Skip to comments.Stupid Intelligence
Posted on 12/07/2007 8:58:47 AM PST by MizSterious
The recent national intelligence estimate that concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is just about the stupidest intelligence assessment I have ever read. It falls hook, line and sinker for a transparent bait and switch tactic employed not only by Iran, but by several other nuclear powers in the past.
The tactic is obvious and well-known to all intelligence officials with an IQ above room temperature. It goes like this: There are two tracks to making nuclear weapons: One is to conduct research and develop technology directly related to military use. That is what the United States did when it developed the atomic bomb during the Manhattan Project. The second track is to develop nuclear technology for civilian use and then to use the civilian technology for military purposes.
(Excerpt) Read more at frontpagemagazine.com ...
Thought this one might interest you...
Dershowitz isn’t bad for a Clinton defending liberal
D is absolutely correct. Iran with all that enriched uranium, which they are “hiding” in plain sight, is a significant threat to the United States and our allies.
I think this statement underestimates the left's hatred of GWB and those who support him. I'm sure this report can be topped. :-)
It is srange to see Alan lining up with the President. Who’s agenda is Alan pushing here?
I don’f often agree with Alan, but he does recognize that Iran is a real threat. To attribute that to some other secret hidden agenda is asinine.
Your comment is even more blindly stupid than NIE’s assessment. Go back to DU where you belong.
Apparently, even some libs don't like the idea of fallout in their pool.
The fact is that Dershowitz is a staunch supporter of Israel, and a supporter of an aggressive war on terror. o while he is disgustingly liberal on many issues, he has, for example, supported the use of torture against terroorists in order to thwart their plans. Plus he’s just right on this, Iran is a threat and Iran with enriched uranium is a huge threat.
Sorry for the necessity of posting again but in my haste to point out your most obvious bias, I neglected to mention that you have joined FR just today. Is that so you can start your own misinformation campaign. DU is where you came from and DU is where you belong.
The Iranians may well be playing this out the slow, reliable way - enrich uranium and wait until you have enough for an entire program's worth of devices, not just one "here I am" shot. With uranium you can construct simpler gun-and-target designs. If I were trying this under the nose of international observation that's how I'd to it. But I'd try purchasing materials at the same time.
In the several decades during the run up to the war in Iraq, France under Chirac, either as PM or Pres, made scores of billions selling Hussein dual use technology and equipment, which could be put to use for peaceful industrial purposes, or for military weaponry. The trade was based on Hussein’s assertion that the stuff bought was for peaceful purposes. French commercial interests, in addition to simple greed on Chirac’s part, motivated the trade.
With this NIE, it appears the door may be opened to similar commerce with Iran, as long as it is “guaranteed” that the materials and technology sold is for peaceful nuclear energy. I wonder if American Bernard Schwartz-like personalities and businesses weren’t a force behing the estimate?
Dersh for SecState!
Welcome to FR! - even tho’ you’re either a fool or a troll.
I believe, although my memory may be faulty on this point, that Dershowitz also holds correct views re the Second Amendment as well as the mutually supportive relationship between government (the State) and religion, broadly construed, that the First Amendment prescribes.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Dershowitz is one of a number of prominent liberals who have broken ranks to oppose the global jihad. Christopher Hitchens is another.
Given the nature and magnitude of the threat, it is a remarkable demonstration of the power of the 60s anti-war meme that more don’t do so.
At least during the Vietnam war, the enemy were communists, so lefties were only being consistent (if depraved) in siding with them. Today, nothing but cultural inertia seems to drive the liberal anti-war meme.
I love the opening line.
Easy there big fella...
Vastly Illuminating, September 25, 2004
|Reviewer:||Kat Bakhu (Albuquerque, NM United States) - See all my reviews
As gruesome as the Nazi-Soviet pact,
Major Addendum - Must Read!: There is a reason people outside of government should realize that they cannot simply glance at a government report and pretend to grasp it. Government jargon is as complex and nuanced as that in any scientific field. It takes years to truly master. So why am I not surprised all the amateurs are misreading the report? Here is what is said about the three levels of confidence in the reported findings:
High confidence generally indicates that our judgments are based on high-quality information, and/or that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment. A high confidence judgment is not a fact or a certainty, however, and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong.
Moderate confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence.
Low confidence generally means that the informations credibility and/or plausibility is questionable, or that the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or that we have significant concerns or problems with the sources.
Read these VERY CAREFULLY to understand the conclusions. They basically fall into (1) Highly probably but small chance it could be wrong; (2) Who the hell knows, its possible and some hints are there; and (3) Not likely. With only three levels this is all you get. So anything in the Medium Confidence category is really a guess.
Now look at the reports conclusions and it has two flavors. First is whether Iran stepped down from developing nuclear weapons in 2003 (after we invaded Iraq [hint, hint]):
We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program;
We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years.
OK, we spooked them by taking out Saddam so damn fast they stood back for a while from building their bombs. But are they STILL suspended in their activities (given Ahmedinejads and the UNs IAEAs recent statements this is an important question!). Apparently we do not know!
We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.
The NIE is quite clear. We know they stopped, we have no intel on whether they are still stopped or not. The reporting that Iran has stopped as of now is not accurate. Here is the scary part - Iran is still processing fuel! They dont NEED to process fuel for Nuclear Energy. Russia has offered to SELL THEM fuel if they return the spent fuel so it cannot be used to make weapons. Note this when reading this next finding:
C. We assess centrifuge enrichment is how Iran probably could first produce enough fissile material for a weapon, if it decides to do so. Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006, despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program. Iran made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, but we judge with moderate confidence it still faces significant technical problems operating them.
And there are more indicators Iran has simply decided to proceed with technology that is dual use - civilian and military - as a way to hide their intentions. Note that the NIE concludes with confidence Iran wants nuclear weapons. And one way to proceed is to do so under the cover of dual use programs:
D. Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so. For example, Irans civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing. We also assess with high confidence that since fall 2003, Iran has been conducting research and development projects with commercial and conventional military applicationssome of which would also be of limited use for nuclear weapons.
The fact is this is not the slam-dunk assessment it is reported to be. The centrifuges are the key. With Russias offer on the table to provide civil energy ready fuel the centrifuges are not needed for Irans civil energy needs. But the NIE is confident this unnecessary effort is continuing? Why is it continuing? Folks, they just dont know for sure and that is the bottom line. They know it was stopped in 2003, but they dont know if it has been restarted under dual use cover.
Now this from the Strata Sphere Blog:
Oh boy, are the sparks (and the pink slips and possibly the indictments) going to be flying soon in DC! Israel is hosting a meeting to present to the Joint Chiefs of Staff their hard evidence Iran is still working on nuclear weapons:
Disappointed after failing to make their case on Iran and influence the outcome of the United Statess National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released this week, Military Intelligence will present its hard core evidence on the Islamic Republics nuclear program on Sunday to the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff during a rare visit he will be making to Israel.
Admiral Michael Mullen will land in Israel Sunday morning for a 24-hour visit that will include a one-on-one meeting with IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, as well as with Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
Mullens visit to Israel will be exactly a week after the publication of the NIE report that claimed Iran had frozen its nuclear military program in 2003 and has yet to restart it. During his visit, Military Intelligence plans to present him with Israels evidence that Iran is in fact developing nuclear weapons.
The report clearly shows that we did not succeed in making our case over the past year in the run-up to this report, a defense official said Thursday. Mullens visit is an opportunity to try and fix that.
What is also clear is - beyond the fact the NIE was not a consensus that Iran continues to suspend their illegal and unreported nuclear weapons program - that the NIE dismissed views and inputs from non-US intelligence agencies. I would not be surprised if France and the UK intelligence ALSO disagree with the NIE.
You dont try one of these kinds of meetings with the top brass without having a bullet proof case. The IDF is basically circumventing normal channels through the US Intelligence Community and the State Department diplomats to send a clear message. I dont think I have ever seen anything like this before! And if the do prove the NIE is all spin then there will be an eruption back here in DC. Count on it. We do live in interesting times.
No lie or truth should be allowed to get in the way of going to war with Iran. Not one.
Dershowitz is Jewish, and may have relatives or friends living in Israel, or may just be appalled by the thought that the Iranians may soon have the ability to vaporize several million Jews. Other liberals are too obsessed with their hatred of the Bush administration to think that far ahead.
Welcome to FreeRepublic dirtymac.
Unfortunately President Bush appeared to endorse the report’s findings, so those who are skeptical will be marginalized. Just like he accepted the Scooter Libby verdict as if it was an honest judgment.
Did he really endorse the findings...or is it just that the Media wants to portray him as endorsing the findings/....?
In case you haven’t seen this one—plus Ernest At The Beach has some great links to other articles.
Thanks MS, I’m bookmarking these.
I just recall a short clip of him on TV the other day, where he seemed to be accepting it...if he said anything about reserving judgment, I missed it. He should listen to John Bolton’s warnings.
It is srange to see Alan lining up with the President.
Alan is supporting Israel, not the President. I don’t agree with him on much but I do appreciate his support of Israel. It has nothing to do with Bush.
Senate Republicans are planning to call for a congressional commission to investigate the conclusions of the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran as well as the specific intelligence that went into it, according to congressional sources.
The move is the first official challenge, but it comes amid growing backlash from conservatives and neoconservatives unhappy about the assessment that Iran halted a clandestine nuclear weapons program four years ago. It reflects how quickly the NIE has become politicized, with critics even going after the analysts who wrote it, and shows a split among Republicans.
Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.) said he plans to introduce legislation next week to establish a commission modeled on a congressionally mandated group that probed a disputed 1995 intelligence estimate on the emerging missile threat to the United States over the next 15 years.
Maybe Israel “ain’t” buying this bs.
Israel Considering Strike On Iran Despite US Intelligence Report
The Guardian (UK) ^ | 12-7-2007 | Rory McCarthy
Posted on 12/07/2007 3:43:43 PM PST by blam
Israel considering strike on Iran despite US intelligence report
Ahmadinejad is harmless bump
Thanks Ernest for this ping, and this pointer:
Dersh gets the current threat.
And David Horowitz always makes room for the American loving left.
Untold human suffering lay somewhere ahead on the road we now travel.
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