Posted on 12/27/2007 1:03:26 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - The assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has dealt a severe blow to U.S. efforts to restore stability and democracy in a turbulent, nuclear-armed Islamic nation that has been a critical ally in the war on terror.
While not entirely dependent on Bhutto, recent Bush administration policy on Pakistan had focused heavily on promoting reconciliation between the secular opposition leader who has been dogged by corruption allegations and Pakistan's increasingly unpopular president, Pervez Musharraf, ahead of parliamentary elections set for January.
In Washington and Islamabad, U.S. diplomats urged that Jan. 8 elections should not be postponed and strongly advised against a reimposition of emergency rule that Musharraf had lifted just weeks ago.
The United States has poured billions of dollars in financial assistance into Pakistan since Sept. 11, 2001, when Musharraf made a calculated decision to align his government with Washington in going after al-Qaida and the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan. That move is blamed for several unsuccessful assassination attempts on him.
But it was not immediately clear, however, what if any influence Washington might have or whether Bhutto's death would drive the United States into a deeper embrace of Musharraf, whom some believe offers the best chance for Pakistani stability despite his democratic shortcomings.
"This latest tragedy is likely to reinforce beliefs that Pakistan is a dangerous, messy place and potentially very unstable and fragile and that they need to cling to Musharraf even more than they did in the past," said Daniel Markey, who left the State Department this year and is now a senior fellow at the private Council on Foreign Relations.
"The weight of the administration is still convinced that Musharraf is a helpful rather than a harmful figure," he said.
Amid the political chaos and uncertainty roiling the country in the wake of Bhutto's slaying, U.S. officials scrambled Thursday to understand the implications for the massive aid and counter-terrorism programs that have been criticized by lawmakers, especially as al-Qaida and Taliban extremists appear resurgent along the Pakistan-Afghan border.
Underscoring the concerns, a grim President Bush interrupted his vacation to personally condemn Bhutto's murder, demanding that those responsible be brought to justice and calling on Pakistanis to continue to press for democracy.
"We urge them to honor Benazir Bhutto's memory by continuing with the democratic process for which she so bravely gave her life," Bush told reporters at his Texas ranch, before speaking briefly to Musharraf by phone.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Bhutto's assassination would "no doubt test the will and patience of the people of Pakistan" but called on the Pakistani people in a statement "to work together to build a more moderate, peaceful, and democratic future."
Yet such calls could fall on deaf ears, experts said.
"The United States does not have a great deal of leverage where Pakistan is concerned," said Wendy Sherman, who served as counselor to former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. "And at the end of the day, the decisions are going to be made by the Pakistani people and by the leadership of Pakistan and not by the United States."
Other analysts warned that Bhutto's assassination might further damage Musharraf, whose democratic credentials have been seriously tarnished by growing authoritarianism, and have lead to widespread unrest.
"Legitimacy for Musharraf will be deferred if not impossible," said Christine Fair, a South Asia expert at the RAND Corporation. "The U.S. likely does not have a plan for this contingency as Musharraf remains a critical ally and because Bhutto's participation was hoped to confer legitimacy to the upcoming January elections."
She also warned that the murder could embolden militants in Pakistan to seek out other high-profile targets.
Bhutto, who served twice as Pakistan's prime minister between 1988 and 1996, was mortally wounded Thursday in a suicide attack that also killed at least 20 others at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi. She had returned to Pakistan from an eight-year exile on Oct. 18 when her homecoming parade in Karachi was also targeted by a suicide attacker.
The attempt on her life added to U.S. concerns about the country that had already been heightened by the situation in Pakistan, largely ungoverned frontier provinces where a truce between Musharraf's government and tribal leaders is credited with helping extremists regroup and reorganize.
In addition, Musharraf's declaration of emergency this fall, along with a clampdown on opposition figures and judges, irritated the administration, which was criticized in Congress for lax oversight of the nearly $10 billion in U.S. that poured into the country since he became an indispensable counterterrorism ally after 9/11/.
Under heavy U.S. pressure, Musharraf resigned as army chief and earlier this month lifted emergency rule to prepare for the elections. Bhutto's return and ability to run for parliament had been a cornerstone of Bush's policy in Pakistan.
Congress last week imposed new restrictions on U.S. assistance to Pakistan, including tying $50 million in military aid to State Department assurances that the country is making "concerted efforts" to prevent terrorists from operating inside its borders.
Under the law, which provides a total of $300 million in aid to Pakistan and was signed by Bush on Wednesday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also must guarantee that Pakistan is implementing democratic reforms, including releasing political prisoners and restoring an independent judiciary. The law also prevents any of the funds from being used for cash transfer assistance to Pakistan, but that stipulation had already been adopted by the administration.
___
Associated Press reporters Charles Babington, Desmond Butler and Eileen Sullivan in Washington and Ben Feller in Crawford, Texas contributed to this story.
AP scrambles to put out a story demonstrating how bad this is for the U.S.
Honestly, though, it’s bad for all mankind but you can’t expect the MSM to see the forest through the trees.
Geez.
What about the blow it deals to Pakistan?!?
AP never misses an opportunity, do they?
Hmmmm, other possible solutions - Have we considered borosilicates? How about a new country named Pyrexistan?
Great. Now we’re looking at ever more likely civil war inside a nuclear armed islamic country. I hope the USAF is keeping some bombers in the air ready to go in at a moment’s notice. We might need them.
Musharraf has democratic shortcomings, yaknow.
Let’s hope folks in Pakistan have cooler heads in a day or two and can continue their struggle to adopt a democratic system, even with all the obstacles from the extremists and AQ.
...no problem. India will protect Rome from Pakistan. ;-)
One way or another, the U.S. had to be sucked into the vortex of the spin on this. At least, they’re saying it hurts the U.S. — which is an improvement over saying that the U.S. is responsible. (That’ll probably be the message in the next spin cycle.)
Odd day when I find myself agreeing with one of Mad Mad Maddy's minions, but I do. It isn't obvious from the article why AP's analysts consider this a blow to U.S. policy other than the fact that we were encouraging a rapprochement between Bhutto and Musharraf that now will not take place. This might be described in a lot of ways but "policy" isn't one of them.
I note that al Qaeda has claimed credit for the murder, which should take some of the heat off Musharraf. The AP is yet to characterize al Qaeda as acting in the interest of U.S. policy by doing so but it can't be far away. Silly stuff.
Every Gulf ruler is watching this closely. Al Qaeda was probably responsible for it and I predict there will be a rush by those Gulf rulers to cooperate.
And Musharraf will be a bit more cooperative too. If they got her, they can get him. This was a bad strategic error on Al Qaeda’s part. Probably started the “end game”.
It may very well prove fatal to Al Quaida and the Taliban - depending on how many Pakistanis are ticked off over foreign terrorist intervention in their elective processes.
Did this hurt or help illegal immigrants in the US?
(sarc)
I've got to get me a cushy job like this guy. Being paid six figures a year, or more, to make such erudite statements? He make Joe Wilson look like Einstein...at least the Einstein that couldn't prepare his own tax return!
Just another reason to nuke Foggy Bottom and start anew.
Wait a minute here! He forgot to say that women and minorities will suffer most.
It is drivel. Only the deaf dumb and blind gave her a better than 100:1 shot at living through it all.
It is drivel. Only the deaf dumb and blind gave her a better than 100:1 shot at living through it all.
Sure, but nothing will be done they weren't going to do anyway. This changes nothing since she was not in office.
Hardly did we know that we had been blown...
Would someone with more understanding of what internal politics in Pakistan really are (not the AP version) explain why the US was pushing for Bhutto to return, for Musharraf to resign as army chief, etc?
Agreed. Unless the traitor media believes itself to be "Nuke Proof", they've got just as much at stake as any patriot.
Don’t get it.
Unless you are referring to us getting Bhutto back in Pakistan. I think it was a dumb move personally. But I guess that depends on one’s perspective.
Well, they’re right in the respect Bhutto’s death, on top of being a tragedy for Pakistan, is also a blow to the US and the entire Western world. It closes the only door that could have led to a stable and democratic Pakistani regime, one which would have enjoyed popular support at home and Western support abroad, and which also could have defused the tensions in the Indian subcontinent.
If AQ was really behind the assassination - which seems very likely, though they might have enjoyed a little help from the current Pakistani government as well - it goes to show that it now has a real geopolitical agenda. Blowing up trains or planes in the West will always be, at best, great propaganda coups, but it will never make AQ more powerful. Blowing up presidential candidates and increasingly unpopular autocratic regimes in the East will be where their actions really count.
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