US Boxed in After Iran Surprise: Analysts

Space War ^ | December 5, 2007 | Staff Writers

[america4vr]

The threat of war with Iran has ebbed and with new UN sanctions now an even harder sell, the United States has scant options even if it were to reverse course and engage Tehran, experts say.

President George W. Bush insists that Iran remains a threat despite Monday's appraisal by US intelligence that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, a change of heart that has sent shockwaves around the world.

Ray Takeyh, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that in light of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE): "The military option is not just off the table, it's out the window."

Russia and China all but ruled out fresh UN sanctions against Iran after the NIE, which for Takeyh was evidence of today's US spy leaders refusing to "roll over" to the Bush White House after skewed intelligence before the Iraq war.

The NIE undermined the case presented by Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney that Iran poses an imminent threat that might require a military response, said Bruce Riedel, a former presidential advisor on Middle East affairs.

"A unilateral US military attack on Iran is off the table now, no matter what Bush says about 'all options are open'," Riedel, a Brookings Institution analyst, said.

"Russia and China have been vindicated in their argument that Iran does not have a weapons program. They will not support new sanctions now," he added.

"So, a bilateral dialogue makes sense," Riedel said.

"Will Bush do it? He will face pressure from the Democrats to be flexible but also pressure from the neo-cons to hang tough. My guess is he will not, and leave it to the next president to come up with a new approach."

[america4vr]

Let's deal with reality here. The better we know what we're up against the more effectively we can devise a strategy to have the wiliest motley crew of scurrilous ne'er-do-wells to fly the Jolly Roger hung by their own petard.

The Three M's of the Apocalypse, the Mad Mullahs of Mayhem

They've managed one political success after another, Hezbollah in Lebanon, terror bombings against the US and Israel, military interventionism in Iraq to a stunning degree. They deserve the most grudging of credit for their wily ways having achieved regional superpower status by leveraging a mediocre geo-political hand into a threat to be reckoned with.

The world is indeed intimidated by Iran's capacity at mischief-making armed only with conventional weaponry. the mere suggestion that it will soon acquire nuclear capacity is enough to make the hair on the back of necks britstle with terror. They have indeed cornered us and we had better find a way NIE report or not, to lead all of Iran's Mullahs straight to the gallows.

[Scythian]

We’re a bunch of wimps, plain and simple, that’s the only reason they still exist.

[samtheman]

We really got hoodwinked. My question is, who is behind it?

[SolidWood]

If America chickens out of this fight, Israel is the last hope. With Olmert and ilk it’s not really a comfortable thought.

[EQAndyBuzz]

“We really got hoodwinked. My question is, who is behind it?”

Clintonistas at State and the CIA.

[samtheman]

That’s what I was thinking.

[DoughtyOne]

Two words for you... JIMMY CARTER!

How this louse could destablize the world through his policies, is legendary.

Iran, Panama, Korea, Taiwan, Mainland China...

And I’ll bet we don’t know the half of it.

It took four years for this man to work most of his magic, all against the interests of the United States and the greater world community at large.

And still he rises up to spout off even today. Never was one so inept lofted to such a position. And this to our eternal shame. Look at the persecution, deaths and future wars this man ushered in.

[RC2]

Our country is only boxed in by the media. If we don’t want to be “boxed” in we won’t be. That’s a bunch of hype..........or, it’s our government being afraid to stand up for what our people believe.

[ryan71]

“...the United States has scant options even if it were to reverse course and engage Tehran, experts say.”

PC way of saying we’ve fxxxked ourselves.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

LBJ was a close second.

[RC2]

Remember one thing about Iran’s military. At one time they were rated as the third most powerful military in the world. The fourth was Iraq and Iraq kicked their butts. We all know how powerful the Iraqi military was.....non-existant. Iran’s military has the world fooled. All they have is numbers. Their equipment is not much better than WWII equipment but they have a lot of it.

[Brilliant]

Bush wasn’t planning to do anything about it anyway, but the Dems have done him the great favor of assuming the responsibility for a do-nothing policy. Now he won’t have to take the heat when it blows up in our faces. He can just say “I told you so.”

[DoughtyOne]

Two more words...

Great Society

[AGreatPer]

I don't think Carter had anything to do with it.

Sad to say, it's Bush's fault. He is the one that failed to clean out the Clinton appointed State Depaartment.

[Dr. Bogus Pachysandra]

Has that General been briefed by the Israelis yet?

[Caleb1411]

[Billthedrill]

Precisely. There is absolutely no option that the release of this document takes off the table. The only difference is that it doesn’t sound as good and that more people might yell at us later. Tough.

[jveritas]

Analysts are almost always wrong, in particular when predicting what President Bush will do. He will do what is right for the country and prevent the terrorist regime in Tehran from further enriching uranium which is the key ingredient to make the nuclear weapons, and he will do it by any means necessary to achieve the goal.

[Robe]

Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable;
when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we
are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away;
when far away, we must make him believe we are near.

SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR

[america4vr]

YOU SAID IT!!!

I've been thinking about it very meticulously recently as I was going to post a message that we ought to send the Plains Peanut Farmer/white trash's answer to Jesse Jackson to mediate the crisis because,
after all, he did all he could to engender the worst foreign policy loss in memory.

The Shah was no boy-scout but he was our guy, our despot, our ace, and to imagine how
mind-bogging-ly in our favor the world's geo-political status would be, is a very depressing
thought, indeed.

As John Lennon sang; imagine there is no religion. Imagine no Mullahs, too. Jeez.

[SolidWood]

At one time they were rated as the third most powerful military in the world.

That was under the Shah. Before the severe purges of the officer corps and the US arms embargo (the vast majority of Imperial Iranian arms were US, German and British made), the Imperial Iranian Army was argueably the strongest force in the region, next to Turkey. The Revolution weakened the Military extremely, which was exactly the reason Saddam smelled the momentum for an attack.

The fourth was Iraq and Iraq kicked their butts

Iraq invaded Iran because Saddam tried to annex oilrich Khuzestan province. Iraq failed in it's objective. Later in the war Khomeini tried to instigate an Islamic Revolution in Iraq. He failed aswell. The war ended in a stalemate, with both sides bled white and economically finished.

But Iran managed to repel the Iraqi agression, despite Saddam being pumped up mainly by China, Warsaw Pact and France, while Iran was relying on desperate human wave tactics beside some Chinese and bloc-free states support. Throughout the war, Iraq had the technological and strategic edge, but they miserably failed.

We all know how powerful the Iraqi military was.....non-existant.

...non-existant when compared to the mighty US Army. After being weakened by Iran, we blew away Saddams army in Desert Storm. Operation Iraqi Freedom gave them the rest. They were a mediocre cold-war level army at their heigth. They never were a match to our troops.

Iran’s military has the world fooled.

Absolutely true. Their military power is ridiculous and basically Chinese-Russian junk with US-sold leftovers from the 1970's. Their deterrent power is terrorism, oil and the prospect of nukes.

heir equipment is not much better than WWII equipment but they have a lot of it.

It's cold-war level at best, which they are unable to use effectively. In the Iran-Iraq war both sides were unable to use the US/British and Soviet armour respectively, effectively. They fought WW1 style... with comparable results.

[DoughtyOne]

Carter destabalized Iran. Iran would more than likely still be government by the Pelavi family if Carter hadn’t deemed them unsuitable, and withdrawn support. And the Pelavi family was pro western. Considering Middle-Eastern standards, it was a rather enlightened nation. It’s women were able to dress by western standards. Carter took it upon himself to fix things. Then came the Ayatollah Komeinie and major trouble. Here we are, with a nation seeking nuclear weapons to use against the west, and Russia and China lined up behind it.

[Iron Munro]

"Clintonistas at State and the CIA."

The shadow government that was left in place as a good will gesture of the Compassionate Conservative administration scores another direct hit with a shot in the back.

Because the president left most of the Clinton worshippers/supporters in place for the last 7 years we have really had 15 years of Clintonistas running the federal bureaucracies.

This NIE report is just more slime from Clintonistas designed to undermine President Bush and to influence government policy.
The president should fire and/or prosecute the three authors of the report but, being a compassionate conservative" he will just take another knife in the back.

Check this out:

"... according to the Wall Street Journal, Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE.
The Journal cites "an intelligence source" as describing Fingar and his two colleagues as "hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials."

But "...roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (emphasis added): Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors.
Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution.
We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons--despite its international obligations and international pressure.
This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons."

The above quotes from:
The Weekly Standard
NIE: An Abrupt About-Face

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/12/nie_an_abrupt_aboutface.asp

[SolidWood]

I don't think Carter had anything to do with it.

You are totally mistaken on this one. Carter's disastrous role in the Islamic Revolution (beside numerous other disastrous failures) can't be understated.

[america4vr]

I don't think Carter had anything to do with it.
Don't you get it?
AGreatPer is being totally cynical, sarcastic when he says he doesn't think Carter has anything to do with it. The lack of < /sarcasm off> merely an oversight. Yeah. < /sarcasm off>

[DoughtyOne]

We may not like it, but those Middle-Eastern states are very hard to rule by western standards. If it works in Iraq we’ll be very lucky indeed. Most of them have despotic rule because that’s the only rule that will stabalize the nation.

If we took down the leadership of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and a host of other nations, we would see massive carnage as a result. The Shah wasn’t a boy scout, but it’s my take that if Ronald Reagan himself were to rule Syria, he would have to use an iron fist approach.

As I recall, the Shah had a little over a thousand people in his prisons, that were so-called political prisoners. Have we not seen what the people of the Middle-East are capable of, if they want to activate a Jihad? It would be amazing for the Shah not to have had some ‘political’ prisoners.

Carter was such a sage...

[PreciousLiberty]

“He will do what is right for the country and prevent the terrorist regime in Tehran from further enriching uranium which is the key ingredient to make the nuclear weapons, and he will do it by any means necessary to achieve the goal.”

I sure hope you’re right! One thing I think people are failing to consider is that Iran may not need (much of) a nuclear weapons development program. Iran is enriching U-235, which is primarily (only?) suitable for a “Thin Man” type fission weapon. The US was able to make one of these in the early 1940s...how hard do you think it’d be today with computers, CAD, and the available body of scientific knowledge? I believe it’d be considerably easier than an implosion type plutonium device.

[SolidWood]

The sarcasm was very hard to detect in the comment... I ask for lenience.

[jveritas]

Exactly.

[SolidWood]

One of the ways Carter screwed up the Shah was the following:

The Shah (correctly) identified the two enemies in Communism and Islamism. He kept down Communism first by driving out the Communist seperatists in 1946, then by prohibiting the Tudeh party and later by secret police action (SAVAK).

Islamism was kept down by a different approach which was a mixture of police supression (especially when dealing with the terrorist Fedayeen in the 1950's), and bribery. Bribing the Mullahs to keep quiet proved to be effective for most of the 1950's-70's.

Then comes Carter and pressures the Shah on a) political prisoners (Communists) and b) to stop bribing the Mullahs. Carter with his misguided sense of "human rights" literally took the lid of the pot and it didn't take long for the Commies and Mullahs to instigate a Revolution. Carter withdrew his support to the Shah and literally let him hang out to dry. He eved cowed to the Mullahs threats and barred the Shah from entering the USA.

[DoughtyOne]

I agree. When Carter blocked the Shah from entering the U.S. it revealed the fraud (Carter) for what he was. The Shah was dying from Cancer. Carter, who used righteousness when objecting to the Shah’s tactics, none the less forbid him to seek medical attention in the United States. Carter was some Christian.

The Shah was an ally of the United States. When Carter sold him out, it sent the message around the world, the U.S. would sell out anyone. Carter went on to sell out Taiwan to the likes of Ho Chi Min’s pals.

Christians (not on your life) like Carter besmirch the reputations of all Christians. What a miserable failure of a man.

[america4vr]

In the name of lenience, then, you will be required to read ONLY two books written by President and Mrs. Carter chosen from the list below OR ONE Visit to the Jimmy Carter Library and Thrift Shop.

* Carter, Jimmy. Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006. President Carter offers steps to help bring permanent peace to Israel and Palestine.

* Carter, Jimmy. It Takes A Moron To Lose Iran and Other Poems. New York: Times Books. 1995. First collection of poetry by former President Carter. Reflect memories of his childhood, family and political life. Illustrated by his granddaughter.

* Carter, Jimmy. The Blood of Abraham: Insights into the Middle East. New edition. Fayetteville: University of Arkansas Press. 1993. This new edition has an extended chronology and afterward. Corrections have been made where needed and the chapter, "The Future", has been slightly updated.

* Carter, Jimmy. Christmas in Plains: Memories. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001. A portrait of Carter's family annual Christmas celebration in Plains, Georgia from his boyhood days to the present. Illustrated by Amy Carter.

[Publius]

...who is behind it?

There are at least 4 major factions within the Foreign Policy Community, and the neocons are only one of those factions. Each faction has its own vision of a unified planetary order and its own timeline, and these folks have no hesitation in thinking in terms of generations.

Three of those factions put aside their differences to unite and block the neocon faction from going to war in Iran. Each of these factions has its own reason for the existence of a nuclear Iran, and one of them is to block further attempts at an American world empire.

This is all about placing the Bush Administration's foreign policy in receivership. Something similar was done after Iran-Contra in 1987 when Colin Powell was moved into the Reagan Administration as National Security Advisor. If I am right about this, look for the resignation of Bush's foreign policy team over the next 3-4 months, starting with the Vice President.

[america4vr]

Great strategy. I’m just hoping someone in the White House is actually implementing it.

[bpjam]

And boxed in is exactly where the pinkos in State wanted Bush. And Bush apparently pawned his balls at some point and is afraid to even acknowledge that he is getting beaten up by bureaucrats who couldn’t fight their way out of a paper bag.

[SolidWood]

Sigh... How about planting some goobers?

[RightWhale]

The horse was dead last week within about 48 hours and now the story is the analysts who are beating the dead horse.

[america4vr]

Final offer: Work alongside Jimmy, building 3 homes for Habitat For Humanity in Gaza or the West Bank. Take it or leave it.

[samtheman]

Bleak, bleak, appraisal. The problem is, it sounds to bleak to be false.

[G8 Diplomat]

The Three M's of the Apocalypse, the Mad Mullahs of Mayhem

Thank you Jimmy Carter.

[G8 Diplomat]

Iran’s military has the world fooled

Indeed. Iran's military is hilariously ridiculous

[captnorb]

Our own state department

[ctdonath2]

In the world of military intelligence and international diplomacy, very little of what is really going on need be exposed to the world at large. These news items are probably just part of the game, and our approval or outrage is being played as part of a larger, unrevealed, strategy.

[america4vr]

Yes, of course. That’s always been true, about many things.

[america4vr]

The counter-intuitive, contrarian perspective in the way we humans respond to life.
The mind resolving not to lose control responding with wither the mindset of the optimist where
everything is going to be all right, nothing to fret about or the mindset of the fatalist, where there's
nothing I can do, my life as fated is preordained and there's no need to fret because there's nothing
I can do anyway.

[justa-hairyape]

Each of these factions has its own reason for the existence of a nuclear Iran, and one of them is to block further attempts at an American world empire.

Fools. It is not about American Empire. It is about keeping nukes out of the hands of terrorists, which is an important goal for every civilization on the planet. If Iran is nuclear, so is Hezbollha (remember how shocked the Israelis were when Hezbollha deployed an anti-ship cruise missile). How many large cities are the DC Marxist Cabalists prepared to see destroyed ? A righteous and just world would hold them personally responsible for the lives that will be lost.

[Irish Eyes]

Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.

SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR

Never heard that before. I like it.