Posted on 01/03/2008 9:51:20 PM PST by xjcsa
Several people had asked me to post an after-action report from my experiences tonight, so here it is.
I attended the caucuses in Waterloo, IA, with a few of my friends. Waterloo is in Black Hawk County (pop. 125,000), which was the only "urban" county in Iowa to have all the caucuses at a single location tonight.
We got there early, and it was a good thing. The main parking lot was filling up fast when we got there, and people kept streaming in. Turnout was HUGE. Local media reported turnout at our location of more than 5,000 voters!
We stood in line to get our ballots and info for our precincts, and then everyone who could fit went into the auditorium for the candidate speeches. Only about 800 of us fit in the auditorium (if that); the rest were crammed into the lobby trying to watch on closed-caption TV.
Candidate speeches were scheduled to start at 6pm, but due to the extremely long lines and people still trying to get into the building, they didn't start until 6:30. Even then, they had a US Senate candidate speak, and several others spoke, before the actual candidate speeches.
The auditorium session opened with a prayer, the national anthem, and Pledge of Allegiance.
The first candidate speech was for Mike Huckabee, and it was delivered by...Mike Huckabee, in person. He had apparently been stuck in traffic for 30 minutes trying to get to the school; cars were lined up for something like a mile trying to get in. Crazy. There was clearly a large Huck contingent; he got loud cheers.
The second candidate speech was for Ron Paul. It was delivered by...Ron Paul. Dr. Paul was actually in the lobby when we arrived, shaking hands. Very friendly guy. He gave his usual stump speech; parts got a good response and parts got silence.
The third candidate speech was from some guy from Alabama I've never heard of, but apparently he's running for president (yes, he was the actual candidate). I can't believe they let him speak, and he droned on forever.
The fourth candidate speech was on behalf of Fred Thompson, and it was delivered by Bill Salier (who was Tancredo's state campaign manager). Salier made one heck of a good speech, and kept it short and sweet. Just ripped on Tom "Dung Heap" Harkin as the worst person in Iowa. Great speech, might have changed some minds.
The final candidate speech was on behalf of Mitt Romney, and it was delivered by his wife, Ann Romney. She was classy but not very lively, but it was a good speech.
After some general announcements, the county sheriff's office made some announcements about parking (listed the names of about a dozen people whose cars needed to be moved for safety reasons) and let everyone know they needed to be patient leaving with so many people crammed into the building.
We then adjourned to our precincts, at tables throughout the building (lobby, gym, cafeteria, auditorium, etc.) There were STILL people trying to check in out in the lobby and people trying to get to the building; there was just no parking left and some people were walking nearly a mile from their cars to get there.
By the time we had adjourned to go to our precincts and vote, the night had been called by the media for Huckabee (yes, before we even started voting at the largest location in the state). I used that as an opportunity to peel off Huckster supporters for Fred. Huckabee people tend to despise Romney, so I told them to vote for Fred to try to push him past/close to Romney, and several agreed.
Getting out of there was like leaving a sold-out college football game. Slow traffic, cars lined up for a long distance. But it was a fun night, and a huge turnout, much larger than expected.
908 Huckabee
748 Romney
385 Thompson
283 McCain
274 Paul
61 Giuliani
9 Hunter
These are actual individual votes, although they actually add up to a lot less voters than reported by local media (and it seems low for what I saw, although it's really hard to judge crowd size in the building we were in). This adds up to 2,668 votes, vs. over 5,000 reported by local television. It's also possible that some of the precincts haven't called their results in yet; they all called in separately by precinct even though they were in the same building, and I see that 7% have not yet reported.
Any idea how many of the Huckabee voters were Democrats?
Thanks, good report.
Yes...Florida 2000 all over again, calling the results early. It’s the old trick.
Essentially none. They're die-hard Republicans and evangelical Christians who don't want to hear you talk about Huck's actual positions on anything but abortion and gay marriage. I know a lot of them personally (I'm an evangelical Christian myself), and it's a strange state of mind. I don't understand it at all.
To be fair, we were running *really* late, and Huck's win was larger than our total vote. They may not have even realized that we hadn't voted yet; hard to say, although there was a significant media presence there.
Nice write-up.
Do you have to register in Iowa or is it an open ballot state?
Given that the Dem candidates are pretty much clones, I can’t help but think that a lot of Huckster votes came from Dems voting for the biggest glass jaw Republican candidate they could hope for.
Thanks for answering my post!
You have to register, but you can do so at the caucuses. If you're a registered Donk but you want to vote for Ron Paul, you have to re-register as a Pubbie at the caucus location.
Did the Huckabee voters seem informed on the issues? What seemed to be their reason for supporting him?
What were their impressions of Fred?
These are the folks Fred needs. Just a few of them.
Found it - his name was Hugh Cort, and he would just not shut up.
Thanks for the report, and good work in derailing a couple of the Huckster’s supporters over to the right side (GO FRED!).
I’m a baptist and I can’t understand the admiration of Huckabee outside of the fact he talks about God without shame and about socially conservative issues without apology. Huckabee should provide a lesson for all Republicans and that is social conservatism isn’t something to be ashamed of. Now I will caveat that with the fact that Huckabee talks a socially conservative game but is a light weight when it comes to reality.
They're informed on abortion and gay marriage; they consider everything else kind of secondary until you explain just what a nanny-stater Huckabee is, and they still stay with him, usually. They support him because he's strongly pro-life, and because he's an evangelical like them. It really is identity politics like Rush says; they identify with him and don't care that he's basically a pro-life John Edwards.
What were their impressions of Fred?
Fred is the second choice for most of them; if the caucuses were still a few weeks away Huck would probably lose a fair number of votes to Thompson.
These are the folks Fred needs. Just a few of them.
Yep. I should also note that the Huckabee people tend to despise Romney; they *really* don't like him at all. But they like Thompson.
Thanks for the report. You said Paul spoke there and received a mixed reaction - could you elaborate?
No problem.
It IS a strange state of mind- and worrisome to see.
Thanks for the after action report.
Very positive reaction on Constitutionalism, stony silence on foreign policy and goldbugism (except from his core supporters).
...maybe “goldbuggery” is a better word...
Well, at least we know there are 9 conservatives in Iowa.
I believe I coined that term, “goldbuggery,” which combines “goldbug” with the British term “buggery.”
Missed that one...very informative.
Strange state of mind...that’s what I thought.
My guess is these are good people starved for a real Christian to support. They don’t know much about the issues, just that Huckabee is a Southern Baptist preacher and that’s good enough for them.
As a Southern Baptist in SW Missouri, I can tell you they will be pretty hard to sway. They’re probably excited that a candidate talks about faith so openly.
However, I think Huckabee, intentionally or not, is using faith in much the same way Jimmy Carter did. Heck, I voted for him when I was 18. He turned out to be a liberal, socialist wackjob.
Those who support Huckabee have little interest in the details of politics and it will be a handicap for other Republican candidates. Romney and Rudy will not do so well for a number of reasons. Fred is probably going to have to visit a few churches to make his case.
I don’t think much of Huckabee, but I’m not going to bash those good people who supported him. I think many of them could be swayed, in time...they don’t get in a hurry about anything.
The MSM is going to promote Huckabee to these folks, in a bait and switch. If he is nominated, they’ll pound him as a crazy Christian who will administrate from the pulpit.
We need to get the party united as soon as possible. Fred Thompson is our only shot. Romney, Rudy and McCain cannot...the divisions run too deep, even here on FR.
Yuk. Thanks for the report.
Good analysis.
Those folks elected Bush twice.
“...his name was Hugh Cort, and he would just not shut up.”
Thanks! Cort is from the Birmingham area. Our local Phenix City nut probably could not find Iowa. You should see the campaign billboard vehicle he drives around. He is way out there. If I have to deal with local Phenix City politicos much more I’ll go nuts too.
Excellent observations...you have done a fantastic job hosting the results thread and such.
I have an ad agency...we do market research and focus groups as well. Much can be learned by listening and asking the right questions.
The candidates had better learn something from Iowa, cuz the Northeast is NOT going to carry a Republican to victory.
That just irks me. Yea with the differences in percentages it probably didn't change anything but I really wish news outlets would stop calling elections before some people have even voted.
Learn something about Iowa voters ping.
This is real information, not cheerleading. The Thompson campaign needs to learn from people on the ground.
“Yep. I should also note that the Huckabee people tend to despise Romney; they *really* don’t like him at all. But they like Thompson.”
Do they have an aversion to Romney’s faith? It seems that the majority of obsessive-compulsive Mitt-bashers think “Mormonism is a cult” is a top issue for 2008. How much of that is a factor, since this is ‘identity politics’?
Thanks for a great report.
Thanks for the report. I am sad that out of 125,000 people, only 5000 turned out to vote. Americans are truly sheep!
You said if the caucuses had been a few weeks away, many of them probably would have voted for Fred.
That is very important for South Carolina.
Fred has time to make the case while hoping these voters learn more about Huckabee.
They are NOT going to make quick decisions.
Those are Huck's only two conservative stances, pretty much everything else he's pure liberal.
The Rs were in the middle school library, and the Ds were across the hall in the lunch room. Soon we were too crowded, so we moved to an older gymnasium and the bleachers. Then the Ds got too crowded, and they had to move to the new gym. Funny thing is, the only way there was thru the old gym, and every D caucus attendee had to parade in front of all the Rs in the bleachers. There was some light hearted jawing going on, so that was fun.
We said the Pledge of Allegiance, formalized the meeting chair, and elected two central committee members. A supporter for each candidate was found, and given up to 3 minutes to discuss the candidate. Guiliani's guy read the website bullet points, no one spoke for McCain, or Hunter.
I was the speaker for Ron Paul. I know his majority opinion on FR. I'm not psycho. I like Fred and didn't decide until yesterday. I started with a "I'm Pappy Smear (well actually my real name), and I approved this message." Got the cheap laugh. Mentioned how next door they were talking about the witch. More cheap laughs. Talked about how instead of voting for the lesser of two evils, we all had a lot of pretty good choices. A older guy spoke for Huck, a reluctant guy got up for Fred, and a guy got up for Tancredo, and then basically said he was voting for Paul. That was nice for me. Everybody pretty much clapped for every speaker.
Ballots were passed around, and the reps for each candidate went to observe the vote counting. Very friendly, we are all on the same team you know. We double counted the votes, and after 149 votes it went:
Huck 64, Paul 25, Romney 25, Fred 25 (freaky, huh?) McCain 8 and Guiliani 2.
We called in our votes to the Iowa Gop, and then whatever people were left voted on platform planks for the county convention. I didn't stick for all of that, and was home by 8:30.
Well, there are probably only about 30,000 registered Republicans, so one out of six is a little better. I don't know how many Dems caucused in the county; they were dispersed to a lot of locations.
In my opinion Fred should go negative on Huckabee on foreign policy and environmental alarmism.
I still think that if Fred would come out and poke a sharp stick in Al Gore's eye (call global warming a hoax and a scam), he would gain a ton of support.
And the media knows this. Fred was the choice in Iowa.
Huckabee's issues were never examined by the press. They knew Fred would have won Iowa if prople knew about the Huckster.
yitbos
Thanks for the report and your support of Fred.
Thanks for the report. I think you are right about the timing in relation to how the votes lined up. Even one more week might have made a huge difference., but these primary/caucus schedules just keep moving forward.
Still, that fact is really quite encouraging. Huckabee's national numbers have fallen greatly and will continue to fall in the weeks ahead. Most of that support won't flow to Romney. It's good news overall.
Thanks again for supporting Fred and for taking the time to report back to us.
Yup. Global warming, gun control and...illegal immigration.
Fred needs to talk about his values as well. I heard him on Mark Levin Wednesday night...Levin asked him direct questions about abortion and gay marriage. Fred is opposed to both, clearly and firmly.
A lot of these people wonder why there are no prayers at high school graduations any more. They’ve had their religion assaulted in the schools, the government, the media and the entertainment world...from elitist Republicans and Democrats alike.
Huckabee was a simple breath of fresh air.
yitbos
Good observations.
Always good to hear from you, NVA.
He's Jimmy Carter the Second.
God have mercy...
Way Back Then, I had a good friend, who was a diehard Carterbot. In exasperation -- reason having failed -- I blurted out that he sounded like a typical Christian Carter- (I forget the suffix).
He snapped right back at me that I sounded like a typical Christian Reagan-(same-suffix).
Argh.
We both ended up regretting the outcome -- he, because he'd been fooled, and me, because the whole country got screwed by that slimy piece of work Carter, who still plays the "holy man" card. Abolutely revolting.
As I close in on sixty years of age, I am beginning to understand why God was always griping about stuff that usually began with, "My people are..."
Some day they'll put the a picture of "the evangelical movement" next to the definition of, "Like sheep to the slaughter."
Frankly, the whole thing about being scorned for being "negative" and "cynical" (with the occasional "of little faith" tossed in for good measure) has worn really thin.
I will NOT vote for someone who will be bad for this country simply because he bears a "C" by his name. And I was a Southern Baptist Sunday School teacher!
I've earned my "C"-Man-Card -- Raised a secular "Noo Yawk" Jew. Was a radical leftist hippie freak back in the '60s. Knew Abbie Hoffman and the rest of that crowd. Became a Christian almost 40 years ago. Baptized in a then-famous AOG church in NYC. Did volunteer work at a Teen Challenge coffeehouse (the things I've seen would curl your hair, and make "The Exorcist" seem like a very tame Disney movie). Was a travelling minister. Spoke at conferences (mainstream stuff, i.e., FGBMFI affairs and so forth), TV interviews, even started a church.
But, I maxxed-out on "Churchianity" about twenty years ago, and haven't attended since then.
The evangelical/charismatic church has become a severely commercialized pop-culture parody of the "polyester christian" -- and, I'm sorry, but I just do NOT fit into that "culture"!
Sometimes I wish the Amish had "open enrollment period" days.
Obama Hussein Barack, or Mike Jimmy Carter Huckabee. That's some catch, that Catch 22.
Aaaarrrrrrggggghhhh......!!!!!
Very insightful and informative. Thanks. It makes me think Iowa and the Huckster may be a one-time deal -- that he can't expect evangelicals to dominate the polls like this anywhere else.
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