30 points coming in behind McCain, R Paul and Huckabee. 30 Points! That is evidence that he’s a real lousy campaigner. Fred is also losing ground in the polls. In that same time period, Hunter has been slowly inching upward in the polls and now his contracts have started to move at Intrade. The market smells a bargain for Hunter’s futures contracts.
Hunter is the better man and now he’s emerging from Fred’s shadow as the better campaigner.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
Hahahaha! Spiff, you are soooo predictable! Fred isn’t heavily invested in New Hampshire. He’s looking towards South Carolina, Florida nad other early Southern primaries. Nice try.
It’s NH - I don’t care.
Fred’s going to win Iowa and SC. He doesn’t need NH.
Nice try?! Predictable??! I simply posted the results of a poll that has just been released. You guys are truly getting desperate...
That's not smart, imho. Fred is running third in South Carolina, fourth in Florida, third in Nevada, fourth in Michigan, etc.
When other people win Iowa and New Hampshire (my guess is Romney will win both), the resulting momentum won't help Thompson climb out from the pack.
New Hampshire’s like Guam right? Do they even get delagates?
If so, he's going to have to start moving up asap. Iowa is January 3rd, and Fred's 16 points behind front runner Romney, behind Huckabee and Rudy and nearly tied with McCain.
That’ll remain to be seen.
Romney’s been mail-bombing New Hampshire, so his distinction from Fred’s disregard of NH is much to be expected.
I got a call from Romney’s campaign last night, he’s going to be in Amherst, NH this week.
Spiff is posting a straight news story about a poll. He didn't write the headline, or the article.
What exactly is Spiff supposed to be trying here anyway?
he was reincarnated in the form of Ron Paul
Romney 2008! Because he’s a bit better than Rudy.
I don’t really know about anyone else, but I don’t care what Intrade has to say.
What does that have to do with the common, ordinary, garden variety Republican Base Primary Voter?
Almost absolutely nothing!
Mitt Romney = Paul Tsongas ‘08
(For those who don’t remember, Tsongas was the Massachusetts Dem. who won over Bill Clinton and the rest of the pack in the 1992 New Hampshire primary. )
Harkin won Iowa, Tsongas won New Hampshire. Tsongas’ win was written off because he was judged to be practically a favorite son as a Massachusetts pol is very familiar to NH voters. Romney’s lead can be written off in the same way. He remains stuck at 11-12% nationwide. Mr. “$50-abortion” Romney, like Tsongas and Romney’s dad, George, will be the answer to a trivia question before long.
The picture show cases the problem with the republican party RINOS!
Romney 2008!
Because if the base doesn’t like what he stands for today, he will change tomorrow!
No need for core convictions.
He is the Bob Dole of 2008!
I guess old Fred is trying to use the rope-a-dope strategy. I hope they remember to wake him up and push up to a microphone when it is time for him to make his acceptance speech! (Not!)
When a buffoon like paul beats you in the polls thats bad
Thompson’s strategy never depended on Iowa or New Hampshire. It depends almost totally on South Carolina and other Southern states.
New Hampshire is meaningless for the GOP. McCain won it in 2000, and see where that got him.
He already is.
Romney 2008! Because he’s prettier than all the other candidates except for Edwards.
“Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter”
Ya know, I can understand promoting your candidate...but you Hunter guys are beginning to sound like Ron Paul’s people.
“Fred’s going to win Iowa and SC. He doesn’t need NH.”
He’s not going to win Iowa either, but he never thought he would. The real race begins starting with South Carolina. That’s where the GOP race has really begun the past 3 or 4 election cycles.
Must be something in the air...
even Ron Paul could do better against the Hitler....
Too bad on the National level that Mitt still is in third place.
Fred Thompson will never recover from a defeat to Ron Paul in New Hampshire. I was just watching an interview with Karl Rove on cspan and he was saying that Bush dropped 10 points in South Carolina after finishing second in New Hampshire. If Thompson finishes in sixth place he will simply not be considered a serious contender by the time South Carolina comes around. If he can’t beat an antiwar moonbat in a republican primary he won’t inspire a lot of confidence that he is the best man to face the Beast. He’ll be out of the race by mid January.
Good strategy to try to associate that good man -- but hapless candidate -- Bob Dole, with the surging leader in this race.
But it won't work. The comparison between Dole and Thompson is so obvious and the comparison that you suggest is absurd: Dole and Thompson -- too old, too laconic, too lacking in energy, past their time.
Romney is not the perfect candidate but he is dynamic, energetic, intellectually alive and ready to lead the country.
Fred is the exact opposite of all those things. Sorry, no one could foresee what a complete dud he would be as a candidate (although a prudent person would not have chugged the whole pitcher of Kool-Aid without a little more than a wish and a hope).
What does that have to do with the common, ordinary, garden variety Republican Base Primary Voter?
***Intrade starts from the base polling data and has an additional Qualitative and Quantitative angle to it.
Here’s how I would look at it. The price someone is willing to pay for a futures contract would have maybe 5 elements: Current Poll Support + Financial Support + Followers’ Energeticism + Media Buzz + Campaign Ability. Let’s use the respective Acronyms CPS + FS +FE + MB +CA. I’m sure there are more. When you look at Ron Paul’s Intrade elements, his CFS was ~3%(???notsure); FS was low then in one day, high — and notably here on Intrade that was treated with a yawn; FE is very high; MB was kind of high for such a low polling candidate; CA was probably high, though I was not following his campaign. All that translated into a trading price in the 9’s, and Delphi felt compelled to ask why. Huckabee’s CPS was kind of low; his FS was medium; FE was medium; MB was Medium; CA was pretty high, he’s an engaging speaker and campaigner. That translated into an Intrade value that was higher than the poll numbers at the time, if I recall correctly. Here’s where I see Hunter: CPS low; FS low; FE very high; MB low; CA about medium. It all translates into a completely stagnant Inprice value, which looks like it is in the midst of changing upward.
Going on poll results is not based upon a presumption any more than one would presume that 5 cards dealt in a poker game have the same odds as 5 cards dealt to someone else. Hunter would need to go from 4% to 5%. What are those chances? I would put them at about 2 to 1. So I would be taking a 2-to-1 bet to gain a 40-to-1 contract. That’s a great bargain. It’s like poker, when the pot odds are way above your hand odds.
When Hunter gets to 0.2, the pot odds go to 20-to-1 payout, and at 0.4 it’s 10-to-1, at $3 it’s 3-to-4 payout. The RATIONAL approach is to gauge what you think are his chances of Intrade meeting the poll support against the current “pot odds”. But the irrational approach is when I’m a Hunter supporter, I see his chances of getting to 5% in the polls and being invited to the Iowa debate as less than 1-to-1, maybe 1-to-1.5. That means I consider a $4 price to still be a bargain, and there are plenty of Intraders out there who probably think it would be a good time to sell. That’s the beauty of the market. Eventually the folks who think a $10 price for Hunter when he’s polling 5% ( basically 1-to-2 emotional hand odds) are very few, and they buy only a few contracts and the price tends to stabilize around an agreed median between the two camps.
The interesting thing about the elements CPS + FS +FE + MB +CA is that they are constantly dynamic. When we see someone trading above their polling numbers like Ron Paul was, it’s an indicator that the other elements are high, and when we see them trading below the polling numbers the reverse is true. In Thompson’s case it is a blinking red light because he has plenty of money, media buzz (he’s a hollywood pro), FE seems about medium or high. That means his CA score is Very Low, or there is some other element in my goofy equation that is bringing down his score here at Intrade.
And when you consider the Intrade data side by side with poll data it tells some very interesting stories, such as that Ron Paul is trading higher at Intrade than polls. Earlier that was reasons for suspicion that the market was being manipulated by Paulestinians, but then when he got his $4M in one day, it was greeted with a yawn at Intrade and everyone else was surprised. Intrade now has Fred way below the polling data, which is an indication that they do not have confidence in his ability to campaign.
Some House Backers of Thompson Are Starting to Lose the Faith
CQ POLITICS ^ | 19 November 2007 | Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1927960/posts
Posted on 11/19/2007 10:22:45 AM PST by Alter Kaker
One thing prediction markets are better at — their only bias is whether someone can make money trading the futures contracts.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ | November 8, 2007 | Brad Warbiany
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
Posted on 11/08/2007 12:21:43 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
He’s not going to win Iowa either, but he never thought he would.A strong showing in Iowa is almost as good as a win, and Fred has just dumped a boatload of advertising money in Iowa for that very reason.
"I am the GOP's own 'Clinton'. The DNC LOVES me."
James Carville: "It's a feel-good story, this Romney thing. Romney is an ascendant guy."
Hunter is the better man and now he’s emerging from Fred’s shadow as the better campaigner.
However the article points out that Hunter hasn’t been doing that well either. <.005% isn’t something to be taking to the bank to try and win the GOP nomination with.
..... the former chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, had the support of fewer than half of 1 percent......
Rasmussen has had Romney in 2nd place for 7 of the last 9 days. He's even tied for second in today's poll.
Fred Thompson will never recover from a defeat to Ron Paul in New Hampshire.As if Romney would. LOL! The better Ron Paul does in New Hampshire, the more irrelevant the state becomes. Run, Ron, run!
What part of posting straight news story is promoting a candidate? If Thompson drops in a poll, FR should remain blissfully ignorant?
If so, would you please clarify the new rules.
Do you figure the Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll should only be posted on those days in which FDT goes up a tick? If he goes down a point, then the poll should not be posted?
Ya know, I can understand promoting your candidate...but you Hunter guys are beginning to sound like Ron Paul’s people.
***No, it’s just me. Pissant has been suspended and no other Hunter supporter seems to be all that interested in the Intrade data except for the fact that there is the possibility that a person could make money while supporting their candidate at the same time. That’s actually unique in history, barring bribery and political patronage.
See for yourself that I have restricted activity to threads where it discusses Immigration, pro-life, and the Fredfall in the polls for the most part.
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Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
Posted on 11/15/2007 3:43:17 AM PST by Kevmo
I don't mind people taking a reasonably optimistic view of their man's position. But the piffle you write is moronic. Enjoy yourself...it must be comforting to be able to completely invent a personal "reality" that you find pleasing. Enjoy your world.
It’s NH, nobody cares.
However the article points out that Hunter hasn’t been doing that well either. <.005% isn’t something to be taking to the bank to try and win the GOP nomination with.
***That suggests to me that the article was written at least a month ago.
Here’s a recent poll showing Hunter at 4%.
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28889/republicans_2008_giuliani_28_thompson_19
Pissant had another one before he was suspended, but I don’t know where it is for the moment.
To true believers, there is no objective reality.
I agree with that portion of your analysis.
Nice try Serg.
About the only “True Believers” are the RP folks...
Given the national polls and endorsements of late, I would not count Fred out yet...
It is all of that, the polls, news and such and who posts them, as well as the follow up posts.
The point remains, you guys are “conservatives” working hard supporting a moderate at best.
It is just very interesting.
It not only is good strategy, it is the truth.
The old and tired thing is what his enemies want to get out there. You can’t even say it is subjective, because that would imply some type of sincerity on the part of the person who is stating such nonsense.
On the other hand, my analogy had nothing to do with age ( since even Ronald Reagan was older than Fred when he took office) but with what is most important with conservatives, historical positions on issues.
Dole is famous for uttering a statement that “he could be anything you want me to be. I can be conservative” towards conservatives during his candidacy. This statement all by itself doomed Dole.
Romney has the same proclivity, given his ever shifting 180 degree shifting on his positions on issues most dear and important to conservatives to include the following:
1. 2nd Amendment
2. Abortion
3. Gay Rights.
Romney’s record is only slightly better than Rudy’s.
If it were in support of a consrtavitve it would be one thing, but such attitude supporting Mitt on a Conservative site is misplaced at best.
Look, people. A strategy that relies on Southern states works fine in the general election where EVs are winner take all.
It does not work fine when delegates are split. Romney is unfolding as formidable with Iowa, NH, at least 3rd in SC and maybe better, a probable 1st in Michigan and then moving forward from there. It is delegate lead that is going to determine news stories, and more importantly, how many staff are being paid to plant those stories.
When fundraising dries up because delegate count is not there, you simply can’t run a campaign. Without money your message does not get out. That’s just the way it is.
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