The New, Suddenly Correct, NIE on Iran

Flopping Aces ^ | December 3, 2007 at 4:00 PM | Curt

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Deja vu?  Remember a few weeks ago when that McClellan story came out in which he supposedly said he was lied to about the Plame affair?  I wrote then:

Isn't it curious how the left constantly wailed about Scott McClellan allegedly lying during his press conferences, but now that he is saying something that smells like trash talk about Bush, he is suddenly a truth teller.

And now when a new NIE is released to the public saying that Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons program, NOW the left believes our intelligence agencies. 

For the last year the left has been all over the intelligence, saying that its all drummed up to let Bush go to war against another country.  Not anymore, now our NIE's are the whole truth and nothing but the truth:

Let’s not lose sight of the context of this news. The President has, on more than one recent occasion, talked about “World War III” with Iran. The Vice President has been dusting off his 2002 speeches, blustering that the U.S. “cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions.” The man responsible for shaping Rudy Giuliani’s foreign policy vision believes anyone opposed to immediate miltary strikes in Iran are guilty of “an irresponsible complacency that I think is comparable to the denial in the early ’30s of the intentions of Hitler.”

But, once again, they’re all wrong.

Funny huh?

Here is the news:

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

And the final conclusions.....

****************************snip***************************

I'm not buying it and Cliff May gives me even more reason not to buy it:

A friend, formerly at the CIA, tells me that while this NIE does confirm Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons in 2002 and 2003, its conclusions that as to why it may have stopped the program and why this halt may have continued are debateable and speculation.  These KJs [Key Judgments] have too much political spin. This assessment was strongly influenced by two hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials who oversaw it, both former State officials who fought tooth and nail against Bush WMD policies, especially Iran.

Surprise surprise.  VIPS at work once again?  It smells like more leaks by the VIPS types ala Plame and friends, trying to influence either the tactics used by this Administrations to stop Iran from getting a nuke, or to influence the upcoming elections.  Even the NYT's notices:

they [the conclusions] come in the middle of a presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been discussed.

This whole NIE smells to high heaven.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

From the NRO Corner:

Monday, December 03, 2007
Re: Iranian Nukes [Cliff May]

****************************

Jonah, the purpose of this NIE is to prevent Bush from using military force during the remainder of his term  to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program.

A friend, formerly at the CIA, tells me that while this NIE

does confirm Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons in 2002 and 2003, its conclusions that as to why it may have stopped the program and why this halt may have continued are debateable and speculation.  These KJs [Key Judgments] have too much political spin. This assessment was strongly influenced by two hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials who oversaw it, both former State officials who fought tooth and nail against Bush WMD policies, especially Iran. 

12/03 03:24 PM

[ken21]

mcclellan’s the son of:

carole keeton strayhorn,

a former texas state comptroller, governor wannabe, and daughter of an austin mayor of note.

[familyop]

That’s cool.

Iran produces nuclear fuel pellets [for heavy water reactor]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1930458/posts

S. Korea, U.S. verifying reports on test of new N.K. missile in Iran: source
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1834307/posts
(4,000 kilometer range—will reach London and the Vatican—May 16th, 2007)

Who needs western Europe anyway? Besides, we can have a much more exciting and longer war and oil shortage, if we allow Iran to build her nukes.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Interesting Group.....

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

*****************************

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), formed in January 2003 "to speak out on the use of intelligence to justify the war," is "a coast-to-coast enterprise; mostly intelligence officers from analysis side of CIA, but Operations side also represented. "[1][2][3]

VIPS Steering Group

• Kathleen McGrath Christison, Santa Fe, NM
• William Christison, Santa Fe, NM
• David MacMichael, Linden, VA
• Raymond McGovern, Arlington, VA
• Richard Beske, San Diego, CA
• Patrick G. Eddington, Alexandria, VA

Other Alleged VIPS Members

• Eugene Betit[4]
• Ray Close[5]
• Larry Johnson[6]

Correspondence

• 7 February 2003: VIPS MEMORANDUM sent to President George Walker Bush (published in Common Dreams).
• 15 February 2003: VIPS: "CIA says NO. U.S. Intelligence Officers Say Bush Out of His Mind on Iraq War" by Ray McGovern for NowToronto.com.
• 16 March 2003: VIPS MEMORANDUM: "Memorandum for Confused Americans. Cooking Intelligence for War" posted at LI Politics Message Board Forum by Ray McGovern: Appended and translated March 6, 2003, transcript from German Channel One's Panorama interview with former CIA officers, including Ray McGovern and David MacMichael, "to discuss the use/abuse of intelligence to support the US administration's case for attacking Iraq."
• 18 March 2003: VIPS "Memo to the President: Forgery, Hyperbole, Half-Truth: A Problem" posted Timothy D. O'Hare on March 20, 2003 -- "Veteran US Spooks Strongly Doubt Bush's Iraq Case" -- at ForeignPolicy.com.
• 26 April 2003: VIPS Memorandum: "The Stakes in the Search for Weapons of Mass Destruction" by David MacMichael and Ray McGovern; "Weapons of Mass Distraction: Where? Find? Plant?" in Scoop.
• 1 May 2003: "Intelligence Officers Challenge Bush" - VIPS Memorandum for the President: "Intelligence Fiasco" at BNfP.org; Also.
• 17 May 2003: "The Moment of Lies Has Arrived" by Hwaa Irfan, Staff Writer, IslamOnline: VIPS credited with bringing "to light" the forged Iraqi documents that were "supposed to provide evidence for Iraq's weapons of mass destruction."
• 19 May 2003: VIPS Letter sent via fax to Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations: "We Are Perplexed at the US Refusal to Permit the Return of UN Inspectors to Iraq" (published in Dissident Voice, May 21, 2003). Also at Truthout.
• 25 May 2003: VIPS: Opinion: "U.N. needs inspectors to return to Iraq", Birmingham News.
• 14 July 2003: "Cheney Must Go", an open letter to Pres. Bush published by Salon.com.

News Stories

• 14 March 2003: "Ex-CIA Officers Defy Bush Administration" by John J. Lumpkin, Associated Press Writer.
• 17 March 2003: "Ex-CIA Accuse Bush of Manipulating Iraq Evidence", AP: "The 25-member group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, composed mostly of former CIA analysts along with a few operational agents, is urging employees inside the intelligence agency to break the law and leak any information they have that could show the Bush administration is engineering the release of evidence to match its penchant for war."
• 22 March 2003: "CIA Officials Doubted Documents Linking Iraq to Efforts to Purchase Uranium from Niger" and communicated those doubts to the Bush Administration, reports the Washington Post, but President Bush nevertheless cited the allegations in his State of the Union address.
• 4 April 2003: "Some worry U.S. may bend facts for policy", SunSpot.net(cached article).
• 18 April 2003: "US should be 'embarrassed' over failure to find WMDs: ex-spies", AFP.
• 18 April 2003: "Former CIA Agents: Not Finding WMD in Iraq, Embarrassing to US" by Republicons Staff.
• 26 May 2003: "CIA: Sinned Against or Sinning?" by B. Raman, South Asia Analysis Group. Items 17 and 18 re VIPS in particular.
• 30 May 2003: "Save Our Spooks" by Nicholas D. Kristof, Op-ed columnist, The New York Times.
• 1 June 2003: "US security men accuse Bush of twisting facts," The International News (Pakistan).
• 3 June 2003: "Story: Ray McGovern of Veterans Intelligence Professionals for Sanity Analyzes Private Conversatino Between Powell and Straw Regarding Iraq's WMDs"; "live" interview with Pacifica's Peacewatch: "Peacewatch talked with Ray McGovern, a 27-year CIA veteran and a member of the steering committee of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity or VIPS. McGovern served as an "All Intelligence Agent" during the Reagan White House."
• 10 June 2003: "Intelligence questions" by Peter H. Stone, National Journal: DCI George J. Tenet "...in a written statement defended intelligence on Iraq, saying that the 'integrity of our process was maintained throughout, and any suggestion to the contrary is simply wrong.' ... Tenet's statement came in response to a memo written to Bush, and posted on some Internet sites, by a group of retired CIA and State analysts known as Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity."
• 23 June 2003: "Will Heads Roll over Faulty Intelligence about Iraq?" in Business Week Onlin, Richard S. Durham, Ed.: "Tenet, a holdover from the William Jefferson Clinton Administration, is caught in the crossfire. 'Most of my colleagues think it's only a matter of time before Tenet is fired,' says Raymond McGovern."
• 2 July 2003: "Veteran Intelligence Professional Ray McGovern: Bush administratiion slanted evidence prior to war"; live interview: "In this commentary for Peace Watch Ray McGovern points to an unusual pattern on the part of Vice President Dick Cheney to visit the CIA headquarters, which he did 27 times prior to the invasion."
• 23 June 2003: "Washington Lied: An Interview with Ray McGovern," Counterpunch.com
• 15 July 2003: "Why We Resigned from VIPS. It's About Policies, Not Personalities" by Kathleen and Bill Christison, CounterPunch.
• 12 April 2004: "Decoding the PDB" by Larry Johnson, TomPaine.com.
• 29 June 2004: "CIA According to Anonymous: New Book Reflects Analyst Outrage," by Ray McGovern, Counterpunch.com.

---

Extracted from Silence Is Unacceptable by M. Steven Kenniston, The Modern Tribune, March 30, 2003.

"In the months preceding war our President flatly refused to grant an audience to any anti-war organization, including Veterans for Common Sense, Veterans for Peace, and Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. Many of the men and women in these groups have experienced the horror of war first-hand and have commanded troops and served their country with dedication and valor. Yet when they sought to voice their concerns that the terrible costs of this war and its potentially disastrous consequences were not justified, they were rebuffed. Our President chose instead to listen to the counsel of a group of reactionary ideologues recruited from neo-conservative think tanks, such as the American Enterprise Institute and the Project for the New American Century. These arrogant and authoritative men advocate the use of military force as an acceptable political tool to achieve their goal of a New World Order dominated by American military and economic interests. They identified Iraq as a military target with the goal of regime change years before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. These men crafted the foreign policy behind the President's belligerent rhetoric, which sabotaged any hope of a diplomatic solution or possibility of building a broad coalition of nations. Saying that you're either with us or you're against us and that we are prepared to act unilaterally and preemptively doesn't leave much room for debate."

[edit]

Contact

Ray McGovern at:
rmcgovern@slschool.org"[7] or
vips@counterpunch.org

---

[edit]

Other Related SourceWatch Resources

• cooked intelligence
• media control

[edit]

External Links

Blogs that mention this article

• The New, Suddenly Correct, NIE on Iran
• The New, Suddenly Correct, NIE on Iran

[HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath]

When they say peace and safety, then comes sudden destruction.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Time to post this again:

*********************************************************

There is a book (now available in paperback ):

***********************

Unholy Alliance: Radical Islam and the American Left
(Hardcover)
by David Horowitz

********************************************************

And reviews:

****************************************

Editorial Reviews

Rich Lowry, Editor National Review

David Horowitz is synonymous with pyrotechnics. A historian and polemicist of the first order, he is paid the ultimate compliment --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Davis Hanson, Author, Ripples of Battle

An original look at those who want us to fail in the Middle East, both at home and abroad. The --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

***********************************************************

See all Editorial Reviews

Fascinating Analysis of Leftist Goals, August 13, 2006

Reviewer: N. Sincerity - See all my reviews

A former 1960s radical, Horowitz is well-acquainted with the Leftist mindset. In this book, he strives to explain the modern alliance between left wing progressivists and radical Islamofascists. He argues that this alliance is based on a common desire to destroy Western capitalism. Leftist sympathy with Islamofascist ideas makes no sense from an intellectual point of view, given that countries ruled by radical Islamists are among the most racist, sexist, theocratic states in the world today. However, Leftists have recognized that they can benefit politically from destructive terrorist attacks on the Western world. A West under attack can be made to turn on its leaders in fear and desperation (as they did in Spain after the Madrid train bombings). Only once people reject current government structures can the Left execute its anti-capitalist revolution and build a new reality that mirrors the Leftist view of utopia.

The complete and utter idealogical hypocrisy of the Islamofascist-Leftist alliance is distressing, but as Horowitz reminds us,

Leftists radicals truly believe the ends justify the means.

***************************************

[PhilDragoo]

And I have it on good faith from New York Times stringer and Pulitzer Prize winner William Duranty that Joseph Stalin never starved a single Ukranian let alone the ten million of which he is accused.

This whole Iran nuclear crisis is just another Wag the Dog bumper sticker by the reckless cowboy Boosh.

Khomenei and Ahmadinejad only want peace--what is the real threat of chaos is the uncovered hair of Condoleezza Rice--such exposed female hair emits radiation which drives men mad.

All we are saying is give sharia a chance.

Let them have their centrifuges--just watch what you name your teddy bear.

Priorities.

You have been warned.

Citizens for Blinding America to the Future Jihad

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

News:

BBC: US Democrats want rethink on Iran

****************************

The Democrat leader of the US Senate, Harry Reid, said he hoped the White House would undertake "a diplomatic surge" to engage with Iran.

"I hope this administration reads this report carefully and appropriately adjusts its rhetoric and policy vis-a-vis Iran," said Mr Reid.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Citizens for Blinding America to the Future Jihad

Our friends on the left!

[SierraWasp]

NO!!! I'm with you Ernest!!! This is el stupido to the MAX!!! More Bush battering by the bastards loyal to anti-American leftists embedded in our own Central Intelligence(sic) Agency!!!

I'm not a big bible thumper, but there is a verse in the New Testament that relates to this kind of deviousness by desperadoes in high places... "For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places." (Ephesians 6:12)

Too many inexplicable and despicable things taking shape on the world scene... Some of it taking on metaphysical metamorphosis that are baffling. To me, I'll never understand why the President never swept the government clean while he had a new broom. There are scoundrels and malevolent mischiefmakers right up to the cabinet levels of his government to this danged day!!!

[neodad]

2 thing come to mind - Isreal has agreed to take them out, or, cripple them with falling oil prices. Otherwise, this makes no sense.

[piasa]

[SNIP]...So who are these purported voices for "sanity" and against "politicization"? Blogger William Sjostrom did some online sleuthing, and here's what he found:

VIPS does not seem to have a website, but its email is vips@counterpunch.org, and their open letter appears to have been published at CounterPunch (run by Alexander Cockburn, the Nation columnist), an outfit whose staple is stuff comparing Bush to Hitler. VIPS also published an open letter in opposition to the war at Common Dreams back in February [2003]. The spokesman for VIPS is Raymond McGovern, a retired CIA analyst. McGovern's email is also at CounterPunch. He is giving a briefing today [Tuesday] with Rep. Dennis Kucinich. McGovern has compared the Iraq war to Vietnam, even saying that it could lead to nuclear war. He has charged that if WMDs are found in Iraq, they may well have been planted. He believes Tenet's job is safe because if Tenet were fired, he would reveal that the White House ignored intelligence warnings pre-9/11. McGovern has urged CIA analysts to illegally release classified documents to show what he believes to be true, specifically citing Daniel Ellsberg.

Another member of the VIPS steering committee is William Christison, who among other things believes that the Bush administration is attempting to colonize the Middle East, jointly with Israel. He believes that the war on terror is being used to turn the US into a military dictatorship. He is also a backer of the left-wing UrgentCall, along with people such as Noam Chomsky {VVAW, NION}, Barbara Kingsolver, Julian Bond, and Jonathan Schell.... -----'Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity, ' BY JAMES TARANTO , Wednesday, July 16, 2003 2:22 p.m. EDT[/SNIP]

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

More detail:

US: Iran Still Able to Develop Nukes

*************************EXCERPT*********************

Dec 3, 6:21 PM (ET)

By PAMELA HESS

(AP) National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley addresses the media on the findings of the National...
Full Image

WASHINGTON (AP) - Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure but is continuing to enrich uranium, which means it may still be able to develop a weapon between 2010 and 2015, according to a new U.S. intelligence assessment released Monday.

That finding, part of a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, is a sharp turnaround from two years ago when U.S. intelligence agencies believed Tehran was determined to develop a nuclear weapons capability and was continuing its weapons development program. It suggests that Iran's decisions are rational and pragmatic, and that Tehran is more susceptible to diplomatic and financial pressure than previously thought, the document concluded.

"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," says the unclassified summary of the secret report.

The findings come at a time of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which President Bush has labeled part of an "axis of evil," along with Iraq and North Korea. At an Oct. 17 news conference, Bush said, "If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them (Iran) from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon."

(AP) This handout IKONOS satellite image, taken June 26, 2007, shows the Natanz Nuclear facility. Iran...
Full Image

Rand Beers, who resigned from Bush's National Security Council just before the Iraq war, said the report should derail any appetite for war on the administration's part, and should reinvigorate regional diplomacy. "The new NIE throws cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran," he said.

Senior intelligence officials said Monday they failed to detect Iran's fall 2003 halt in nuclear weapons development in time to reflect it in the 2005 estimate.

One of the officials said Iran is the most challenging country to spy on - harder even than North Korea, a notoriously closed society. "We put a lot more collection assets against this," the official said, "but gaps remain." The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Some of the changes in the new report reflect the use of "open source" intelligence - public information from sources such as the news media and international organizations. An official said, for example, that photos taken at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility during U.N. inspections in 2002 were particularly useful in assessing the capabilities of the civilian uranium enrichment program.

U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, said the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains "a serious problem." The estimate suggests Bush "has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests, while ensuring the world will never have to face a nuclear armed Iran," Hadley said. He was less interested in what the 2005 assessment missed than what it got right: that Iran had a covert nuclear program.

[Eagles6]

Makes much more sense than tomorrow’s drive by headlines. I suspect that iran already has a workable nuke and is working on a missile platform to strike Israel with 100% certainty or a route to ship it into a US port with 100% deniability.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

He is giving a briefing today [Tuesday] with Rep. Dennis Kucinich.

Oh Lord....the coots are gonna do it to us!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I agree!

[FFranco]

The NIE should never have been released with these conclusions/speculations. Pres Bush and VP Cheney should have demanded a redo including all the evidence about the threat Iran poses to the US and the World before it was released to the Congress and the public.

With this NIE, the Administration will be forestalled from taking any military action against Iran - probably. If Hillary or another Leftist is elected next fall, that means Iran will be free to complete development of their WMD program and probably World War III.

[piasa]

Alexander Cockburn is related to the ‘journalist’ Patrick Cockburn - Patrick’s the guy who put out the allegation that General Petraeus wants to run for
president.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

There are scoundrels and malevolent mischiefmakers right up to the cabinet levels of his government to this danged day!!!

Absolutely!

And they are protected from being removed by laws passed by the leftists in the 40 years they were in power!

[PhilDragoo]

U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, said the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains "a serious problem." The estimate suggests Bush "has the right strategy: intensified international pressure along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests, while ensuring the world will never have to face a nuclear armed Iran," Hadley said. He was less interested in what the 2005 assessment missed than what it got right: that Iran had a covert nuclear program.

[Ben Hecks]

Bump for later read. Thanks, EATB.

[SierraWasp]

And his new broom should have swept away those ill advised laws as well!!! And whatever happened to the concept that Iraq oil was going to fund the redemption of the Iraqi nation???

The minute I heard those middleeasterners start to say that President Bush was on a "Crusade," I just knew that he would go all wobbly to keep from appearing that yes indeed we're gonna turn that whole region into a colony for a few years to teach the murderous muslers not to attack the USA in a more insidious manner than the Japanese did to start WWII.

Now that we haven't, you betcha the Persians are gonna try to start WWIII with another super sneaky attack of a nuclear nature. These numbskulls you've been exposing right here on this thread are all too willing to facilitate such an obscene and evil scheme. Damn them!!!

[piasa]

Rand Beers, who resigned from Bush's National Security Council just before the Iraq war, said the report should derail any appetite for war on the administration's part, and should reinvigorate regional diplomacy. "The new NIE throws cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran," he said.

Amazing how the press is always so quick to cite some items on a source's resume but is reluctant to post equally important facts:

MARCH 2003 midmonth, five days before the war : (A WHITE HOUSE ANTI-TERRORISM ADVISOR, RAND BEERS, QUITS AND LATER JOINS KERRY CAMPAIGN) After working at the National Security Council for 35 years, under presidents Ronald Reagan, George Bush and Bill Clinton, Beers, 60, had been the main counter-terrorism advisor from August [2002] until his resignation in March. He has since joined the presidential campaign of Democratic Senator John Kerry. ------- "Former security advisor says Bush failing to counter terror threat ," AFP via Yahoo, June 16, 2003 Monday, 2:36 PM ET

As it happens, both Rand Beers and a guy we're all familiar with from his marriage to "superdooperdeepcoverciaspy" Valerie Plame, Joe Wilson--- both signed the Jan 2004 Democrats Abroad letter endorsing Kohn Kerry whose campaign took time to send to Iran's "Tehran Times," as if they expected votes from Iranian precincts, too. Other signers include CIP's/VIP's Mel Goodman, the former State Dept hack Greg Craig, who are also familiar from the Niger uranium caper.

[Enchante]

Is there actually any new EVIDENCE or is that just a new political spin from VIPS-type charlatans??

To issue such definitive conclusions we would have to believe with the highest level of confidence that (1) previously known development sites have been 100% sidelined, and (2) no secretive warhead development facility(ies) have been created anywhere else that we don’t know about.

It is much harder to prove a negative, and to make this blanket assertion that Iran stopped nuclear weapons development in 2003 requires an extraordinary level of evidence. Given that the “intel community” was taken by surprise by nuclear weapons tests by India and Pakistan, it’s rather difficult to give much credence to this report without knowing that we have obtained exceptional access to a wide range of physical and human intel at all the relevant sites within Iran.

Under their govt. how can we even be confident we know where all sites are and what they’re up to?

Another question: even if we somehow ‘know’ that there was a major change in their efforts in 2003, how do we know they did not reach some satisfactory level of engineering for an existing nuclear warhead design, such as one they received from the Khan network, and so stopped a visible program, to be resumed whenever they have enough enriched uranium?? And how do we know they have not “out-sourced” the warhead development to North Korea or Syria, etc.? Maybe that was what Israel’s strike destroyed, but then this NIE was supposedly written 8-9 months ago, so why such a high level of confidence THEN?

The whole thing smells of left-wing VIPS politics, not sound intel analysis......

[piasa]

As it happens, both Rand Beers and a guy we're all familiar with from his marriage to "superdooperdeepcoverciaspy" yikes...

Valerie Plame, Joe Wilson--- both signed the Jan 2004 Democrats Abroad letter endorsing Kohn Kerry, whose campaign took time to send the letter to Iran's "Tehran Times" as if they expected votes from Iranian precincts. Other signers include CIP's/VIP's Mel Goodman, the former State Dept hack Greg Craig, who are also familiar from the Niger uranium caper.

[piasa]

1998 & 1999 : (NIAMEY, NIGER : QADEER KHAN USES NIGER AS A CENTER OF OPERATIONS FOR “ATOMIC SHOPPING”) In 1998, and above all 1999, a series of encounters defined by nuclear anti-proliferation experts as highly suspect, were held in Niamey. It was here that the “doctor” [Qadeer Khan] had his atomic shopping base, the very same base as was used for trips to Sudan, Nigeria, Dubai, Casablanca (where he was received by the ambassador Kakar), Bamako or Timbuktu in Mali (February 98, Hotel Hendrina Khan), Chad where in February he visited the Shifa centre [refers to the so-called Sudanese “aspirin factory”] which had just been bombed by the Americans.
Again in February (there was) a visit to Mauritania where contacts were made with officials of the Republic of Congo and Somalia : countries reported by the CIA to the White House before the declarations made by George W. Bush in regards to Iraq :declarations in which the President mentions Africa, and not Niger, as the place in which Saddam was desperately seeking uranium.
While Rocco Martino was putting his hands on documents that evidenced agreements between the Niger government and Iraq for the supply of uranium ,at the very same time, and up until well into 2000, the strangest people on the earth were busy visiting Niger’s ‘Gran Bazar’ with Khan.
-———— “Uranium from Niger for the Islamic Atom Bomb,” By Gian Marco Chiocci, il Giornale de Italia, Washington, November 30, 2005 , (Translation by Parnasokan .Edited by poster.) Posted by mrmeangenes on Thursday December 1, 2005 at 2:03 pm MST Link to story: http://www.ilgiornale.it/a.pic1?ID=46594

[familyop]

"2 thing come to mind - Isreal has agreed to take them out, or, cripple them with falling oil prices. Otherwise, this makes no sense."

I've been sorting the propaganda on Iran for a few years. There's a consensus in our leadership (not unanimous but an effective consensus) of agreement with the UK and others, that Iran is only a military threat to Israel. They also agree on any war with Iran being a terrible threat to the economies of western nations.

The truth of the matter is that international trade lobbyists have won. They're only fronting the former intel REMFs up in the propaganda efforts as "experts."

As a very high ranking (recently inactive) officer of the Navy told me not long ago, he's afraid (as I am) that our Nation no longer has the will for any large fight. It's been in the works for a long time, anyway, with that nucklehead mental limitation to small intensity conflicts.

It'll all come out in the wash. Pride goes before defeat. The Chicoms aren't inherently stupid monkeys (as a few Vietnam-era commanders have told me), and Iran is not stupid enough to put all of their eggs on Israel. Say goodbye to your favorite vacation spots within the next few years.

We'll learn well enough in time to save the USA, IMO. We'll just have to take a lump or two for our vanities, first. As for western Europe, well, that's somethin' else.

So what do you know. Contrary to our doctrine, a time has come to think about the "unthinkable." And our leadership brought that thinking to us.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Ernest. Wholeheartedly agree, the NIE smells like a load of rotting fish. I think Iran is going to do its best to dispel the conclusions of this report, and (best part) that will result in a LOT of questions from Congress and their partisan media shills, and the right, er, left, heads will roll.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Well...here is a familiar name:

Scott Ritter: No “evidence” to prove allegations against Iran

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

See link at #31.

[gonzo]

And this Friday, along with being an anniversary-of-sorts, is akin to a new-moon.

I can't tell who's tryin' to fool who with this NIE crap, but if I was an Iranian soldier or nuke-tech, I'd be callin' in sick on Friday.

And the timing is excellent, too. The dimocRAT candidates and 'leadership' (I made myself laugh, Phil) have painted themselves into their anti-war-at-any-cost corner, and probably wouldn't be able to recover in time for the '08 elections.

The only downside is that the 'algore' would probably become the default candidate, and we'd have to listen to him whine again ........................... FRegards

[FARS]

Iran and Nukes.

I have said this, so has http://www.antimullah.com so often I am tired of hearing myself repeat it.

IRAN ALREADY HAS between six and a dozen nuclear warheads - compliments the Ukraine and North Korea - SOURCE is non-open source from various countries - so cannot be identified but this was independently verified by more than one organization.

Part of the effort to find what was what in Iran, started in trying to find out where a “missing” South African nuke had disappeared. Orginally they thought three had gone AWOL but it ended up that only one was not there and it had gone to a “friendly” country - which I cannot disclose but it would certainly not attack us.

There has been a highly visible increased tempo in a concerted effort recently to disinform the USA and the Western world public by Mullah shills, who not only go around everywhere they can, saying Iran has no intention to make nuke weapons, is a long way away from success (though they have made errors and admitted they are far ahead of where we think - perhaps to scare their Arab neighbors).

Even Iranians (or IAEA ElBaradei) playing both sides of the street as double agents, have begun spreading the word that the USA wants, yes supports, the Mullahs to remain power and that any effort to oppose the Mullahs is a waste of time.

Again, without naming names, the Mullahs - some 30-years afer having confiscated the property (or something similar to property) RECENTLY paid the former owner (ostensibly an anti-regime opponent) $35 million for the said “property”.

They also told him, using his “apparent” anti-regime credentials, to start up an “opposition” movement (he had tried before - to nurture his ego or cover - since he was related to a highly influential, secular, pro-Mullah regime administrator but ran out of funds), to start recruiting ex-royalist military officers and supporters here and in Europe to identify who might be willing to participate against the Mullahs - AND TO FEED THEM ALL INFORMATION HE GATHERED.

His connecion (by marriage) to other key opposition people involved some of them, too, AND corrupted them. One specifically in that high level group, who did not have a penny to his name has now bought a shopping center!

Iranian TV and Radio in the USA and Europe largely survives on money paid to them by the Mullahs. Often amounts in the millions and serves to publicize their agenda.

Not long ago they started a campaign to discredit senior Air Force officers who had served well under the late Shah. They brought in a couple of Air Force Generals who had been nobodies during their service, interviewed them and allowed them to trash any officer who might be effective if there were an attempt at regime change.

Ineffective senior officers were not even mentioned. Only those whose capabilites were dangerous. And those officers who had been executed and were no longer a threat were praised to the heavens. So easy to spot the game if you know the players.

I have much more detail but am not providing more than outlines to allow Freepers to see that there is a terrific disinformation campaign under way, aided and abetted by people who - on the face of things - we should be trusting and supporting to oppose the Islamic regime in Iran.

Again, in generalities, that particular political group has brought in former Tudeh (Iranian Communist) leaders and more recently serious drug dealers!

Quiet efforts are being made to make the top leadership there aware of the mistakes in judgement they are making but so far to little or no avail since the “rotten apples” have been trusted by them for too long and their political acumen has failed to rise to the occasion and take corrective steps.

Hard to blame them when our intel agencies take people like Akbar Ganji and Amir Abbas Fakhravar into their bosom. Possibly with the vain hope of “turning” them

Ganji, whom you might remember as the hunger srike journalist “arrested” by the Mullahs was turned into an infilrator in an almost repetitive method of operation used by the Mullahs to create a bullet proof background for their agent. Ganji, who was originally with the Revolutionary Guards and first tortured then returned those who has successfully fled Iran into Turkey, is now the protegee of Chomsky and the darling of the CIA.

Fakhravar who presented himself as a “student leader” never had a student ID issued to him by any institute of learning in Iran, which is an imperative for a student of higher learning. He had a car accident which damaged his knee and he used this as part of his “cover story”, saying it occurred under torture in prison. He was outed by another Iranian, whose brother did die in Evin prison Manuchehr Mohammadi but the latter was quickly bought off and stopped his accusations that Fakhravar was part of the suppression force, who attacked students, not one of them.

Whenever he went in a trip inside Iran, he would return and pretend he had been in prison.

On the other hand, I know someone who has devastating documentation and leverage over a HUGE fish in the regime’s intel. That person (gender withheld) tried to share this knowledge with our agencies but was cold shouldered and ignored!

Apparently if information is not generated by them they do not want to know. And are letting it go to waste.

Watching this insane rejection and the way the Mullahs plant their people among us with impunity and pass them off as their enemy because we do not have the means to check them out properly is beyond frustrating.

You have probably read the recent story of the FBI agent who was hired and turned out to be a totally false individual placed to get the files on suspected terrorists so they would know what the Feebies knew. A good indicator of how bad things are, when we cannot even do a good background check on people who have been here for a while. Let alone the so-called “fugitives” the Mullahs send to us and we take in with open arms and idiotic lack of brains.

Even the excuse of “turning” them is a fallacy as they have family back home they know will die under torture if they switch sides. Who would you suport under those conditions? Sacrifice any number of your near and distant family (and friends) to spy for the CIA??? NOT unless you are insane!

We might be able to protect the person not the whole family. And the Mullahs have PROVED they have no qualms about torturing and killing people. Would we kill to protect them? Don’t think so. Neither do the infiltrators.

Anyway, the subject of the Mullahs not having nor of going for more nukes is such a ton of bull crap that it invited this reply.

[familyop]

By now, it has probably occurred to a few of us, that our leadership will do anything...anything to keep oil prices down and the US dollar internationally high.

[familyop]

Here’s one more consideration. With that propaganda dissemination from the IC, there won’t likely be any more sanctions against Iran, and some existing sanctions will be dumped. As it is perceived that there’s no nuclear threat, there’s no incentive for sanctions.

[Dog]

This release of the NIE makes perfect sense....the VIPS think we are about to hit Iran. It will be interesting to see if Bush releases the whole NIE.

Could this be the VIPS trump card....or do they have another to stop Bush from messing with Iran.

[Shady]

It is meant to diffuse attention to Iran and focus it on Queen Charlatan and her wonderful “ideas” for a future America. Then when the Iranian bomb goes off in a US city, Martial Law can be declared and her work just begins. Problem is, the Military would revolt.

[Perdogg]

ping

[Perdogg]

http://www.amazon.com/Shadow-Warriors-Traitors-Saboteurs-Surrender/dp/0307352099

[Virginia Ridgerunner]

The Cylons and what happened to Caprica and the other colonies of Kobol on BSG come to mind when I see crap like this.

[Gritty]

[edcoil]

The USA went into Iraq in 2003 and they then stopped their nuclear program, that about sum the entire thing up?

[PhilDragoo]

Gee, who to believe: The likes of the Plames and Richard Clarkes and Rand Beers assuring us there's no threat in the home office of the Religion of Peace?

Or the evidence of Iran's deception, acquisition, clandestine processing concurrent with its contemporary killing of our forces in Iraq?

Walid Phares' FUTURE JIHAD: Terrorist Strategies Against America repeatedly stresses that significant resources are devoted to infiltrating America's government, academia, intelligence, media and political tissues to inject paralyzing venom.

So, who are we going to believe, John Edwards who tells us this is nothing more than a "bumper sticker" or our lying eyes?

[Popocatapetl]

Granted, the NIE assessment is utter hooey, but the big question becomes why? I doubt the 12 intelligence agencies could reach agreement over who is currently the US President.

Something as ambiguous as proving a negative (Iran has no nuclear weapons), virtually impossible to prove, means that this assessment is forced, for a very pressing reason.

But what is that reason? And why is it so important that these agencies could be coerced, or argued, into such exposure? They have been ordered, as a group, to put their credibility on the line. An extraordinary accomplishment under any circumstances.

This transcends even the power of the President. It must be done with the full participation of the leaders of the US Senate, quite possibly the House, most definitely both political parties. It might even involve the cooperation of Israel, Russia, China or the EU.

This is really big. But why?

The only thing that comes to mind is that we have to do this to *prevent* a nuclear war. How that is to be, I couldn’t say. But it is about the only thing serious enough to compel such amazing compliance.

Ordinary political mischief, intrigue, conspiracy and brinkmanship are a factor or two less important that this. This is for the gold. But why?

[SunkenCiv]

By now, it has probably occurred to a few of us, that our leadership will do anything...anything to keep oil prices down and the US dollar internationally high.

The price of oil is near its all-time high, and the US dollar has been on a long, long, long slide downward. Which leaders do you mean?

[FARS]

Good, valid conjecture. Our govt. and perhaps European ones can only postpone a nuclear war, not stop it. It’s on the pike and coming at us if we leave Iran untouched.

My conjecture, triggered by your reasoning would be economical not nuclear concerns working to unite these groups.

The US Dollar is already diving in value and a couple of nudges, far below China’s threat to sell off trillions of cash it holds, would crash and burn our currency and shortly afterward every other currency in a domino fashion.

We could get through a nuclear holocaust more easily than this financial one.

In both cases though, the survivors would be the third world countries that would not be a target and survive (either less or totally unpoluted) on their ability to feed themselves from local agriculture and use local fuel sources like wood or coal.

In both cases the world and living in it would not resemble anything we would recognize today.

Another conjecture might be that the White House has decided to remove the Iran threat and all these agencies with liberal minded Congressional backing to support them are trying to prevent this happening.

We all realize, the intel community, too, that the consequences of an attack on Iran can be a disruption of life in America. The sudden, unusual “co-operation” might be a short sighted effort to avoid this.

Certainly to postpone it for long enough to take it off their watch.

Or maybe just disinformation to hide our intentions. With Congress a ready but not in the loop participant.

[syriacus]

Great commentary!

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Related thread:

Dark Suspicions about the NIE
Commentary ^ | December 3, 2007 | Norman Podhoretz

[SunkenCiv]

Let’s see... the NIE on Iraq (going back years, into the Clinton administration at least) indicated Iraq was working with al Qaeda, and working on the Bomb, as well as chemical and biological weapons. The US liberated Iraq and has been rebuilding that nation for four years or so. Even before our troops went there, the left was claiming that Saddam Hussein and his regime produced nothing but gummy bears and lollipops, not unlike what they said before Afghanistan, but much more loudly.

Now the NIE on Iran sez the mullahcracy *isn’t* working on nukes; so when the Bush administration goes in, it’ll be without the NIE, and will be our President’s ultimate bitch-slap to the Dhimmicrats — see, we went in regardless, and you’re still powerless to stop us from carrying out a policy of destroying terrorism where it exists. Whattayagonnadonow, say we went based on a lie? ;’D