Skip to comments.Europeans, Americans fret over China's rise: survey
Posted on 12/05/2007 11:02:09 PM PST by DTAD
A majority of Europeans and Americans view China's emergence as a major economic power as a threat, with only the British seeing an opportunity, according to a survey released Wednesday.
Europeans were slightly more worried than Americans with 55 percent concerned about China's rise compared with 51 percent in the US, the results of the survey from the German Marshall Fund found.
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In the late 80s, Japan was going to take over as the world’s premier economy, and the US was fading into insignificance. Pfffft. Now comes the next pretender, China.
If there were 5 Chinas, the Chinese economy would be as big as the US economy. China has huge bad debts within its’ banking system, much larger in relation to the size of its’ economy than our debts, and will experience a major setback within 24-36 months. China’s demographics ensure a lingering stagnation for many years, similar to Japan’s.
Another pretender will bite the dust. Meanwhile, Japan will start to regain economic energy just as China sinks. Unfortunately, the rest of the world will be contracting smartly by 2011-2012, led by the USA. So, no one is going to do very well for a while after about 2011. Make hay while the sun shines, right now is as good as it’s going to get for a long time.
You parrot a hackneyed anecdotal comparison that seems to be the stock response on threads discussing the threat posed by a rapidly expanding and militarizing People’s Republic of China. China is quite a bit different than Japan in many significant ways, and argument by false analogy might sound pithy, but is a poor way to accurately evaluate national security concerns.
In macroeconomics, speed kills.
You parrot a hackneyed anecdotal comparison that seems to be the stock response on threads discussing the threat posed by a rapidly expanding and militarizing Peoples Republic of China. China is quite a bit different than Japan in many significant ways, and argument by false analogy might sound pithy, but is a poor way to accurately evaluate national security concerns.
So at least put your own position out there.
Reasons why China is not the next 1980s Japan:
- China has five times the population of the US, while Japan has less than 1/2 of the population of US. Even if every Japanese was as rich as every American, it still can’t beat the US simply on one fact: smaller population.
- China’s public debt is 22% of its national GDP. Japan’s public debt is 176.2% of its national GDP; and US’s public debt is 64.7% of its national GDP. Japan has the largest public debt in the world.
- China’s corporate culture is more similar to the US’s than it is to Japan. This is because of the influence of multinationals in China. Japan never opened itself to that extent of foreign investment and competition. Non-SOE corporations in China are far leaner and more competitive than Japanese keiretsu’s.
- Chinese companies invest in raw and natural resources overseas (in every single continent), whereas the Japanese invested in bubble real estate in Manhattan.
“China is quite a bit different than Japan in many significant ways, and argument by false analogy might sound pithy, but is a poor way to accurately evaluate national security concerns.”
I agree that there are many differences. I was not discussing the security aspect, only the economic situation of China going forward. I don’t parrot anyone, my thoughts are the result of years of demographic research, which is part of my business. And my business has been very successful. In other words, I put my money where my mouth is. I don’t just post to roast others.
I like that word bollocks, though it doesn’t apply to what I wrote. “Japan’s economic rebound (if you can characterize it as such) in the last four years...”
I wrote that Japan will start to come off the mat in a few years, I’m was not talking about the last 4 years. And I also said Japan would be held back as they tried to rise by the rest of the world, led by the USA. It seems to me we are in basic agreement on Japan. They will start to regain energy, but will be sunk by US and Chinese problems. Though I should point out that China’s problems will become more evident by 2025, as it’s population ages.
Chinese banks have $911 billion in bad loans as of May 2006. Those bad loans are probably up to around $1.2 trillion at this point. That is like the USA having 5.5 trillion in bad loans. The reason countries like China blow up is they aren’t as transparent as the USA, aren’t as fast to fix problems, and don’t really understand markets. They interfere too much, and postpone the day of reckoning much longer than we do. China will have a small piece of it’s population that will become very rich, and the rest will continue to look for a bowl of rice.