Posted on 01/11/2008 11:24:25 AM PST by Checkers
lol
>> McCain is relying on Democrat crossover votes and the stupid vote to win the nomination and he needs the conservative vote to be fragmented between as many candidates as possible.
The conservative vote won’t necessarily be fragmented ... ideally, it’ll be with the only conservative — Fred Thompson.
To the extent it is currently fragmented, it is because conservatives haven’t had a flagbearer, so they’ve been forced to choose between a law-and-order conservative with questionable social policies (Giuliani), a social conservative with questionable economic policies (Huckabee), and a newly-minted “conservative” with questionable honesty regarding his actual beliefs (Romney).
Thompson’s performance last night showed that conservatism is alive in this race ... and it live in Thompson.
>> If Fred manages to gain enough momentum where he’d be a threat to McCain’s chances, he’ll self-destruct his own campaign.
This is nonsense. Why would he self-destruct his own campaign?
H
McCain and Huck are the threats to Conservatism and the GOP, not necessarily in that order. That takes things to a whole different level. Huck’s rise was shocking, his persistence has stunned the hacks in the GOP and they are in serious damage control. It is a whole new ball game and there maybe a new team on the horizon.
Of course. Huck has poisoned this process and has delivered the nomination to McCain at the expense of either Romney or Thompson — the only two who could have held the coalition together.
Huck sickens me.
I wouldn’t assume anything. Fred has fired up the conservative base here in South Carolina after his performance last night and has been the topic of discussion on talk radio all day.
So are Rudy and Myth. They're the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse for conservatism.
McCain appears to be spanking Willard in Michigan and yet Willard won't criticize him, even though he desperately needs a win there. McCain has a nine-point lead, but all Willard does is lay back and take it. They're in cahoots.
Anyways, even if I didn’t, think about it. What would be the effect of a McCain implosion in the General Election. No candidate gong into November and the GOP branded as the party who ran an emotionally unstable person for the Oval Office?
Yeah, that will build confidence in the GOP...
The goal is for him to implode before that. Clean and simple. Best way to do that, get him frustrated.
If you have watch any of the debates, you will see the visceral hatred McCain has for Romney. McCain wants to knock Romney out now in Michigan. He may very well do it. In the meantime, Huckabee has been allied with McCain in going against Romney. And then you wind up with Fred who is trying to knock out Huckabee, his greatest nemisis in what both perceive as their power base, i.e., the South. Finally, McCain is currently ahead in SC and hopes to ride a Michigan victory to a big win in SC.
Romney and McCain have never been allies and never will be.
That’s great to hear. Please keep us posted.
That all changed.
What goes around comes around, Huck.
Concur. Imagine this for the autumn: an exhausting campaign against either Obama or Hillary, brutal for anyone let alone a 71-year old man.
Then, exhausted, in a televised debate, either Obama or Hillary gets this turkey-neck old man to lose his temper.
Election over.
>> They are all running as conservatives, including Giuliani.
I think its a bit more nuanced than that. They’re all trying to highlight their conservative credentials, to the extent that they can, because this is the Republican primary after all. But, they’re not all drawing from the conservative voter base. Right now, Huckabee is drawing the conservative base ... partially because of his religiosity, and partially because he hasn’t endured much scrutiny of his economic record.
McCain draws largely independents. Giuliani tends to draw social liberals who prefer conservative foreign policy and economics. Romney’s running as a conservative, but his record doesn’t bear out consistent conservatism (and, he’s not getting a ton of traction among the conservative masses).
Until last night, there wasn’t a Reagan conservative in the race ... someone subscribing to social, fiscal, and foreign affairs conservatism — and whose record bears out that support on all three fronts. The Reagan-conservative vote is currently fractured between Huck, Giuliani and Romney ... Thompson has the best chance of uniting it.
H
Here is the latest Fox SC poll McCain has put lots of effort into SC having held 69 events in the state since Jan 2007. He has gobbled up 48 endorsements from SC state legislators compared to 12 for Fred, 10 for Mitt, and 6 for Huckabee. McCain's support comes from the large military population of the state, retired and active duty, who live around the large Charleston naval base and Parris Island Marine training base (MCRD). His USNA and war hero background coupled with the fact that he has several sons in the military including one in Iraq serve in him in good stead. He will be tough to beat because he does have such solid support.
The immigration issue does play well in SC. The question is how many single issue voters are there and does national security and the Iraq war trump that issue for some voters? I can't see McCain finishing any worse than second and he has to be considered the favorite to win at this point.
There are too many alliances. I can’t keep them straight.
The Thompson people can’t evade this. This is strictly and only about him. Remember? Remember how a vote for Y is only a vote for Y and has no bearing on Z? Remember how the ultra conservatives seeking a 3rd party said that a vote for Joe Rambo is only a vote for Rambo and does not deny the GOP candidate a vote needed to defeat the Dem? Remember how the vote for Rambo was constrained only to that one designee and nothing around him was relevant?
Well, guess what. Thompson’s failures to compete directly with McCain are limited and exclusive to strictly him. Nothing around him is relevant. It is HE who is backstabbing the efforts last year to stop amnesty. It is HE who is spitting on the fervor to punish McCain for it. It is HE and only HE that we are talking about. How can it be possible that y’all’s support for a man — making excuses for a man — who has yet, in any significant way, to attack McCain: Uber Leader of Amnesty is somehow not a statement of support for amnesty. Silence is not what one calls powerfully persuasive in politics and that’s all the dedicated anti amnesty forces get from Thompson re McCain.
There is nowhere to run and hide on this. These are abject failures. Romney has taken his shots, repeatedly, powerfully. Thompson’s shots start . . . when? Where are his millions in media buys attacking McCain’s amnesty? Where are they? Doesn’t have millions? Then he needs to be playing in a lower league.
Here is the latest Fox SC poll McCain has put lots of effort into SC having held 69 events in the state since Jan 2007. He has gobbled up 48 endorsements from SC state legislators compared to 12 for Fred, 10 for Mitt, and 6 for Huckabee. McCain's support comes from the large military population of the state, retired and active duty, who live around the large Charleston naval base and Parris Island Marine training base (MCRD). His USNA and war hero background coupled with the fact that he has several sons in the military including one in Iraq serve in him in good stead. He will be tough to beat because he does have such solid support.
The immigration issue does play well in SC. The question is how many single issue voters are there and does national security and the Iraq war trump that issue for some voters? I can't see McCain finishing any worse than second and he has to be considered the favorite to win at this point.
When was the change? I’d like to know because I am headed down to SC next week to derail McCain and highlight his pro-amnesty stance.
Exactly. How soon people forget 2000...
Now do that in the General...
How about zero. They’re all spot on, unfortunately
McCain is also drawing from moderate Reps and some conservatives who believe that the national security and the Iraq war trumps all else. Even Jim Robinison has essentially endorsed McCain if Thompson falls short.
The Reagan-conservative vote is currently fractured between Huck, Giuliani and Romney ... Thompson has the best chance of uniting it.
I don't know how Giuliani got in there, but if you are placing your hopes on Fred, he has a long ways to go. He is polling in single digits in SC. If he doesn't have a good showing in SC, he is toast. Huckabee and Thompson are counting on the South being their power base. If Huckabee defeats Thompson decisively in SC, I don't see how Thompson goes on to FL and Super Tuesday with any real hope of winning.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.