Skip to comments.Rasmussen Sees A Republican Rebound
Posted on 01/02/2008 6:52:54 AM PST by jdm
Surveys in 2006 saw an erosion in Republican Party affiliation that opened the gap between the major parties from 1.6% to over 6%, favoring Democrats, by the end of the year. Twelve months later, the performance of the Democrats while controlling Congress has almost completely reversed the trend. Rolling into 2008, Rasmussen shows that Republicans have their highest share of affiliation since January 2006 and only trail Democrats by two points:
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. Thats the largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years, since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).
At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. Thats down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February....
Back in May, the Republicans fell to their lowest level of party identification of the past four years (30.8%). Then, the immigration debate raged in Congress and some Republican legislators helped defeat an unpopular Senate immigration bill. Republicans have gained ground in five of the seven months since then. But, the gains in December1.7 percentage pointsmatched the total gains for the previous six months combined.
The December gains for the GOP coincide with increased public confidence in the War on Terror. Its interesting to note that this did not improve President Bushs Job Approval ratings while helping the Republican Party overall.
The realignment comes at a "startling" time, Rasmussen notes. The report also suggests this as a reaction to the performance of Democrats in Congress. Nancy Pelosi has only a 38% approval rating, compared to 49% at the start of the year, suggesting that independents have lost confidence in her leadership, and possibly some Democrats. They note the sharp increase in December as a corollary to the improving confidence in the war on terror, which also suggests that the electorate may exact a price on Democrats for their strident defeatism throughout most of 2007.
It could mean something else as well. The past year gave voters a good look at the Democratic primary challengers, a thoroughly inexperienced lot. Given that the three Democrats with any chance of winning the nomination comprise less experience in national office combined than John McCain and no executive experience at all, some disenchantment may have set in with voters. It certainly doesn't give Democrats a reason to think that they have momentum for a general election -- in fact, this survey shows the opposite.
Independent affiliation has also dropped. This looks like former Republicans returning to the party. Self-described independents only make up 29.5% of the electorate, which is the first time since June 2006 that number has been below 30%.
After losing their first national election in four cycles in 2006, it looks like Republicans could rebound in 2008. They have the momentum, and they have closed the gap almost to where it was in November 2004. A few more months of Democratic incompetence in Congress could close the gap altogether.
I’d say it only indicated people are beginning to pay attention to politics.
If only we can get the remaining Republicans in Congress to ACT LIKE REPUBLICANS!
Who are these people who could vote for a Republican OR a Democrat?
The Mindless Middle.
Is there a chance the republicans will do something stupid to reverse this momentum?
Bush concurred. But not Reagan. He grabbed the microphone, gave the hosts his stern and disapproving look, and said that since he had paid for the mike, he was going to give every candidate a chance to make his case to the voters of New Hampshire"
-- ********** THE "G" BLOGS...by GyG http://www.network54.com/Forum/578302/ and.... http://gunnyg.wordpress.com/ Also known as Gunny G's Globe and Anchor Sites/Forums/Blogs.... ~~~~~
You see them every day. On the road, in the stores, on the job.
These are the mental midgets that corporations are so afraid of they must place instructions on plastic bags saying ... "WARNING: do not place bag over head ... it may cause suffocation"
You know ... those people you see and ask yourself how in the Hell do they even survive.
I expected something like this, but unfortunately I don’t think it’s because of conservatives “returning to the fold”.
I think it’s Democrats registering as Republicans in states where party registration is required to vote in the primary, so they can screw with the primary results - i.e., vote for Huckabee or Ron Paul or whatever.
We’re winning in Iraq — Americans like a winner!
Dims will cheat lie and steal to get to the white house. Don’t be suprised by anything they will pull come November and even after that.........
You slighlty miffed the story. The moderator had the mike turned off and that's when Reagan said "I paid for this microphone...".
“Id say it only indicated people are beginning to pay attention to politics.”
I think it means the Democrats have a very short period of time in which they must dump Reid and Pelosi like Tuesday’s trash. Unfortunately for them, I think those two will cling to power, no matter what.
ThankYa, but it isn’t MY story—I just referenced it.
I do, however, recall the story well, having seen the clip replayed many times on the lobotomy box over the years—not lately though.
If the ambulance-chasing trial lawyer should be elected President of the U.S., expect to see lots more of those warning signs.
Thank you sir!
You do fine work, and quickly.
But don’t you think there are Republicans crossing over to vote for the most unelectable Democrat in the primaries? If I could, I would.
I feel it is certain.
If we get a RINO candidate (Romney, in particular), I will cease to be a republican for several years.
I just won’t vote or participate -— and I rallied probably 100 people to the polls in New Mexico and raised probably 100,000 -— small potatoes, I know, but there are more disaffected conservagtives like me every day.
I can't really think of any good (or nefarious) reason people would do as you suggest in something like this.
I honestly don't think your conspiracy-type suggestion would really impact a study such as this even if it did rely on voter registration.
I think both Parties are pretty much trash. I vote GOP because they are the Lesser of Evils. However, I have no illusions about most Republican elected officials.
...thanks for the video clip....it reminds me of how much I miss Reagan.
from one of those other clips, I guess I’d forgotten that Carter was pushing for universal healthcare way back then
These figures are not based on voter registrations.
“These results are based upon tracking surveys of 15,000 adults per month. The margin of sampling error is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.”
This is just a public opinion poll and may or may not have anything to do with registration. Dems cross-registering can still tell Rasmussen the truth.
However, there's a big difference between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Democrats are light-years worse!
I'm a one-issue voter: Defeat the Democrats.
Thank you Captain for not using the word surge in your headline.
Sure, Republicans could cross over to pick the most unelectable Democrat - but who the heck knows who that is? I would guess it’s Hillary, but one, I don’t think she’ll need much help to win her primary, and two, I don’t think even the most evil and conniving Republican could stomach both registering Dem -and- pulling a lever - any lever, even as a means to sabotage - for her. Imagine the remorse if she somehow won, heh.
Pubs have reason to vote in their own primary. Dems really don’t, all their candidates are pretty much the same, differing only in style.
Candidates don't pay to participate in debates --- do they? That was a New Hampshire primary debate in 1980?
“This is just a public opinion poll and may or may not have anything to do with registration. Dems cross-registering can still tell Rasmussen the truth.”
Dems... telling truth?
Come on now. Where ya been? This is the party that fights all attempts to require voter ID, that brings out legions of the dead to vote, etc. etc. They’re habitual liars and connivers. If they register in order to screw with the Pub vote, they’ll “cover their ass” by telling the pollster they’re a Republican just out of habit... when you’re pulling a con, you don’t tell -anybody- what the real gig is.
Sure, it wouldn’t matter, no pollster is going to tie that to their vote, but it’s just the sort of habit of trying to be consistent in their lies that habitual liars are prone to.
He paid for it as a taxpayer. It was a reminder that government is supposed to be “by the people, for the people”.
Thanks for the explanation. And sending it to me promptly and in a kind and gentle way. I thought it was too obvious of an answer.
You are part of what I love about Free Republic. Regards, Margie
That seems to be there problem friend , they need to act like and be conservatives.
Any rebound will be of little use if we fail to nominate Fred for President. The RINO nominee will sink the entire ticket.
These are Dem voters, not officials or party leaders.
I'd agree except that most Americans don't know that we're winning.
Yeh—both RR and Fred were second rate actors—only RR was actor enough to meet the minimum qualifications for the gubmint dole...
Just Plain Dick
With the other candidates (besides Bush and Reagan) in single digits, the Nashua Telegraph offered to host a debate between Reagan and Bush. Worried that a newspaper-sponsored debate might violate electoral regulations, Reagan subsequently arranged to fund the event with his own campaign money, inviting the other candidates to participate at short notice. The Bush camp did not learn of Reagan’s decision to include the other candidates until the debate was due to commence. Bush refused to participate, which led to an impasse on the stage. As Reagan attempted to explain his decision, the editor of the Nashua Telegraph ordered the sound man to mute Reagan’s microphone. A visibly angry Reagan responded “I am paying for this microphone, Mr. Green!” (the editor’s name was in fact Jon Breen). Eventually the other candidates agreed to leave, and the debate proceeded between Reagan and Bush. Reagan’s quote was often repeated as “I paid for this microphone!” and dominated news coverage of the event; Bush did not make an impact with the voters.
Sad but true.
Well, that’s good news at least.
The last time I crossed over and voted for the least electable candidate--HE WON THE ELECTION!
The last time I held my nose and donated to a Democrat politician, he was my state senator and had offered to help me with a very difficult problem. I was the unwitting victim of a severe injustice. He was a rock-bottom sleazebag (typical of Democrat politicians). After months went by, I realized he wasn't going to help--as he had promised to do--(he didn't even bother to let me know)--and was a complete scumbag. He fully intended to exploit me and my unhappy circumstances to his advantage (typical of Democrat politicians) and was only interested in what he could get out of it all for himself (typical of Democrat politicians). I vomited.
Then I called a state rep., a Republican, to whose campaign I had donated. I had attended a fund-raising party on his behalf. He was also a sleazebag--but at least he told me he wasn't going to help.
A distant relative contacted a Republican politician, a "friend" of his, in my behalf. However, when I spoke with this Republican politician, he was insulting and told me that he would not help me. He was also a sleazebag, but, again, at least he told me to get lost--unlike the vastly more sleazy Democrat.
Then I finally contacted my state rep., whom I didn't know--and Independent. He was a first rate, first class, absolutely wonderful man, who turned out to be one of my heroes. He still is. He helped me. He solved my problem quickly and justly. Afterward, when I asked him--in all confidentiality--how I could repay him (I was careful to ask him in utter privacy, and I thought, from my experience with the Democrat and Republican politicians, that he might just name his price), he said that my happiness and good citizenship were the only repayment he wanted. He will always be one of my heroes. Needless to say, he was not re-elected in the next election.
There is more good than evil in human nature. However, politics attracts degenerates, sociopaths, the greedy, and other undesirables like a magnet and skews the population of elected officials toward evil. Only a moron or a fellow sleazebag would want to empower these scumbag politicians further or to increase the size, reach, appetite, and power of the governments that are their instruments for exploiting the general population.
But of all the scumbags I encountered during this ordeal, the heroes (there were others too) were like brilliant suns. I revere them. They are like Scott Beamer. The world is full of heroes--most of them average people like you and me--lost in the crowd.
But politics attracts anti-heroes, sleazebags, degenerates, sociopaths, and other assorted undesirables like a magnet.
Thank you for sharing. Good day, Vermonter.
A Presidential candidate who appeals to a broad range of Republican voters could help bring Republican Congressional candidates along, too. I think Fred is that man.
The Democrats only won their majority by very slim margins in some places, so they are vulnerable. The fact that they acted so arrogantly after they took the majority in Congress only helped turn folks against them.
“I don’t understand the “meaning” behind I am paying for this microphone. Can someone direct me to the explanation?”
.....I just got in and saw that others have answered your question better than I could have....it seems like in every campaign there’s always one “punch line” moment that stands out....that was one for Reagan....others that come to mind:
“I knew John Kennedy and you’re no Kennedy”Lloyd Bensen
“Where’s the beef” Walter Mondale
Stonewall - How about Kerry's "reporting for duty." That was defining also. His presentation that night made a very positive impression on me. I thought - He seems strong. I always was partial to anyone serving our country. Then it turned out to be a defining line in the most fake hero boy way.
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