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Live Thread: Australian Federal Election Count
24th November 2007

Posted on 11/23/2007 10:55:46 PM PST by naturalman1975

In about minutes, polling booths across the eastern side of Australia will close, and counting will begin in the 2007 Australian election. I - and anybody else - who wants to become involved - will be posting in this thread updates based on Australian TV concerning the count.


TOPICS: Australia/New Zealand; Breaking News
KEYWORDS: australia; australianelection; johnhoward; kevinrudd; rudd
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1 posted on 11/23/2007 10:55:48 PM PST by naturalman1975
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To: naturalman1975

The polls over the last year have been suggesting Labor under Kevin Rudd will win this election, ending John Howard’s 11 year period as Prime Minister (Australia’s second longest serving Prime Minister) and 11 years of government by the Liberal/National Coalition. Over the last week, and the last day or so, polls have started suggesting the result will be much closer, and that the election is winnable by the Coalition. But we basically have to wait and see. Polls can be right. They can be very wrong.


2 posted on 11/23/2007 10:57:45 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

I don’t know how long I going stay up but I check out election

HEY MAN Aussie Age wire has coveage from Sky news Austrila right now on their site


3 posted on 11/23/2007 10:58:17 PM PST by SevenofNine ("We are Freepers, all your media belong to us, resistence is futile")
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To: naturalman1975

Here’s the situation.

Australia has two Houses of Parliament - the House of Representatives and the Senate. All House seats have gone to the polls today in a general election, and the government is the party or coalition of parties that controls the House of Representatives, and their leader is the Prime Minister.

There are 150 seats, so winning 76 seats means you can govern in your own right.

There are three main parties - two of these, the Liberals and Nationals are in coalition - they are the current government and are conservative. The opposition is Labor.

There are minor parties, but to determine government, we look at these three.


4 posted on 11/23/2007 11:00:28 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Polls are now closed on the east coast, and counting has begun.


5 posted on 11/23/2007 11:01:14 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Thanks for posting... past bedtime over here, will check out in the morning.


6 posted on 11/23/2007 11:01:39 PM PST by OCC
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To: naturalman1975

Exit polls suggest a swing to Labor - Labor needs a swing of greater than 4%.


7 posted on 11/23/2007 11:01:59 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

OH I SEEE

You are right if turn out PM Howard may have lost their election that sucks

I tell you one thing I think history would judge PM Howard less harsh than his own people on war on terror


8 posted on 11/23/2007 11:02:59 PM PST by SevenofNine ("We are Freepers, all your media belong to us, resistence is futile")
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To: naturalman1975

http://www.theage.com.au/
Kevin Rudd on course for comfortable win, according to ALP strategists and early exit polling.

;o(


9 posted on 11/23/2007 11:03:59 PM PST by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: naturalman1975

John Howard bump!


10 posted on 11/23/2007 11:04:26 PM PST by OCC
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To: All

Prior to this election, the Coalition held 88 seats (75 Liberal, 13 National), Labor 60, with 2 independents.

Labor therefore needs to gain 16 seats to win.


11 posted on 11/23/2007 11:09:17 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Been eyeballing events as reported at Tim Blair’s blog today.

Sounds close from what folk have been saying so far.


12 posted on 11/23/2007 11:12:22 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: Grimmy

We’re just waiting now for early numbers.


13 posted on 11/23/2007 11:14:57 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

I said on a previous thread that my gut feeling was that the Libs would loose 20+ seats.

I really hope that Labor will fall short but I’ve got a really bad feeling about this one.


14 posted on 11/23/2007 11:15:29 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: Dundee

I’m not game to make a prediction at this point, so I won’t challenge yours. Of course, I hope you’re wrong.


15 posted on 11/23/2007 11:16:21 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Are you in Usidedownlandia, The Oz now?


16 posted on 11/23/2007 11:17:28 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: Grimmy

Yes, posting from just outside Melbourne. I’m in the currently Liberal electorate of Dunkley, held by the Minister for Veteran’s Affairs, Bruce Bilson.


17 posted on 11/23/2007 11:19:02 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Very cool. I must admit, I still flinch when I read “Liberal”. That’s just hard to get over.


18 posted on 11/23/2007 11:20:33 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: naturalman1975

Looks like the first polling place has counted, LOL.

Liberal/National Coalition 375 71.56 +0.26
Australian Labor Party 149 28.44 -0.26

This website was last published at 24/11/2007 6:18:09 PM
From: http://vtr.aec.gov.au/


19 posted on 11/23/2007 11:22:05 PM PST by Tex_GOP_Cruz
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To: naturalman1975

Blair just posted this link:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/election_07_the_results_come_in/

Andrew Bolt calls it for Labor via exit polls.


20 posted on 11/23/2007 11:22:54 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: Grimmy

Bolt has been calling it for Labor for weeks. He’s pretty much given up. He could be right. But that’s the context.


21 posted on 11/23/2007 11:24:26 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Ignore early exit polls, according to 2004 early exit polls John Kerry is US president today.

Winston Churchill was bounced by English people right after he saved England and helped win WW2, for not much more of a reason that they wanted to put bad memories behind them, start anew and be entertained. Let’s hope and pray that John Winston Howard and his Liberal Party keeps governing majority.

If election is close it may come down to the less populated western part of Australia. How is it usually leaning and any indication on the mood there now? Thanks.


22 posted on 11/23/2007 11:26:28 PM PST by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
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To: naturalman1975

Good to know. I don’t read much of Bolt so had no context.


23 posted on 11/23/2007 11:27:21 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: CutePuppy

There are three main opinion polls. Two day its too close to call, one gives it to Labor.


24 posted on 11/23/2007 11:27:35 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

First figures are showing fairly large swings to Labor in a number of seats including Braddon.


25 posted on 11/23/2007 11:31:38 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

As at 6:29:14 PM.

Liberal/National Coalition
Votes: 4,269
Percent: 61.57%
Swing: -2.90%

Australian Labor Party
Votes: 2,665
Percent: 38.43%
Swing: +2.90%


26 posted on 11/23/2007 11:32:47 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: All

First figures suggest Liberals retain McMillan.
Braddon, Labor ahead but still in doubt.
Robertson, Lib ahead, but still in doubt.
Dobell, Labor ahead.


27 posted on 11/23/2007 11:37:53 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

Bennelong (the Prime Ministers own seat and a marginal) first results suggest no swing.


28 posted on 11/23/2007 11:39:56 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: Dundee

Looks like the liberal/national coalition is leading by your numbers, just shy of a 2-1 margin, 62%-38%? Is this a good sign? What does the swing % mean?


29 posted on 11/23/2007 11:40:31 PM PST by rawhide
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To: naturalman1975
Marginal seat count link
30 posted on 11/23/2007 11:41:15 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: rawhide

It’s better than being behind, but these early results are predominantly coming from places that are fairly safe for the Liberals and Nationals.

The swing - basically, it’s how much the vote has changed since the last election. Labor is looking for a swing of over 4 or 5% in their favour to win, currently it is getting less than that, but it’s really too early to say much.


31 posted on 11/23/2007 11:42:27 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: rawhide

Someone explained their preference voting to me earlier today and I think I can answer your swing question.

The swing percent is how far a drop bear would fly if launched from a trebuchet with a counter weight equaling the difference in weight of the primary ballot stacks counted so far.

Their process is kind of confusing to me, so I could well have that part wrong.


32 posted on 11/23/2007 11:45:16 PM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: rawhide
Looks like the liberal/national coalition is leading by your numbers, just shy of a 2-1 margin, 62%-38%? Is this a good sign? What does the swing % mean?

It's too early yet to draw any conclusions. The % swing is the change for/against since the last election.

33 posted on 11/23/2007 11:46:35 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: Dundee

What is the latest update?


34 posted on 11/23/2007 11:48:21 PM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: naturalman1975

Bennelong (PMs seat) - 10% swing to Labor, which would remove the PM, but on early figures. Not being called yet.
Flinders - (Liberal currently) - swing to Labor, but Liberals should retain.
Gilmore (Liberal currently) - in doubt.
Corangamite (Liberal currently - marginal). In doubt.
Bass (Liberal currently - very marginal). In doubt.


35 posted on 11/23/2007 11:49:29 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: MinorityRepublican

What is the latest update?


Exit Poll: Howard Loses Oz Election
Updated:07:07, Saturday November 24, 2007

Australian Prime Minister John Howard has lost his bid for a fifth successive term in power, a Sky News Australia exit poll predicts.

PM confident as he votesThe Conservative leader has been in power for 11 years, but was trailing in opinion polls behind opposition Labour leader Kevin Rudd.

The result will be revealed in the next few hours.

The Sky exit poll of 31 marginal government seats forecast a 30-seat gain for Rudd, more than enough for him to form a Government.

The exit poll of 2,787 voters by Auspoll gave Labour 53% of the vote and the ruling Liberal party 47%.

“Its very likely that Labor has won this election. Something in the order of 30-odd seats,” said Auspoll’s John Armitage.


36 posted on 11/23/2007 11:49:53 PM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: MinorityRepublican

Liberal/National Coalition 38,378 57.81 -1.68
Australian Labor Party 28,011 42.19 +1.68


37 posted on 11/23/2007 11:50:24 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: MinorityRepublican

As at 6:48:14 PM.

Liberal/National Coalition
Votes: 32,835
Percent: 58.74%
Swing: -1.99%

Australian Labor Party
Votes: 23,068
Percent: 41.26%
Swing: +1.99%


38 posted on 11/23/2007 11:50:52 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: All

At 6.54pm.

Coalition 3.
Labor 0.
Unknown. 147.


39 posted on 11/23/2007 11:55:21 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

At 6.57.

Coalition 3
Labor 2
Uncalled 145


40 posted on 11/23/2007 11:58:31 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: Senator Goldwater

Is this like the exit polls that were saying Kerry Wins?


41 posted on 11/23/2007 11:58:45 PM PST by Brimack34
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To: naturalman1975

Polls have closed in Queensland. Kevin Rudd’s home state, and where Labor hopes for major gains.


42 posted on 11/23/2007 11:59:27 PM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

At 6:59:15 PM

Coalition 4.
Labor 3.
Unknown. 143.


43 posted on 11/23/2007 11:59:49 PM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: naturalman1975

ABC numbers currently.

Lib/Nat 35
Labor 26
Other 1


44 posted on 11/24/2007 12:00:13 AM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: Senator Goldwater

The sample of the exit polls is not large enough. Remember the exit polls said Kerry was going to win in 2004.


45 posted on 11/24/2007 12:01:41 AM PST by MinorityRepublican
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To: naturalman1975

The swing is showing as +3.69 Labor atm at Virtual Tally Room.
It was as low as +1.60 Labor but was bouncing around the 2.ish area for a long time.


46 posted on 11/24/2007 12:03:49 AM PST by Grimmy (equivocation is but the first step along the road to capitulation)
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To: naturalman1975

At 7:01:40 PM

Coalition 5.
Labor 2.
Independent 1.
Unknown. 142.


47 posted on 11/24/2007 12:04:00 AM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: naturalman1975

At 7:03:16 PM.

Coalition 8.
Labor 3.
Independent 1.
Unknown. 138.


48 posted on 11/24/2007 12:06:02 AM PST by Dundee (They gave up all their tomorrows for our today's.)
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To: naturalman1975

Braddon (marginal Liberal) - Labor ahead, but still in doubt.
Patterson (Liberal) - Liberal ahead,but still in doubt.
Parramatta (Labor, but nominally Liberal due to redistribution) - Labor ahead.
North Sydney (Liberal) - Liberals ahead.


49 posted on 11/24/2007 12:07:18 AM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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To: naturalman1975

ABC current computer prediction.

Coalition 35.
Labor 26.
Other 1.

Channel 9 current computer prediction.

Coalition 18.
Labor 8.
Other 0.


50 posted on 11/24/2007 12:09:18 AM PST by naturalman1975 ("America was under attack. Australia was immediately there to help." - John Winston Howard)
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