Posted on 01/17/2008 7:00:24 AM PST by gbscott1954
I have heard the possibility of a brokered convention kicked around alot on here. I think the possibility of the deadlocked convention is in direct proportion to how badly all our current candidates want the presidency. They have a potential to remain past Super Tuesday, even if they do not do well. Romney has the money. Huckabee has the core evangelicals, and seems to be a true believer in his “God chosen” task of being president. Rudy will probably do well on Super Tuesday, perhaps winning a couple of the Northern primaries. I do tend to believe that McCain, especially if he does not win in S.C. and do well in FL, will have nowhere to go. He has no built-in constituency. Maybe the foreign policy hawks, but little else. Fred, if he can catch a wind from S.C. (I don’t think he has to win, but do well. Finish ahead of Huck maybe), will gain more support in the South and win several of the Southern states. Then, one or more of the candidates will horse trade, or positions will harden and we will have a no-holds barred fight up to the convention.
I am not one who believes that we will have a long-deadlocked convention. The days of many, many ballots are gone. The simple reason is that it used to take 2/3 of the delegates to win. That is why the 1924 Dem Convention was so disastrous, with 103 ballots before a virtual unknown was nominated. It may go two or three ballots, but not more. There will be some kind of horse trading or a break for the guy on top with momentum. I predict that if there is a brokered convention the nomination will go to the man who has campaigned, demonstrated some winning power, and can appeal to all factions of the party. Whether you are a Thompson supporter or not, it is obvious that he is acceptable to all factions. The social conservatives can accept him on his abortion/gay rights stands. The fiscal conservatives can accept him for his pro-growth, anti-tax stand. The foreign policy conservatives can support him for his commitment to stay strong militarily and conduct the war on terror to win.
My conviction is that NONE of the other candidates are acceptable to all wings of the party. Does this guarantee victory in the Fall? I am not sure, but I do think that when you place Fred in debate against the best that the Dems have to offer he will surely shine. Just my thoughts here. I would welcome comments.
“That’s right. The history of brokered convention candidates is dismal”
Dewey beats Truman!
I may have mis-heard but other thing Newt has been saying lately have made me uneasy about him.
I was looking at Intrade today. I hate that site. Manipulation by money to get a point across. But I noticed that in the long list of names, Condoleezza Rice was on the list. I stopped and thought how she wasn’t running and that people even saying that at this point and time would be a long shot. But then I thought back to the Brokered Convention Talk... and a amusing what if scenario popped into my head. now I know this will probably never happen, but I’ll say it anyway...
The Dems are blasting each other over what sex the candidate is, or what race. Then the dems call truces, yet people still swoon over the possibility of either a woman president or black president. If such things actually mattered, imagine a Rice running for president from a Brokered Convention. I bet that would make the dems happy.
See? Amusing thought. That’s all.
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