From a link in the FA Comments :
December 04, 2007
NIE: other things going on
Richard Baehr
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Here is a my quick reflection on the top news story of the day: the intelligence community's assessment on Iran's nuclear program.
1. The intelligence community was unaware that Al Qaeda was about to strike on 9/11. So wrong on that one.
2. They did, however, think Iraq was in the process of completing a nuclear program. They appear to have been wrong on that one.
3. They thought Iran was on the verge of a nuclear weapons program in 2005. Now the intelligence community tells us they were wrong on that one too. But now they are right, presumably, when they tell us that Iran gave up its nuclear weapons program in 2003. I don't buy it.
I think other things are going on, namely:
1. The intelligence community is bitter for being blamed for its failure to anticipate 9/11, and for being blamed for bad intelligence that led to the Iraq war.
2. So the safe route is to downplay the likelihood of an Iranian nuclear weapons program. That surely diminishes the likelihood off an American military action against Iran. And the intelligence community can not then be blamed for another war, if the intelligence that led to the decision to go to war was wrong. And if they are wrong this time (and were right in 2005), and there is a nuclear weapons program? Well, it is Israel that most likely suffers, not the US directly (in the short run).
The CIA in particular, and the intelligence community in general, have never been very well inclined to Israel or to Jews (try to join their ranks if you are Jewish. If you think I am wrong about this -- there is huge suspicion of dual loyalty). Of course, this also means that if Israel, which is less well-equipped for a sustained military operation against Iran than the US, out of necessity elects to take action alone (since they are convinced the US assessment is wrong), they will be condemned around the world because of skepticism of the need for such an action. And it will be more difficult for the US to give them cover, or be seen in any way coordinating with Israel in what they do.
And one final problem: it will now be far more difficult for the US and Israel to put together a more effective sanctions regime, since this may seem unduly alarmist, commercially costly to some nations and companies, and therefore unnecessary and counter-productive. So no military action, no new economic pressure, and it is all in Israel's lap, which is busy releasing terrorist killers, and offering up the West Bank to the PA for now and in time, probably to Hamas.
Not a good day in any respect. Lost in all this is that nukes or no nukes, Iran is a bad actor. They have proven that in Argentina, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, and Iraq to name a few. The will to confront them in any of these areas will also now likely fade as a result of this new assessment, suggesting that diplomacy is the appropriate way to influence behavior in Iran.
Many others weigh in:
Yet another attempt by the far left to do as much damage as they can. I am of the opinion that it far exceeds some fast prepared attempt to somehow discredit this administration in the hopes the masses will somehow think the bitch or muslim are a better choice in 2008.
It is a continued far reaching communist( or if not directly sponsored by communists, but very liberal socialistic derivatives spawned over the years ) driven activity to shift the way Americans, Europeans, and Canadians view what political parties are best adapted at keeping the world at a level of stasis that appears to be safe.
We have witnessed so many recent attempts, e.g. Able Danger demise, and say the now repeated assertions that Iraq had no weapon of mass destruction programs in many phases (often simply held on the kettle until sanctions where lifted), to the point where the masses are totally confused on the basic issues, many of us take for granted as being pretty much understood in principle.
As Enchante and some other ably equipped Freepers have noted time in again, there are left wing pragmatist that will continue to cloud the waters as how the USA and it's real allies should pursue Communist and Islamic based regimes.
It appears to me, this will be the the way things operate for a long time to come.
Only if we can obtain a really conservative based majority in both houses of congress that are willing to carefully investigate the many issues that keep this country at risk of falling into a really super bad condition from a national security and literally sovereign condition, are we going to breath a bit easier over the next say ten years.
I don't know about you guys, but I consistently feel this country continues to fall into the dark abyss of socialistic governance where it will be so totally difficult to recover from or perhaps literally finally over the edge that the newer generations will not be able to recover.
These fears have been voiced by literally millions of God loving patriotic Americans over the years. And always, things where worked out to where a status quo of sort, equilebrium would be found.
But I cannot help but wonder if things will slip with the new generation of smart idiots combined with the elder mostly ill equipped politically and historically illiterate, to a point where the socialists far left will succeed in winning over the masses.
With that being said, gentlemen, I hope your upcoming day shall be fine. I gotta hit the rack. Work work work.