Stupid Intelligence

The recent national intelligence estimate that concluded that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 is just about the stupidest intelligence assessment I have ever read. It falls hook, line and sinker for a transparent bait and switch tactic employed not only by Iran, but by several other nuclear powers in the past.

The tactic is obvious and well-known to all intelligence officials with an IQ above room temperature. It goes like this: There are two tracks to making nuclear weapons: One is to conduct research and develop technology directly related to military use. That is what the United States did when it developed the atomic bomb during the Manhattan Project. The second track is to develop nuclear technology for civilian use and then to use the civilian technology for military purposes.

A Must Read:

Unholy Alliance :
Radical Islam and the American Left (Hardcover)
by David Horowitz

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Vastly Illuminating, September 25, 2004

Reviewer:

Kat Bakhu (Albuquerque, NM United States) - See all my reviews

I had long wondered why people on the Left had the propensity to speak more positively about people who would slit their throats than they do about their own country, which affords them more freedom and opportunity than anywhere else. David Horowitz has answered that question thoroughly and convincingly in his Unholy Alliance. Where I felt bewildered and confused, I now feel crystal clear. Unholy Alliance is such a great book.

It begins with the leftist movements at the beginning of the 20th Century, and works its way up to the present day, exploring the anti-American attitude of these movements in detail. Horowitz shows that the enemies of the US back then are largely the same group today, operating under the same misperceptions, making the same mistakes, and pursuing the same impossible utopia.

Individual chapters are included on the Patriot Act (I was persuaded that it is a GOOD thing); the democratic flip-flop on Iraq once G.W. Bush implemented what they agreed with Clinton needed to be done; the driving components of the current anti-war movement; as well as chapters on individual personalities who are major spokespeople of the Left. Horowitz covers a lot of ground, and he covers it concisely and clearly. Unholy Alliance is richly informative without ever being boring or plodding.

This book is so illuminating that I simply cannot do justice to it here. I love people who reason so clearly that they help me get my own reasoning clear. Horowitz is just that type of person! In the terrain of mindless clichés (no-blood-for-oil, etc.), he is a breath of real fresh air.

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Another review from Amazon:

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As gruesome as the Nazi-Soviet pact, May 14, 2005

By	Joburgpete "irridium" (Johannesburg) - See all my reviews

In this revealing work, Horowitz explores the hellish marriage between IslamoFascists and the highly networked American Left. These ideologues who once sided with the USSR and other repressive communist regimes have now wholeheartedly embraced radical Islam.

The agenda emanates from the extreme left but the influence extends far beyond, also encompassing liberal discourse and the mass media. It seems that this radical agenda has now succeeded in capturing the heart and soul of the Democratic Party.

Unholy Alliance exposes and dissects the Left in fine detail, seeking for answers to why it has made an alliance with a reactionary and oppressive religious ideology. Also why it tried to undermine the War on Terror by opposing the liberation of Afghanistan and Iraq. The fracture of the consensus in American politics is another topic discussed here.

Part One, A Defining Moment, takes the investigation from 9/11, the response of the Administration, and the Left's response to that. It shows how the Left declared war on the War on Terror and started organising demonstrations long before any action was taken, becoming the vanguard for Saddam and the Jihad terrorists.

Part Two explores the Mind of the Left in a series that includes communist forerunners, the transition after the collapse of communism, the New Left, the Utopian Idea, the Nihilist Left and the Anti-American Cult. Throughout the book, prominent personalities are highlighted. Among them is Noam Chomsky, discussed with reference to a New Yorker profile where this nasty professor's malice and distortion of historical facts are pointed out. Chomsky's less strident but equally deceptive intellectual twin Howard Zinn also features. His plodding bestseller A People's History of the USA is a prime example of anti-American propaganda.

The main areas of Leftist infestation today are academia, the mass media, literary circles and Hollywood. There is a powerful fisking of Norman Mailer and his detestable piece about 9/11 for the New York Review of Books.

Part Three takes a closer look at the alliance with radical Islam and how it operates. It is shown to be an update of the Nazi-Communist entente. The introduction of communist thought and methods into Islam began with the Khomeini revolution in Iran. The last decade saw the Islamic transformation of the Palestinian struggle, which was completed by year 2000.

Chapter 16, The New Radicalism, revisits the UN's Conference Against Racism in Durban, South Africa. This is where an array of dictators and tyrants met for a freakshow to condemn the West and where the Nihilist Left first showed its true colours. Israel, the USA and the UK were the only countries attacked by a bunch of the most oppressive regimes including Sudan and Zimbabwe. The atmosphere was moreover permeated with Jew hatred.

This conference brought together the radical Islamists with American NGO's and other Leftist organisations. The Ford Foundation funded it. Months later this coalition would re-emerge as a global movement against the War on Terror. From it also sprang the World Social Forum that first met in Brazil in 2001, another organisation dedicated to anti-capitalist nihilism.

Parts 4 looks at the War at Home by discussing the Anti-War protests and revealing by whom they were funded and organized. Homeland Security and the assault on the Patriot Act are further subjects. Part 5, A Nation Divided, demonstrates how the Democratic Party shifted from supporting Operation Iraqi Freedom to becoming vicious opponents using tactics unprecedented in a time of war. The transformation happened in a few months, as revealed by the words of people like Al Gore and Jimmy Carter.

The chapter Anti-War Democrats indicates how prominent leftists have achieved power in the Democratic Party. The epilogue deals with the 2004 presidential campaign, providing plenty of damning evidence from the rhetoric and tactics of the Kerry side. Horowitz concludes with the observation that there are now Two Americas that matter: An America that embraces its heritage and vision, and an America that has seceded from both.

Unholy Alliance demonstrates convincingly that the American Left today is far more dangerous than loony. The book concludes with 34 pages of notes and a thorough index. I also recommend The Anti-Chomsky Reader by Horowitz and Collier, The New Anti-Semitism by Phyllis Chesler, The Death Of Right And Wrong by Tammy Bruce, Eurabia by Bat Ye'or and Anti-Americanism by Jean-Francois Revel.

Re: Iranian Nukes [Cliff May]

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Monday, December 03, 2007

Re: Iranian Nukes [Cliff May]

Jonah, the purpose of this NIE is to prevent Bush from using military force during the remainder of his term to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program.

A friend, formerly at the CIA, tells me that while this NIE

does confirm Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons in 2002 and 2003, its conclusions that as to why it may have stopped the program and why this halt may have continued are debateable and speculation. These KJs [Key Judgments] have too much political spin. This assessment was strongly influenced by two hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials who oversaw it, both former State officials who fought tooth and nail against Bush WMD policies, especially Iran.

12/03 03:24 PM

And:

Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Production in 2003? How Convenient!

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For those interested here is the actual report (well caveated). H/T Kevin Drum.

Major Addendum - Must Read!: There is a reason people outside of government should realize that they cannot simply glance at a government report and pretend to grasp it. Government jargon is as complex and nuanced as that in any scientific field. It takes years to truly master. So why am I not surprised all the amateurs are misreading the report? Here is what is said about the three levels of confidence in the reported findings:

• High confidence generally indicates that our judgments are based on high-quality information, and/or that the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment. A “high confidence” judgment is not a fact or a certainty, however, and such judgments still carry a risk of being wrong.
• Moderate confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence.
• Low confidence generally means that the information’s credibility and/or plausibility is questionable, or that the information is too fragmented or poorly corroborated to make solid analytic inferences, or that we have significant concerns or problems with the sources.

Read these VERY CAREFULLY to understand the conclusions. They basically fall into (1) Highly probably but small chance it could be wrong; (2) Who the hell knows, its possible and some hints are there; and (3) Not likely. With only three levels this is all you get. So anything in the Medium Confidence category is really a guess.

Now look at the report’s conclusions and it has two flavors. First is whether Iran stepped down from developing nuclear weapons in 2003 (after we invaded Iraq [hint, hint]):

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program;
…
• We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
• We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years.

OK, we spooked them by taking out Saddam so damn fast they stood back for a while from building their bombs. But are they STILL suspended in their activities (given Ahmedinejad’s and the UN’s IAEA’s recent statements this is an important question!). Apparently we do not know!

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.

The NIE is quite clear. We know they stopped, we have no intel on whether they are still stopped or not. The reporting that Iran has stopped as of now is not accurate. Here is the scary part - Iran is still processing fuel! They don’t NEED to process fuel for Nuclear Energy. Russia has offered to SELL THEM fuel if they return the spent fuel so it cannot be used to make weapons. Note this when reading this next finding:

C. We assess centrifuge enrichment is how Iran probably could first produce enough fissile material for a weapon, if it decides to do so. Iran resumed its declared centrifuge enrichment activities in January 2006, despite the continued halt in the nuclear weapons program. Iran made significant progress in 2007 installing centrifuges at Natanz, but we judge with moderate confidence it still faces significant technical problems operating them.

And there are more indicators Iran has simply decided to proceed with technology that is dual use - civilian and military - as a way to hide their intentions. Note that the NIE concludes with confidence Iran wants nuclear weapons. And one way to proceed is to do so under the cover of dual use programs:

D. Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons, if a decision is made to do so. For example, Iran’s civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing. We also assess with high confidence that since fall 2003, Iran has been conducting research and development projects with commercial and conventional military applications—some of which would also be of limited use for nuclear weapons.

The fact is this is not the slam-dunk assessment it is reported to be. The centrifuges are the key. With Russia’s offer on the table to provide civil energy ready fuel the centrifuges are not needed for Iran’s civil energy needs. But the NIE is confident this unnecessary effort is continuing? Why is it continuing? Folks, they just don’t know for sure and that is the bottom line. They know it was stopped in 2003, but they don’t know if it has been restarted under dual use cover.

Posted by AJStrata on Monday, December 3rd, 2007 at 1:52 pm.

I am dropping a lot of stuff on your thread...hope that is OK...but it has such a great title....

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Now this from the Strata Sphere Blog:

Israel Takes On NIE

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Oh boy, are the sparks (and the pink slips and possibly the indictments) going to be flying soon in DC! Israel is hosting a meeting to present to the Joint Chiefs of Staff their hard evidence Iran is still working on nuclear weapons:

Disappointed after failing to make their case on Iran and influence the outcome of the United States’s National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released this week, Military Intelligence will present its hard core evidence on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program on Sunday to the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff during a rare visit he will be making to Israel.
Admiral Michael Mullen will land in Israel Sunday morning for a 24-hour visit that will include a one-on-one meeting with IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, as well as with Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
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Mullen’s visit to Israel will be exactly a week after the publication of the NIE report that claimed Iran had frozen its nuclear military program in 2003 and has yet to restart it. During his visit, Military Intelligence plans to present him with Israel’s evidence that Iran is in fact developing nuclear weapons.
“The report clearly shows that we did not succeed in making our case over the past year in the run-up to this report,” a defense official said Thursday. “Mullen’s visit is an opportunity to try and fix that.”

What is also clear is - beyond the fact the NIE was not a consensus that Iran continues to suspend their illegal and unreported nuclear weapons program - that the NIE dismissed views and inputs from non-US intelligence agencies. I would not be surprised if France and the UK intelligence ALSO disagree with the NIE.

You don’t try one of these kinds of meetings with the top brass without having a bullet proof case. The IDF is basically circumventing normal channels through the US Intelligence Community and the State Department diplomats to send a clear message. I don’t think I have ever seen anything like this before! And if the do prove the NIE is all spin then there will be an eruption back here in DC. Count on it. We do live in interesting times.

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