Skip to comments.Giuliani Begins Retreat From New Hampshire
Posted on 12/18/2007 8:54:13 AM PST by Ol' Sparky
Rudolph Giuliani's decision to largely abandon the early voting state of New Hampshire and concentrate his efforts on the Florida primary three weeks later reflects an uncomfortable truth for the former New York mayor: The more he campaigned in the Granite State and the more he spent on advertising there, the more his poll numbers dropped.
(Excerpt) Read more at nysun.com ...
I think of all the candidates right now, the one that is the most excited to start each day has to be Huckabee.
Every day pretty well brings bad news for someone...except Huck. (I don’t like him, I’m just commenting on the horse race here). I didn’t think that I would see the day that Giuliani would have to fight him off in Florida. I’ll bet the Giuliani boys are getting a bit nervous right about now.
I realize that NH is dominated by the Boston media market, but I am surprised that it is not possible to buy targeted advertising on local cable providers in NH without also spending money advertising to Boston.
Of course, I am sure the rates on advertising are bid up in NH so much in the next few weeks that the tail is probably wagging the dog by this point.
stick a fork in ‘im.
A few weeks before Iowa in 2004, it was Howard Dean who was riding high. John F'n Kerry was bouncing along the bottom at 5%.
The system is designed to crush the early front-runner. If he has any flaws at all, he will not last.
And Mike Huckabee has flaws-a-plenty.
So what—I’m a flatlander and I still can’t stand him. What scares me is all the talk is focusing on a flatlander/Masshole like Romney.
McCain too. He's making his comeback at just the right time.
Thompson and Hunter are the only 2 conservatives....the rest are democrats in drag (and when I say drag I especially mean Giuliani).......
While true, the problem with that analysis is that Huck has already displaced a former frontrunner. Romney, like Dean, was looking good there for like 10 months. Huck knocked him out.
So I’m not sure who is going to emerge to knock out the new frontrunner. I know a lot of FR like to think that Fred is going to make a strong move there and anything is possible (theoretically) in politics. But Fred is trending down, from as high as 15 to south of 10 now, even slightly below Giuliani according the the latest realclearpolitics.com poll averages. The point being: someone is going to have to make a serious, serious comeback to knock out Huck. Rapid ascents are rare in politics, but comebacks are almost non-existent.
Unless Fred makes a move, Huckabee's main competitors are flawed as well.
If Romney can't dominate a state that he has outspent his main competitor in 10-1, he is loser. For good reason, he is flip-flopper no one finds credible.
Exactly. The only chance of a Kerry-like defeat of Huckabee is if Fred Thompson somehow makes a move in Iowa. That is going to be tough since Huckabee seems to have the Christian vote locked up.
Dean was not the first front-runner in 2004, either. I forget who was, but I know that Dean came on as an insurgent alternative to the early FRB (to use a hash term). Dean rose quickly and fell even quicker.
Fred's numbers were quite high before he announced. After he announced, his numbers started slipping. Therefore, if he expects to win, he needs to drop out of the race ;-)
I read someplace yesterday that he was doing just that. Some influential mayor endorsed him so he is buying in that market which is not the Boston mdeia market. He is hoping to get a large share of that market.
Looks like the field will soon be Romney, Huckabee and Thompson.
Kerry was the first front runner.
Remember that Iowa is not a primary state. It doesn't matter what the polls say. It's who can get their supporters to the caucuses at the time and place appointed.
Also keep in mind that no republican delegates are actually elected at the caucuses. We take a straw poll and we elect delegates to the county conventions, which then elect delegates to the state convention, which then elects delegates to the national convention. We won't know who really wins Iowa on the republican side for a number of weeks, yet.
Since the caucuses are about orgnaization, I wouldn't rule Romney out just yet (even though I won't be voting for him).
Don’t count either McCain or Romney out yet, unfortunately. Romney especially. He is really the one to beat IMO.
Here is Rasmussen's latest, with change:
Romney 33% (-1 from late November) McCain 18% (+3) Giuliani 15% (0) Huckabee 14% (0)
Here is the Realclearpolitidcs average: Romney 32.0 McCain 18.5 Guliani 16.5 Huckabee 11.0 Thompson 7.0
If you look at their timeline chart, the guy who has tanked the most in NH is . . . Fred, down from over 12% a month ago to 2% in the composite average.
Here is the MI primary composite poll: Guliani 22.5 Romney 20.3 Thompson 12.8 McCain 11.3 Huckabee 10.3
Finally, here is the latest SurveyUSA for FL: Guliani 29 Huckabee 24 Romney 20 McCain 10 Thompson 8
Now, I fail to see a "flatlining" of anyone except Fred. Indeed, he is falling across the board, except for SC; the Huckaboomlet appears to have peaked; and Mitt and Rudy still have their leads in, respectively, NH and FL.
“Looks like the field will soon be Romney, Huckabee and Thompson.”
Unfortunatley I see Romney, Huckester and McPain.
Dean was not the first front-runner in 2004, either.”
You might be thinking of Gephardt who was sort of the “frontrunner” until Dean announced. Once any actual campaigning began, ie, by summer of 2003, Gephardt was history and Dean caught on like wildfire. So I’m not sure there was ever any substance there for Gephardt. It’s just that no one else was running yet.
By June 2003, Dean was already on TV (the first candidate to do so). In July of that year, he won the Moveon.org “primary” and beat the stuffing out of the other candidates. In July of that year, he outraised everyone. By the fall of that year, Dean had the most money, the best organization and the most intense anti-war following. By Christmas, Dean had been endorsed by Tom Harkin and Gore.
Bottom line, Dean was a long, long time frontrunner in Iowa (like Romney). Then came January and the rest is history.
Fred’s numbers were quite high before he announced. After he announced, his numbers started slipping. Therefore, if he expects to win, he needs to drop out of the race ;-)”
As I have said on other threads, the more the voters see of Fred the less they like him. A lot of freepers think that is the sign of a winning campaign. I just don’t buy it.
I like Fred and all but I look for him to be gone after SC. He “should” do well there. But I don’t think he will. Especially after he comes in behind Ron Paul in NH. It is sad, b/c he would be a good President. But to become President, you have to run an effective campaign. And Fred has been pretty much a disaster in that regard. (But you never know....he “could” still, somehow, come out of this and surprise everyone....).
Huckster’s support is all media driven. He’s an empty suit like Obama.
Mr. Giuliani's slide in New York comes hot on the heels of a Rasmussen poll at the end of last week showing him in third place in Florida behind Messrs. Huckabee and Romney after easily leading the field since September.
Ta-ta Rooty it was nice .. wait, no it wasn't.
Anywho, the SS Rooty (ship #911) is sinking fast. His 'win the liberal blue state mega primaries' strategy ain't working. Besides losing FL now, Rooty is also losing in IL per the latest poll.
As to New York, if nominated (God forbid), Rooty goes down in flames to Hill in the general. He's always trailed her, a frigging carpetbagger. And in NJ which he had led, that's gone too now, The Beast beats him in NJ also.
The fact is there isn't a Gore-Kerry Blue State he (cough) 'puts in play', but there's many Red ones he'd lose. If he had an ounce of decency (sarcasm), he'd drop out now.
Rootie Julie Annie is....
An aside: I've never understood the rudybots infatuation and brouhaha with Rooty taking NJ's Electoral College votes while pooh-poohing Hill taking NY's in a cake walk. NJ has 15 stinking votes - 15! .. while NY has 31. That logic escapes me.
Giuliani set up the Feb 5th firewall for a reason. He needs to win on name recognition rather than substance.
By having the races closs together they have less momentum transfer with the ground troops.
But he still leads the National Polls! Put a fork in him, he no longer leads in any of the first major tests. Better start retreating all the way back to Manhattan Rudy.
Giuliani signs now populate all the real estate properties which the GWBush campaign USED to have.
First they were Jeb, then GWBush, then Crist, now Giuliani.
in various locations in the state.
I wonder if it matters that FL has been penalized 1/2 their primary delegates.
Tancredo is also.
I hope you are right, but I fear not.
I think Huckster has sort of stepped into a perceived void. While there are several legitimate socially conservative candidates, none of them can communicate their political positions in a way which resonates with evangelicals. Plus, he is sort of “likable” in that George W. Bush way. And he’s “compassionate” and a southerner and that is going to play pretty well in the primaries, at least leading up to Feb. 5. But...if he wins IA and SC, and performs admirably in NH and MI...and if he manages to WIN in FL, then watch out. Huckabee might just have a shot at this. Even with those early victories, he will get drubbed in NJ and Cali on Feb. 5. But I suspect in the midwest, Texas, OK, the rest of the south, he will do extremely well - whereas Giuliani would be looking to ride the wave of victory in each of those places where he would normally have some problems.
It is going to be an interesting two months.
Last night he kicked off a grueling, jam-packed two-week tour of Iowa, hitting just about every major city and plenty of cow-towns in the Hawkeye state. Did you hear about this on your news last night? The only place I saw this is right here on FR.
I met Fred and heard him up close and personal. Those that say he has no "fire in the belly" are horses' ashes.
Vis a vis the more loud GOP candidates, Fred does a lot of people-to-people campaigning, unheralded and under the media's liberal radar.
Let's see how he does in Iowa where he has never been expected to finish in the top two or three spots...and there are little expectations now.
Many folks may be surprised if he ends up in one of the top positions.
But after a sluggish start, Thompson has sensed an opening in Iowa, and he's moving decisively to exploit it. The opening arises from a combination of Romney's changes of position on social issues and Huckabee's stumbles on foreign-policy questions and immigration.
After his winning performance in the Des Moines Register's debate, Thompson has embarked on a lengthy bus tour of the state. During these final days, his campaign says he'll hold events in 50 communities and will visit 54 of the 99 counties.
On Monday, he picked up the surprise endorsement of Congressman Steve King. Of all the endorsements flying around these days, that one could move the most numbers. It sends a powerful signal from one of Iowa's most conservative leaders to others on the right around the state: We've now got a horse we can ride.
Many folks may be surprised if he ends up in one of the top positions.”
Perhaps, and hopefully, you are right and his retail politicking will pay off. That would be a pleasant surprise to me.
Now, that said, if that is the sort of effort it will take to turn it around elsewhere, then even an impressive silver in Iowa will rapidly become irrelevant.
With regards to how intense his campaign has been, though we are glad about his Iowa effort, did you happen to see the story about the Florida GOP bigwig gathering where every campaign shelled out $100,000 (!) to speak? All of the other candidates tried to make the most of the evening and spoke at length. Thompson, however, spoke for something like a minute and sat down. Basically he not only flushed that money down the toilet he rather dramatically underwhelmed some important GOP grassroots leaders in an important early state. Now I’m not crazy about the fire in the belly metaphor, either, but there is some sort of problem with a campaign that approaches important moments with that attitude, call it what you will.
But, though, back to your point. If his retail politics pays off in Iowa, then maybe his campaign will have found some life and he will stay in the race for a while. That would be nice, for sure.
One other point.
If Thompson ends up edging out Romney, then, wow, that campaign is DONE. I think then NH is in play and that would be interesting, b/c Huckabee isn’t a strong factor there as of now.
In any event, if you are right, it will make things more interesting.
Giuliani is a crook who doesn’t stand a chance...his name has been forced down our throats and this country is finally starting to throw him up...good god, the way this country is fed by the media and it’s supposed ‘chosen few’ is ridiculous...the fact someone like hillary is even running for political office says everything about how dumbed down people really are in the masses
honesty has no voice...integrity, reason, logic...these are words for dreamers and ‘nuts’
go back to sleep america...its only the primaries...your living room and beer stash won’t be disturbed...the CFR is the unseen church, the dollar is our imagination gone wild, the war our illogical-indefinite stance on defeating an ‘ism