Skip to comments.Live Thread: Australian Federal Election Count
Posted on 11/23/2007 10:55:46 PM PST by naturalman1975
In about minutes, polling booths across the eastern side of Australia will close, and counting will begin in the 2007 Australian election. I - and anybody else - who wants to become involved - will be posting in this thread updates based on Australian TV concerning the count.
The polls over the last year have been suggesting Labor under Kevin Rudd will win this election, ending John Howard’s 11 year period as Prime Minister (Australia’s second longest serving Prime Minister) and 11 years of government by the Liberal/National Coalition. Over the last week, and the last day or so, polls have started suggesting the result will be much closer, and that the election is winnable by the Coalition. But we basically have to wait and see. Polls can be right. They can be very wrong.
I don’t know how long I going stay up but I check out election
HEY MAN Aussie Age wire has coveage from Sky news Austrila right now on their site
Here’s the situation.
Australia has two Houses of Parliament - the House of Representatives and the Senate. All House seats have gone to the polls today in a general election, and the government is the party or coalition of parties that controls the House of Representatives, and their leader is the Prime Minister.
There are 150 seats, so winning 76 seats means you can govern in your own right.
There are three main parties - two of these, the Liberals and Nationals are in coalition - they are the current government and are conservative. The opposition is Labor.
There are minor parties, but to determine government, we look at these three.
Polls are now closed on the east coast, and counting has begun.
Thanks for posting... past bedtime over here, will check out in the morning.
Exit polls suggest a swing to Labor - Labor needs a swing of greater than 4%.
OH I SEEE
You are right if turn out PM Howard may have lost their election that sucks
I tell you one thing I think history would judge PM Howard less harsh than his own people on war on terror
Kevin Rudd on course for comfortable win, according to ALP strategists and early exit polling.
John Howard bump!
Prior to this election, the Coalition held 88 seats (75 Liberal, 13 National), Labor 60, with 2 independents.
Labor therefore needs to gain 16 seats to win.
Been eyeballing events as reported at Tim Blair’s blog today.
Sounds close from what folk have been saying so far.
We’re just waiting now for early numbers.
I said on a previous thread that my gut feeling was that the Libs would loose 20+ seats.
I really hope that Labor will fall short but I’ve got a really bad feeling about this one.
I’m not game to make a prediction at this point, so I won’t challenge yours. Of course, I hope you’re wrong.
Are you in Usidedownlandia, The Oz now?
Yes, posting from just outside Melbourne. I’m in the currently Liberal electorate of Dunkley, held by the Minister for Veteran’s Affairs, Bruce Bilson.
Very cool. I must admit, I still flinch when I read “Liberal”. That’s just hard to get over.
Looks like the first polling place has counted, LOL.
Liberal/National Coalition 375 71.56 +0.26
Australian Labor Party 149 28.44 -0.26
This website was last published at 24/11/2007 6:18:09 PM
Blair just posted this link:
Andrew Bolt calls it for Labor via exit polls.
Bolt has been calling it for Labor for weeks. He’s pretty much given up. He could be right. But that’s the context.
Ignore early exit polls, according to 2004 early exit polls John Kerry is US president today.
Winston Churchill was bounced by English people right after he saved England and helped win WW2, for not much more of a reason that they wanted to put bad memories behind them, start anew and be entertained. Let’s hope and pray that John Winston Howard and his Liberal Party keeps governing majority.
If election is close it may come down to the less populated western part of Australia. How is it usually leaning and any indication on the mood there now? Thanks.
Good to know. I don’t read much of Bolt so had no context.
There are three main opinion polls. Two day its too close to call, one gives it to Labor.
First figures are showing fairly large swings to Labor in a number of seats including Braddon.
As at 6:29:14 PM.
Australian Labor Party
First figures suggest Liberals retain McMillan.
Braddon, Labor ahead but still in doubt.
Robertson, Lib ahead, but still in doubt.
Dobell, Labor ahead.
Bennelong (the Prime Ministers own seat and a marginal) first results suggest no swing.
Looks like the liberal/national coalition is leading by your numbers, just shy of a 2-1 margin, 62%-38%? Is this a good sign? What does the swing % mean?
It’s better than being behind, but these early results are predominantly coming from places that are fairly safe for the Liberals and Nationals.
The swing - basically, it’s how much the vote has changed since the last election. Labor is looking for a swing of over 4 or 5% in their favour to win, currently it is getting less than that, but it’s really too early to say much.
Someone explained their preference voting to me earlier today and I think I can answer your swing question.
The swing percent is how far a drop bear would fly if launched from a trebuchet with a counter weight equaling the difference in weight of the primary ballot stacks counted so far.
Their process is kind of confusing to me, so I could well have that part wrong.
It's too early yet to draw any conclusions. The % swing is the change for/against since the last election.
What is the latest update?
Bennelong (PMs seat) - 10% swing to Labor, which would remove the PM, but on early figures. Not being called yet.
Flinders - (Liberal currently) - swing to Labor, but Liberals should retain.
Gilmore (Liberal currently) - in doubt.
Corangamite (Liberal currently - marginal). In doubt.
Bass (Liberal currently - very marginal). In doubt.
What is the latest update?
Exit Poll: Howard Loses Oz Election
Updated:07:07, Saturday November 24, 2007
Australian Prime Minister John Howard has lost his bid for a fifth successive term in power, a Sky News Australia exit poll predicts.
PM confident as he votesThe Conservative leader has been in power for 11 years, but was trailing in opinion polls behind opposition Labour leader Kevin Rudd.
The result will be revealed in the next few hours.
The Sky exit poll of 31 marginal government seats forecast a 30-seat gain for Rudd, more than enough for him to form a Government.
The exit poll of 2,787 voters by Auspoll gave Labour 53% of the vote and the ruling Liberal party 47%.
“Its very likely that Labor has won this election. Something in the order of 30-odd seats,” said Auspoll’s John Armitage.
Liberal/National Coalition 38,378 57.81 -1.68
Australian Labor Party 28,011 42.19 +1.68
As at 6:48:14 PM.
Australian Labor Party
Is this like the exit polls that were saying Kerry Wins?
Polls have closed in Queensland. Kevin Rudd’s home state, and where Labor hopes for major gains.
At 6:59:15 PM
ABC numbers currently.
The sample of the exit polls is not large enough. Remember the exit polls said Kerry was going to win in 2004.
The swing is showing as +3.69 Labor atm at Virtual Tally Room.
It was as low as +1.60 Labor but was bouncing around the 2.ish area for a long time.
At 7:01:40 PM
At 7:03:16 PM.
Braddon (marginal Liberal) - Labor ahead, but still in doubt.
Patterson (Liberal) - Liberal ahead,but still in doubt.
Parramatta (Labor, but nominally Liberal due to redistribution) - Labor ahead.
North Sydney (Liberal) - Liberals ahead.
ABC current computer prediction.
Channel 9 current computer prediction.