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REALCLEAR POLITICS How Clinton Won-(Popular Among The Old, The Poor, And the Uneducated)
Real Clear Politics ^ | 01-08-08 | Jay Cost

Posted on 01/08/2008 11:06:03 PM PST by tcrlaf

Hillary Clinton won last night by putting together the voting coalition that has held Democratic frontrunners in good stead for 75 years.

Take a look at these numbers - all of which come from CNN's cross-tabulated exit polls. Hillary won many elements of the traditional FDR coalition.

-Self-identified Democrats made up 54% of the electorate. She won them, 45% to 34%. -She won voters without a college degree, 43% to 35%.

-She won voters with incomes less than $50,000, 47% to 32%.

-She won voters over the age of 65, 48% to 32%. She also won voters in their 40s (44% to 33%) and their 50s (39% to 30%).

-She won Catholics, 44% to 27%.

-She won urban voters, 43% to 35%. She won suburban voters, 42% to 31%.

-She won voters from union families, 40% to 31%.

-She won voters who said they have been "falling behind" economically, 43% to 33%.

-She won long-time voters, 38% to 33%.

Obama, on the other hand, had a very different electorate -He won Independents, 41% to 31%. -He won voters with at least a college degree, 39% to 34%.

-He won voters who make more than $50,000, 40% to 35%.

-He won college age voters, 60% to 22%. He split voters in their late 20s, 35% to 37%. He won voters in their 30s, 43% to 36%.

-He split Protestant voters, 36% to 36%.

-He won rural voters, 39% to 34%.

-He split voters from non-union households, 39% to 38%.

-He won voters who said they were "getting ahead" economically, 48% to 31%.

-He won first time voters, 47% to 37%.

An additional ingredient to Clinton's success was a victory among female voters, 46% to 34%. Obama won male voters, 40% to 29%. But female voters outvoted male voters, 57% to 43%.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: election; fraud; hillary; newhampshire
A VERY good analysis of what happened...

THE MONEY QUOTE: Some pundits will probably reference Saturday's debate or Clinton's near-crying moment as reasons she surged late. The exit polling does not back this up. Obama won voters who decided sometime between a month and three days ago. And the two split voters who decided today - 39% to Clinton, 36% to Obama. Clinton dominated among voters who said they decided earlier than a month ago, 48% to 31%.

This supports the idea that Clinton won by mobilizing the traditional Democratic coalition that is demographically inclined to her. You don't just win elections by persuading people you're the best candidate. You win elections by getting those people out to the polls. This appears to be what Clinton did.

Accordingly - the implication is that the polls were wrong not because of last-minute shifts. They were wrong because they underestimated Clinton's ability to draw out her base.

1 posted on 01/08/2008 11:06:06 PM PST by tcrlaf
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To: tcrlaf
So stupid, poor, old codger's support Clinton. How about dead people supporting her, thats more like it.
2 posted on 01/08/2008 11:12:37 PM PST by svcw (There is no plan B.)
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To: svcw

Dead people don’t get exit polled....


3 posted on 01/08/2008 11:13:33 PM PST by tcrlaf (VOTE DEMOCRAT-You'll look great in a Burka!)
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To: tcrlaf

**-She won Catholics, 44% to 27%. **

Correction

-She won Catholics in Name ONLY, 44% to 27%.

A REAL Catholic would not vote for Clintoon, because she has support abortion, including partial birth abortion.


4 posted on 01/08/2008 11:15:20 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: tcrlaf

***cough, cough***

I’m not dead yet....

Wait, I’m not one of the sum bitches who voted for her, nor would I EVER vote for her.

God I hate election season......can we shot them like it’s duck season?


5 posted on 01/08/2008 11:17:10 PM PST by occamrzr06
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To: occamrzr06
Monty Python, "Mary Queen of Scots" sketch...

"I think she's dead"

"No I'm not!!"

6 posted on 01/08/2008 11:21:00 PM PST by gov_bean_ counter ( Who is America's George Galloway?)
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To: Salvation

She won urban voters, 43% to 35%. She won suburban voters, 42% to 31%.


7 posted on 01/08/2008 11:22:30 PM PST by trumandogz (Hunter Thompson 2008)
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To: tcrlaf

Clinton voters won, because they are radical man-haters. Almost all of them are sure to actually get out and vote. Quite a few years back, I researched their internal activities and histories. Shalala was the one most influential person in starting to get the Clinton herd together long before the ‘90s. If Obama supporters could get more of their people out to vote, he could win. Thus, one of the differences between the various survey results and the actual vote in NH.


8 posted on 01/08/2008 11:25:06 PM PST by familyop ("I'll buy that for a dollar!" --C.M. Kornbluth, in "The Marching Morons")
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To: tcrlaf

Well, how’d she do with FEMALE voters?

We can’t ask how BO did with black voters because they are, what, 2% of the NH population?


9 posted on 01/08/2008 11:28:45 PM PST by ProtectOurFreedom
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To: tcrlaf
"An additional ingredient to Clinton's success was a victory among female voters, 46% to 34%. Obama won male voters, 40% to 29%. But female voters outvoted male voters, 57% to 43%."
10 posted on 01/08/2008 11:29:10 PM PST by familyop ("I'll buy that for a dollar!" --C.M. Kornbluth, in "The Marching Morons")
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To: tcrlaf

You can’t fool all of the people all of the time. But you can fool the old, the poor, and the uneducated all of the time.


11 posted on 01/08/2008 11:31:36 PM PST by Arthur McGowan
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To: tcrlaf

Why would we listen to anything they say, foo; me once.....


12 posted on 01/08/2008 11:41:14 PM PST by Soliton (Fred and Hunter and Paul is the only true conservative!!!!!!!)
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To: tcrlaf
It just boggles my mind how and why Clinton's voters managed to fly under the pollsters' radars. Not one, but every one of them. Not one poll had Clinton leading.
13 posted on 01/08/2008 11:42:52 PM PST by libh8er
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To: tcrlaf
all of which come from CNN’s cross-tabulated exit polls

The day I believe CNN will be the day Al Gore will be shoveling out my driveway.

14 posted on 01/08/2008 11:43:40 PM PST by Blind Eye Jones
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To: tcrlaf
They were wrong because they underestimated Clinton's ability to draw out her base.

In other words the pollsters misjudged the number of likely voters- those who told the pollsters weren't likely to vote but did get off their butts and went and voted for Clinton.

15 posted on 01/08/2008 11:48:52 PM PST by libh8er
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To: tcrlaf
A VERY good analysis of what happened... >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> You are kidding, right?

"How Clinton Won-(Popular Among The Old, The Poor, And the Uneducated)"....add the dead and the bussed in.

Hillery has a lot of explaining to do on why her poll projections were off so far while the Republican ones were highly accurate. She brought in a lot of voters , but from where?

"We got out a lot of the vote" means an entirely different thing to a Clinton. Likely many were from Maine.

16 posted on 01/09/2008 1:10:55 AM PST by Candor7
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To: Salvation

**-She won Catholics, 44% to 27%. **

I don’t know any devoted, practising Catholic who would vote for Hillary666 (or any pro-abortion candidate).

Agreed, there’s a lot of CINO’s—cradle Catholics who go to mass at Easter and Christmas only—they’re the most likely Hillary666 supporters.


17 posted on 01/09/2008 3:09:30 AM PST by RooRoobird20 (Thankfully Convered Catholic)
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To: libh8er
It just boggles my mind how and why Clinton's voters managed to fly under the pollsters' radars. Not one, but every one of them.

Two words: Karl Rove.

Hillary is the GOP's preferred opponent. Now she's going to win ... but only after alienating African-American voters who were led to the mountaintop and then shoved off the cliff.

Now we know why Rove left the White House. He's controlling the democrat race with the disgronificator. Magnificent bastard.

18 posted on 01/09/2008 3:29:43 AM PST by sphinx
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To: tcrlaf

Gov freebies always attract this crowd.


19 posted on 01/09/2008 4:19:37 AM PST by wolfcreek (The Status Quo Sucks!)
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To: tcrlaf
This supports the idea that Clinton won by mobilizing the traditional Democratic coalition that is demographically inclined to her.

IOW, voters "with needs".

Snort.

20 posted on 01/09/2008 4:20:39 AM PST by mewzilla (In politics the middle way is none at all. John Adams)
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To: wolfcreek
The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.

Alexis de Tocqueville

21 posted on 01/09/2008 4:21:48 AM PST by mewzilla (In politics the middle way is none at all. John Adams)
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To: mewzilla

How True!


22 posted on 01/09/2008 4:35:13 AM PST by wolfcreek (The Status Quo Sucks!)
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To: wolfcreek
And for more on how Hillie intends to win, watch the video at this link....

Chris Matthews: Democratic establishment will 'kill the fire of insurgency'

I still can't believe this isn't generating one mother of a stink...

23 posted on 01/09/2008 4:39:12 AM PST by mewzilla (In politics the middle way is none at all. John Adams)
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To: mewzilla

ping


24 posted on 01/09/2008 5:03:27 AM PST by victim soul
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To: tcrlaf

Funny. I remember a MSM statement a few years ago claiming Christians were “poor, uneducated and easy to lead.”

I am waiting for headlines now claiming that those voters belong now to Clinton.


25 posted on 01/09/2008 5:19:31 AM PST by Mr. Brightside
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To: tcrlaf

These are dems we are talking about....so are you sure?


26 posted on 01/09/2008 6:46:52 AM PST by svcw (There is no plan B.)
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